The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rushed out to a 10-0 lead over the visiting Baltimore Ravens on Monday night in Week Seven but were eventually submerged by the twin tidal waves of Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, plus their own red zone woes and – worst of all – a rash of injuries to their top playmakers. The Ravens left with a 41-31 victory in a game that featured nearly 1,000 yards of combined offense, and the Bucs were left with a 4-3 record that is still good enough for a tie for first in the NFC South with the Atlanta Falcons.
Appropriately enough, those very Falcons are the next team coming to Raymond James Stadium, as the two will meet on Sunday, October 27 as part of the NFL's Week Eight slate. It will be a rematch of a Week Five contest in Atlanta in which the Bucs let a late lead slip away and eventually succumbed in overtime, 36-30. The game will decide, at least temporarily, who leads the all-time head-to-head series, as right now it is tied at 31 wins apiece. Much more critically, it also could be one of the more decisive outcomes in this year's NFC South race. The winner will have a one-game lead in that race, but if Atlanta gets the victory they will own a hammer of a tiebreaker with a season sweep of the Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay has a short week to prepare for this enormous game, and those preparations took on an added level of difficulty when injuries knocked out both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin on Monday night, the latter likely for the remainder of the season. More on that unwelcome development below. On the flip side, the Buccaneers' trio of running backs – Rachaad White, Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker – have emerged as a collective force, most recently accounting for 226 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns against the Ravens.
The Falcons also come into the showdown in Tampa coming off a loss at home in Week Eight. Seattle intercepted Kirk Cousins twice and Geno Smith threw a pair of touchdown passes for the Seahawks, who pulled away in the second half for a 34-14 decision. This came despite good output from the Falcons trio of top-10 picks at the skill positions, as running back Bijan Robinson ran for 103 yards and a score, wide receiver Drake London caught six passes for 63 yards and his fifth touchdown of the season and tight end Kyle Pitts snared seven passes for 65 yards.
The Buccaneers are just 2-2 in home games this season and would like to get one more mark in the win column before going on a stretch that features just two games at Raymond James Stadium in eight weeks. The NFC South won't necessarily be decided this coming Sunday, but there's a good chance both teams will look back at this one at the end of the season as a major reason why the final standings are what they are. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs dive back into divisional play.
TOP STORYLINES
Plans C and D – Chris Godwin is the NFL's leader in receptions, with 50, while Mike Evans is tied for the NFL lead with six touchdown receptions. The pair has accounted for 911 of the Buccaneers' 1,859 passing yards, or nearly 50%, and have been on the receiving end of 11 of Baker Mayfield's league-leading 18 touchdown passes. Godwin is also the NFL leader in yards after catch, and he brings an element to the Buccaneers' offense that will be difficult to replicate with him sidelined by his major ankle injury. Evans, who suffered an apparently significant hamstring injury nearly making a second touchdown catch on Monday night, is one of the NFL's best deep ball threats and Mayfield's favorite target around the goal line. If both are out for any significant amount of time, the Buccaneers will need second-year man Trey Palmer and rookie Jalen McMillan to step up in a big way. Palmer, who would likely step in for Evans at the X position, has five catches in five games played, while McMillan has six in five games. They have each hauled in one touchdown pass. Veteran Sterling Shepard also figures to play a lot and could take over in the slot and try to be Mayfield's go-to target on short, quick passes. With rookie Kameron Johnson also going on injured reserve earlier this week, the Buccaneers essentially have to make some additions to the receiving corps, perhaps from the practice squad (Ryan Miller, Tanner Knue) or from outside source.
Southern Supremacy – As noted above, the winner of Sunday's game in Tampa will walk away with a one-game lead in the NFC South race near the midpoint of the regular season. Atlanta is already 3-0 against division opponents, having already logged one win against each of the other three teams. The Buccaneers are 1-1. Last year, Tampa Bay won the division with a 9-8 record thanks to a tiebreaker edge over New Orleans against common opponents. In 2022, the Bucs also won the division with just a one-game lead in the overall standings, and in 2020, the Saints won the South with a one-game edge over the Buccaneers after sweeping Tampa Bay during the regular season. It is difficult to overstate the importance of games within the division, and the Bucs only have four of them left. In addition, the winner of the game may control the season narrative going forward. Despite Tampa Bay winning the last three division titles and retaining virtually all of their key players from last year, the Falcons were considered the favorites to take the South crown this season after the addition of quarterback Kirk Cousins. Notably, Cousins had perhaps his best game yet for the Falcons after…
Containing Cousins – …he threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns in the aforementioned 36-30 overtime win over the Buccaneers. Cousins reputation as a Bucs slayer may be a bit overhyped, thanks largely to the "You Like That?" game in Washington in 2015, in which he led the home team on a massive comeback to secure a 31-30 victory. Overall, Cousins is just 2-2 in four starts against Tampa Bay, including a loss in last year's season opener in Minnesota. Still, it's hard to argue with 500 yards and four touchdowns, as Cousins seemed to find open targets with great ease throughout the game against the Bucs in Week Five. Since that game, starting cornerback Jamel Dean has been placed on injured reserve with a hamstring injury and rookie slot corner Tykee Smith sustained a concussion on Monday night that may render him unavailable this coming Sunday. Cousins seems to be getting more and more comfortable with his array of weapons in Atlanta, which includes those first-round picks mentioned earlier as well as Darnell Mooney and Tyler Allgeier. The veteran quarterback has thrown for 1,830 yards and 10 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 91.1, though he has been intercepted seven times. Rookie first-rounder Michael Penix got a brief cameo at the end of Sunday's loss to the Seahawks, but he threw just one pass and this offense clearly belongs to Cousins this season as long as he remains healthy.
Monster Dash – Halloween is approaching and the Buccaneers may have a monster in their house. Specifically, a "three-headed monster" is developing in their backfield, as a one-game absence by starter Rachaad White allowed second-year man Sean Tucker to show off his skills in Week Six at New Orleans. After Tucker produced 192 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns against the Saints to win NFC Offensive Player of the Week it seemed unlikely that the Bucs would put him back on the shelf when White returned. Sure enough, the Bucs were able to follow through with their plans to get all three backs involved against Baltimore, and they combined to put up big numbers. In this particular case, it was White leading the way with 111 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, 71 of which came on six catches. It was Tucker with a big assist from Irving in Week Six, and it's Irving who currently leads the trio in rushing yards (351), yards from scrimmage (475) and total touchdowns (three). The Bucs plan to ride the hot hand with this talented group of backs, and it's difficult to predict who that will be on a week-to-week basis. More importantly, the Bucs want to strike the right kind of balance that has allowed them to rack up 562 rushing yards over the past three games, tied for the fourth-most prolific three-game stretch at any point in franchise history.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Falcons WR Drake London vs. Buccaneers CB Tyrek Funderburk
In his third season, London, the eighth-overall pick in the 2022 draft, has fully emerged as the number-one target in Atlanta's passing attack. His 44 catches, 491 receiving yards and five touchdown grabs all lead the Falcons, as do his 62 targets. After catching just two passes for 15 yards in a season-opening loss to Pittsburgh, London has produced with impressive consistency, with six or more catches in each of the last six games and 54 or more yards in all six. He's snared a touchdown catch in five of his seven outings. That includes a 12-catch, 154-yard explosion against the Buccaneers in Week Five. The physical 6-3, 213-pound wideout would have had a good size matchup with Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean, but Dean is now on injured reserve so that job goes to rookie Tyrek Funderburk. Funderburk came to the Buccaneers as an undrafted free agent out of Appalachian State in May but impressed the coaching staff immediately and made the active roster despite missing much of training camp due to injury. Funderburk is good in zone coverage, playing with anticipation and driving quickly on the ball. He also has the skills to hold his own on man-to-man snaps, though he will give up five inches of height in his battles with London.
- Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell
This was originally going to be a look at Mike Evans, a noted Falcons killer, against Atlanta's top corner, but there's a good chance Evans will be unavailable on Sunday and the Bucs will need Palmer to step up in his place. Palmer has excellent speed and could get deep on Atlanta's secondary, but he's likely to get a physical matchup from Terrell, who will be trying to disrupt his routes at the start. Terrell has the smooth hips and good footwork of a top NFL cornerback, and he is one of five Atlanta defenders to record an interception this season. He also has three passes defensed, 33 tackles and a tackle for loss. Palmer didn't play in the first game against Atlanta this year because he had suffered a concussion a week earlier against Philadelphia. Before he left that game, he was starting to emerge into a more substantial role with three catches and a touchdown against the Eagles. Palmer was the Buccaneers' primary third receiver as a rookie and he hauled in 39 passes for 385 yards and three touchdowns in 2023. Third-round rookie Jalen McMillan took over that third-receiver role this season, but now the Buccaneers need both to step up in more prominent roles.
- Falcons T Jake Matthews vs. Buccaneers OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka
The sixth-overall pick in the 2014 draft, Matthews has been a long-time anchor for a good Falcons offensive line, and this year he's part of a group that has allowed the sixth-lowest sacks-per-pass-play percentage in the NFL (5.33%). Matthews is currently riding the NFL's longest active streak of games started, at 168, and he made the Pro Bowl in 2018. Matthews obviously has that somewhat elusive ability called availability, and he is one of the NFL's most consistent and reliable performers. So far this season, Pro Football Focus has credited him with allowing three sacks through the first seven game. Meanwhile, Tryon-Shoyinka is part of a Tampa Bay pass rush that is getting the job done by committee. The Buccaneers have racked up 17 quarterback sacks over the past four games, rising from the bottom of the league's ranking in sack percentage to a more respectable 19th (7.12%). Tryon-Shoyinka has one of the Bucs' 19 sacks, plus 14 tackles, two tackles for loss, two, quarterback hits, two passes defensed and a fumble recovery. Head Coach Todd Bowles likes to use Tryon-Shoyinka as a chess piece, occasionally moving him inside to rush up the middle or dropping him into coverage. When he does come around the edge, Tryon-Shoyinka has good bend the closing speed to get quarterbacks on the ground.
- Buccaneers G Cody Mauch vs. Falcons DL Grady Jarrett
Jarrett has been a stalwart for the Falcons on the other side of the trenches for almost as long as Matthews has held down left tackle. In his last full season, 2022, Jarrett recorded 6.0 sacks and 17 quarterback hits while providing that immensely valuable pressure straight up the middle. Jarrett missed half of last season due to injury but is back to his previous level of dominance. He is tied for the Falcons lead with 1.5 sacks and tops all Atlanta defenders with eight quarterback hits. Jarrett lines up all over in Atlanta's interior front, so at some point he is sure to test Mauch, the Bucs' second-year right guard. As a rookie, Mauch showed the footwork and athleticism to keep quick-twitch rushers like Jarrett from getting into creases, but he sometimes struggled with more powerful defenders. Mauch added bulk and strength in the offseason to become a more complete blocker in his second season; according to PFF he has allowed two sacks this season and been called for just one penalty. Mauch, who moves well on run schemes that involve linemen pulling to the other side of the line or out into the open field, has also helped the Bucs unlock an effective rushing attack for the first time in several seasons.
Another Key Storyline this week is our Moffitt Stories of Courage special guest, Kenrix Jones. Kendrix "KJ" Jones was only 40 when his life took an unimaginable turn in 2022, with an unexpected stage 4 colon cancer diagnosis. What he thought was a relentless flu turned into a harrowing reality when, after a week of enduring fever and fatigue, his wife urged him to seek help. The emergency room revealed a softball-sized mass in his colon, a shocking discovery that led to a frantic race against time. The very next day, on his youngest son's first birthday, KJ was whisked into emergency surgery, where toxins were removed from his body. Over the ensuing months, he battled through two grueling rounds of chemotherapy and endured multiple surgeries to remove the cancer that had aggressively invaded his body. Yet, despite the challenges, KJ remained anchored by the love of his wife and their three young boys who became his driving force in a fight that demanded every ounce of his strength. As a dedicated real estate agent, KJ navigated the complexities of his career and the challenges of fatherhood with an unwavering spirit, reminding us all of the resilience of the human heart when faced with the most daunting of trials. We are honored to host KJ at this week's game.
