The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played 10 games in 2023 and have seven left to try to capture their goal of a third straight NFC South total. At 4-6 and a game back of the New Orleans Saints, the Buccaneers know they can control their own destiny, but they'll battle hard every remaining weekend to get there. The playoff stretch run is under way, and it's time for the Bucs to scrap.
"We [have] to scrap," said Head Coach Todd Bowles. "We [have] to fight for everything we get, we understand that, and we're prepared for it."
Four of the Bucs remaining games are against division opponents, but that's not what's most important, which is the next game. That one requires a trip to Indianapolis to face the 5-5 Colts, who are coming off a bye week and will be looking to maintain the momentum they went into it with wins over Carolina and New England. The Colts are two games behind the Jaguars in the AFC South but it's functionally three because they've already lost twice to Jacksonville. However, Indy is also chasing a Wild Card berth, and in that race they're only a game out of the last spot in a very top-heavy and crowded AFC race. Six teams in that conference have records of either 6-4 or 5-5, so every win is going to be crucial in determining who ends up with the last couple postseason spots.
The Colts have already won one more game in 2023 than they did last year, and that's despite losing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson, the fourth overall pick in the draft, just five starts into his career to a shoulder injury. With veteran Gardner Minshew at the helm, the Colts have remained productive on offense, ranking ninth in the league in scoring and 10th in rushing yards per game. After he missed the first four games of the season, in the process getting the new contract he was seeking, Jonathan Taylor has been eased back into the offense, going from six carries in his first game back to 23 against the Patriots before the bye. Minshew, meanwhile, has completed 63.7% of his passes and thrown eight touchdown passes against six interceptions.
The Colts made some rather unexpected news coming out of the bye week when they waived three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard. Leonard's playing time had dipped as he struggled to regain that All-Pro form following a series of back injuries that required surgery. In his place, sixth-year linebacker Zaire Franklin has stepped up as the leader of a defense that ranks 26th in points allowed and 25th in yardage allowed. Franklin's 117 tackles rank third in the NFL and he's also logged 1.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and three passes defensed. The Indy defense features a strong and multi-faced pass rush, with ends Dayo Odeyingbo, Kwity Paye and Samson Ebukam plus defensive tackle DeForest Buckner all having between four and six sacks. The Colts rank 10th overall in sacks per pass play.
The Buccaneers started to right the ship after a midseason losing streak when they handled another AFC South team, the Titans, rather easily in a 20-6 win in Week 10. That was followed by a difficult task against the loaded 49ers in San Francisco, but even after taking a loss in Week 11 the Buccaneers believe they can rebuild the momentum from their 3-1 start and get back in the thick of the playoff hunt.
"It's still in our hands," said safety Antoine Winfield Jr. "We've got to go ahead and make sure we take care of our business. We've got to win our games that we're supposed to win. It's still there for us. We still have hope in that aspect.
"It's getting serious – it's getting down to the wire. Coming down to these final games, we've got to make sure that we get some wins under our belt so we can make this playoff push."
The Buccaneers and Colts kick off at 1:00 p.m. on Sunday, November 26 at Lucas Oil Stadium as part of a big slate of Thanksgiving weekend football. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs seek their third road win of the season.
TOP STORYLINES
Defensive Shuffling – While the Colts made the high-profile move of the week within their defense with the waiver of Leonard, the Buccaneers may quietly have to make some major decisions on that side of the ball, too. Linebacker Lavonte David (groin) and cornerbacks Carlton Davis (hip) and Jamel Dean (ankle) all underwent MRI examinations on Monday after suffering injuries in San Francisco, and it's possible some or all of them could miss the Week 12 game in Indianapolis. In addition, safety Ryan Neal missed that game with a thumb injury. The Buccaneers deployed seven different rookies on defense at various times in the 49ers game, some by necessity after that injury. Will the Bucs need to once again turn to inexperienced defenders like cornerback Josh Hayes, safety Kaevon Merriweather and linebacker SirVocea Dennis? Will the stacked injuries require some roster maneuvering to ensure there is enough depth at each position? And if the Bucs are forced into multiple lineup changes, how well will the defense be able to hold up against an Indianapolis attack that is averaging 24.2 points per game and had scored at least 27 points in three of their last four games before the bye?
Protective Services – The Buccaneers rank fifth in the NFL in sacks per pass play allowed on offense, so the protection for Baker Mayfield has obviously been a strength this season. It's just been a little bit less of a strength in recent weeks. Mayfield was sacked a season-high four times in the loss to the 49ers, and while it's fair to note that San Francisco has one of the most loaded defensive fronts in the NFL, the Colts happen to have a good number of dangerous pass rushers as well. Mayfield was sacked an average of once per game through the Bucs' first five contests; in the last five, that average has jumped to three per game. Fortunately for the Buccaneers, Mayfield has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league in terms of operating under pressure, but like every other passer, he's going to be better when he has time to read his routes and get off clean throws. Samson Ebukam has proved to be an impactful addition in free agency and former first-round pick Kwity Paye appears to be coming into his own in his third season. The interior of the line can also get a good push with veteran Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner, who is well on his way to his sixth straight season with at least sacks, and offseason addition Taven Bryan. The Bucs' efforts to keep the Colts' pass-rushers at Bay could be complicated if the leg injury that star left tackle Tristan Wirfs suffered in San Francisco limits him or keeps him out of the lineup.
Red Light, Green Light – One of the most decisive areas of the game on Sunday could be the portion of the field between the Bucs' goal line and their 20-yard line. The Buccaneers' defense has routinely turned on the red light when an opponent invades its red zone this season, ranking first in the league in touchdown percentage allowed on those trips. Even after the 49ers got two touchdowns on four red zone incursions last week, the Buccaneers have allowed only 34.4% of such drives to end in the end zone. Tampa Bay's defense also ranks first in goal-to-go touchdown efficiency, at 44.4% allowed. However, the Indianapolis offense has also been quite good in this part of the field, scoring a touchdown on 60.0% of its red zone drives. That's good enough to tie for sixth in the NFL. Yards are hard to come by in that condensed are of the field, so while Indy's average of 3.47 yards per play in the red zone may not seem impressive, it's actually the third-best mark in the NFL. On the other side of the ball, it's not a matchup of strengths, as the Bucs are tied for 28th in red zone touchdown efficiency on offense and the Colts rank 19th on defense. Still, the outcome there could be critical. If it ends up being a close game, as most of them are, the difference between three points and seven on any given drive could swing the outcome.
The Main Takeaway – The Buccaneers lost a fumble and threw an interception in San Francisco in Week 11, while their defense did not come up with a takeaway for just the second time this season. It was only the second time in 10 games that Tampa Bay lost the turnover battle, and the first time the ratio was -2 or worse. All in all, the Buccaneers have still been good in this category, tying for fifth in the league with a +6 turnover ratio. Most impressively, the Buccaneers have allowed their 10 giveaways to be turned into just nine total points, so the team has a +21 ratio in terms of scoring off turnovers. The Colts haven't been bad regards to turnover ratio, either, tying for 13th in the league at +1, but their opponents have turned those takeaways into 51 points. That's the kind of opportunities the Buccaneers will be seeking in Indy, as they are 3-2 this season when winning the turnover battle and 1-4 when it's equal or favors the opponent. The Bucs are 3-0 when they win that battle by at least two and 0-3 when they allow more points off turnovers than they score. As coaches often say, turnovers come in bunches, and that was true for the Bucs earlier in the season. Of late, though, they've hit a dry spell, with just three takeaways in the last four games, resulting in a total of 10 points. To keep the high-scoring Colts from rolling the scoreboard, and to put their own offense in advantageous positions, the Buccaneers will try to get back on the turnover train this weekend.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. vs. Buccaneers CB Zyon McCollum
Michael Pittman Jr., a first-round pick in 2020 and the son of former Buccaneers running back Michael Pittman, may be having his best season in his fourth year in the league. Pittman's averaging career bests in both receptions (6.6) and receiving yards (67.7) per game, and he's by far the Colts' leading pass-catcher (though rookie Josh Downs has been coming on strong). The 6-4, 223-pound Pittman is a very physical receiver who uses his big frame to keep balls away from defenders, and he has reliable hands. Pittman's average of 10.3 yards per catch doesn't scream 'downfield threat,' but he can be effective on deeper passes due to his ability to high-point the ball. Zyon McCollum isn't a listed starter for the Buccaneers but there seems to be a good chance he'll play this Sunday with both Jamel Dean (ankle) and Carlton Davis (hip) dealing with new injuries. The 6-2, 199-pound McCollum has the size to compete with Pittman and he has a speed advantage as one of the Bucs' fastest defenders. He has frequently been needed to fill in for Davis and Dean this season and, according to the coaching staff, has taken a leap in his play in his second season due to a more innate understanding of the Bucs' defensive schemes.
2. Buccaneers T Tristan Wirfs vs. Colts DE Samson Ebukam
Tristan Wirfs (leg) is also dealing with a new injury so it can't be said with absolute certainty that he'll be out there to battle Ebukam and the rest of the Colts' rushers on Sunday. If he can't go, then this key matchup would presumably be between Ebukam and Justin Skule, who came in for Wirfs for the two plays he missed on Sunday. Wirfs' 2023 transition from right tackle, where he won a first-team AP All-Pro selection, has been so seamless that he now ranks as one of the NFL's best on the left side. Wirfs did not allow a single sack until last week in San Francisco, which occurred a few plays after he came back in following his leg injury. His incredible mobility and agility, combined with great strength, makes it very hard for pass-rushers to either get around him or go through him. Ebukam will be another worthy challenge, however. The Colts don't flip-flop their ends much, so Ebukam should spend most of his day on Wirfs' end of the line. The former Ram and Colt has proved to be a quality addition in free agency, as he led the Colts through nine games with 33 QB pressures and has contributed 4.0 sacks, nine quarterback hits and a forced fumble. Ebukam will probably try to beat Wirfs with speed, as he has put up a scintillating average get-off time of 0.77 seconds, the best of his career, according to Next Gen Stats.
3. Colts G Quenton Nelson vs. Buccaneers DL Calijah Kancey
The release of Shaquille Leonard by the Colts would likely have been unthinkable just a couple years ago, as the 2018 second-round pick opened his career by earning first-team AP All-Pro honors as a rookie then did so again in two of the next three seasons. That was an incredible draft for the Colts, who also picked an immediate first-team All-Pro in the first round in guard Quenton Nelson. Took that honor home in his first three seasons and was a Pro Bowler in each of his first five campaigns. The 6-5, 330-pound Nelson may not be at the absolute peak of his playing prowess in 2023 but he has still allowed just one sack, according to Pro Football Focus, and he has won so many accolades because he's extremely powerful, he wants to intimidate his opponents and he moves well for such a big man. The Buccaneers view Kancey, this year's 18th-overall pick, as the key to opening up their pass rush, as he brings a speed and quickness element into play next to the hugely powerful Vita Vea. Despite missing most of four games with a calf injury, Kancey has delivered 2.0 sacks, six tackles for loss and seven quarterback pressures. He has also allayed concerns about his ability to stand up against the run due to his size, faring well in that portion of the game. With fellow 2023 draftee Yaya Diaby heating up in the second half of the season, the Bucs are hoping for a similar run from their first-round pick.
4. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Colts CB Jaylon Jones
Now in his 10th season, Mike Evans just continues to produce like the elite receiver he is on a weekly basis. He has scored in seven of the Bucs' 10 games this season, including four of the last five, as Baker Mayfield looks for him both on plays around the goal line and the occasional deep shot. Evans leads the Buccaneers with 780 yards on 48 receptions, meaning he is just 220 yards away from his 10th consecutive 1,000-yard season. He is responsible for five of the Bucs' nine longest completions of the season, including the only two of 50 or more yards, and his current average of 16.3 yards per catch would be his highest in four seasons. Jaylon Jones has taken on a larger role in the Colts' secondary than was probably expected after he was drafted in the seventh round this past spring. However, injuries to a number of Indy corners, including second-round pick JuJu Brents, have created an opportunity for the former Texas A&M star and he has ran with it. The 6-2, 203-pound defender has the size and length to not be overwhelmed by Evans in contested-catch situations. He has started the last three games in Brents' absence and overall has contributed 16 tackles and two passes defensed. While opposing quarterbacks have a 99.4 passer rating when throwing to the player to which he is the nearest defenders, Jones showed what he was capable of in a Week Seven game against Cleveland in which he held Amari Cooper to no receptions on three targets on 18 routes in coverage.
