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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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49ers-Buccaneers: Top Storylines & Key Matchups in Week 10

The Buccaneers have fared well against some of the NFC's top contenders this season and will try to snap a losing streak against last year's conference champions with San Francisco coming to town on Sunday

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In 2023, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers came out of the gates hot behind their new starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, rushing out to a 3-1 record. However, a 1-6 stretch followed, putting Tampa Bay on the fringes of the NFC playoff race and forcing them to go on a long winning streak down the stretch to win a third straight division title. This year, the Bucs were 3-1 again after a month of play but have dropped four of their last five, including the three most recent games. They've faced a tough schedule – their last three losses came against teams with a combined current record of 20-6 – and it isn't getting any easier this coming weekend.

Tampa Bay's next opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, are 4-4 but still widely considered one of the prime NFC playoff contenders. The Bucs want to avoid another full-on midseason swoon like last year – "Don't get used to losing," Head Coach Todd Bowles told his team in the postgame locker room on Monday night – which makes this steep Week 10 challenge an important one as their last chance to get a win before the bye week. The Bucs' recent slide has dropped them two games off the pace behind Atlanta in the NFC South race, greatly reducing their margin for error.

The 49ers are coming off their bye week which, when coupled with the Bucs' short week following a road Monday night game in Kansas City, is giving San Francisco a rather large edge in days of preparation and rest. That time off has also allowed the 49ers roster to get a little healthier; most notably, there is optimism in San Francisco that star running back Christian McCaffrey can make his debut on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

Despite a .500 record, the defending NFC champs have outscored their opponents by 28 points and have a yardage differential of +97.6 per game that leads the entire league. Their only loss by more than one score came against the undefeated Chiefs in Week Seven. The 49ers' most recent road trip ended in a 36-24 win over division-rival Seattle. They are a tough draw for a team desperate to get back in the win column, but after nearly toppling those same Chiefs on Monday, the Buccaneers believe they can prevail against any opponent.

"Just stay together," said Bowles of what his team needs to do to break its current streak. "We had less mistakes in this game. They beat us. We didn't really beat ourselves; they beat us at the end, and it came down to the end. We're not going to lose too many of those if we keep playing like this. As long as we're playing this hard and committing less mistakes, we feel good about our chances week-in and week-out, regardless of who we play."

Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs look to head into their bye week on a high note.

View the top images of Tampa Bay's Week 9 game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday, November 4th, 2024 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

TOP STORYLINES

The Return of CMC? – In 2023, Christian McCaffrey's first full season with the 49ers, he won the NFL's Offensive Player of the Year award. McCaffrey hasn't had a chance to defend his OPOTY title yet this season as he has been recovering from an Achilles tendon injury that took him out of the picture on the very eve of the regular season. Now, it looks like the Niners may finally be ready to deploy their most dangerous offensive weapon. The Buccaneers are quite familiar with McCaffrey from his five-plus seasons with the Carolina Panthers, and have actually had a modicum of success against him, particularly on the ground. McCaffrey has averaged 61.2 rushing yards per game against the Bucs in nine tries, which compares favorably to what many other NFL defenses have endured. That said, since McCaffrey was inserted into Kyle Shanahan's many-tentacled offense, he has produced 256 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in two games against Tampa Bay. When in peak health, McCaffrey often shoulders larger workloads than most NFL backs, sometimes playing nearly every offensive snap in a game, but will he be ready to jump into the same sort of role after missing nine weeks? The 49ers opened McCaffrey's practice window on Monday and he could come off injured reserve at any point; early indications from the West Coast are that the team believes he can play this weekend in Tampa. The Bucs' 19th-ranked run defense gave up 124 yards on Monday night, but it took the Chiefs 25 carries to get there, with an average of 3.5 yards per tote.

Who's Up Next for Bucs' Offense? – With 30 seconds left in regulation in the Buccaneers' upset bid at Kansas City on Monday night, they faced a second-and-goal from the Chiefs' one-yard line. Mayfield's first attempt from the one had gone in the direction of tight end Cade Otton, who has become his go-to target in the absences of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. When that didn't work, Mayfield turned to first-year wideout Ryan Miller and found him in an open space in the right half of the end zone. It was just the fifth reception of Miller's NFL career and his first of that game. It was his first touchdown scored. It's safe to say that when the season began in September the Bucs did not expect Miller to be the one in Mayfield's crosshairs in a crucial midseason moment. That's where the offense is at this point, however, with Godwin and Evans sidelined and rookie starter Jalen McMillan also out in Week Nine with a hamstring ailment. Over the past two games, different and sometimes unexpected players have stepped up in key moments. Otton has been the one constant, with 25 catches over the last three weeks, but many others have had their moments. Rakim Jarrett, fresh off injured reserve, made a trio of big catches down the stretch against Atlanta in Week Eight. Veteran Sterling Shepard came up big on the Bucs' final drive in Kansas City. Third running back Sean Tucker has had his moments. Perhaps the layer of uncertainty – Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen is impressively figuring this puzzle out on the fly – has made it harder for opposing defenses to prepare for Tampa Bay's evolving offense. Could there be a new hero in Week 10 against San Francisco. Payne Durham? Trey Palmer? Marquez Callaway? You never know.

Third and Critical – The Buccaneers' offense has been consistently winning on third downs, ranking second in the NFL with a 51.8% conversion rate that would easily be a new team record if maintained. The Bucs were just under 50% (five for 11) in their loss to the Chiefs but are consistently moving the chains, particularly when they can get those key moments down to third-and-six or less. Unfortunately for the home team this weekend, San Francisco has also been very good in this regard, ranking sixth in the NFL with a third-down success rate of 43.3%. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's defense ranks 23rd in trying to stop third down conversions – the Chiefs went 12-18 on Monday – and the San Francisco defense ranks 25th. In some games, turnovers can render a bunch of other stats moot, but in a game like the one the Bucs just played in Kansas City, with only one combined turnover between the teams, the one that can more regularly sustain drives will usually have the upper hand. Neither the Bucs nor 49ers have been egregious at giving the ball away this season, so Sunday's game could be another one in which third down success rate becomes the game-turning statistic. Which of these two offenses will come out on top in that key category?

Stacking Up With the Best – The Bucs' loss to Kansas City was their third in three tries against AFC opponents this season. Tampa Bay's other two defeats both came within the NFC South division, both against the Falcons. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have fared quite well against notable NFC contenders this season. They beat the Lions on the road in Week Two, which remains Detroit's only loss of the season so far. They beat Washington handily in their season opener, and the Commanders have since emerged as a powerhouse, winning seven of their last eight. And they beat Philadelphia with relative ease in Week Four; the Eagles have since won four straight to improve to 6-2. Now come the 49ers, who came close to beating Kansas City in the Super Bowl last year. The Buccaneers have to get into a tiebreaker situation at the end of the year for their overall "strength of victory" to matter in the playoff race, but this Sunday's game is a golden opportunity for Bowles' crew to show the league once again that they can hang with any contender in the conference.

KEY MATCHUPS

  1. 49ers G Dominick Puni vs. Buccaneers DL Calijah Kancey

Early returns suggest the 49ers struck gold (pun intended) with their third-round selection of Puni, the versatile lineman from Kansas, in this year's draft. In college, Puni played every position on the offensive line except right guard…and the 49ers immediately inserted him into right guard in their starting lineup. He has started all eight games so far and has yet to miss an offensive snap. According to Pro Football Focus, Puni has not yet allowed a sack this season, though he is credited with giving up 14 pressures. PFF grades him higher as a run blocker than a pass blocker and he has contributed to a fourth-ranked Niners rushing attack that has picked up 159.0 yards per game without Christian McCaffrey. Puni could be in for another welcome to the NFL moment in Week 10, however, when he and his linemates face a surging Bucs' defensive line. With Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea both healthy after some early-season injuries, the Bucs are getting consistent pressure up the middle. In Kansas City, Kancey and Vea accounted for all four of the Bucs' sacks of Patrick Mahomes and combined for six quarterback hits. Kancey has a very quick first step and a well-developed arsenal of pass-rush moves, and he often benefits from the extra attention that the huge and powerful Vea commands. Kancey has clearly shaken off any rust gathered as he missed the first five games of the season, and he is a challenge for any interior lineman, let alone a rookie.

  1. Buccaneers TE Cade Otton vs. 49ers LB Fred Warner

On Tuesday, Head Coach Todd Bowles said that Otton has stepped up into the main pass-catching role in the Bucs' offense after the losses of Evans and Godwin, and the numbers bear that out. Over the last three weeks, Otton has hauled in 25 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns, making him one of the NFL's most productive tight ends. Otton became a coaches favorite over his first two seasons by being extremely dependable and always doing exactly what he is tasked with on every play. In the last month, though, Otton has gone from steady and trustworthy to a legitimate weapon all over the field, showing incredible toughness after hard hits, ultra-reliable hands and an ability to run a wide variety of routes. He is a tight end version of the Niners' McCaffrey, playing nearly every offensive snap and contributing in many different ways, including as a blocker in the Bucs' resurgent rushing attack. Finding openings in the opposing defense won't be easy for him in Week 10, however, as the San Francisco unit features perhaps the NFL's best coverage linebacker in Fred Warner. Warner, who has already combined 66 tackles with two interceptions, six passes defensed and four forced fumbles, is so effective in the middle of the field that some opposing offenses don't even try to throw to that part of the grass. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, since drafting Warner in 2018 the 49ers have allowed the fewest completions of any NFL team on passes to the intermediate middle of the field.

  1. 49ers WR Deebo Samuel vs. Buccaneers S Jordan Whitehead

Like most of the 49ers' impressive array of skill-position players, Samuel has battled injuries at times this season, but in the team's most recent game in Week Eight he caught four passes for 71 yards and ran four times for 15 yards. For years, he has been a unique weapon in Kyle Shanahan's system, just as likely to run the ball out of the backfield as to take a short pass and tack on a ton of YAC. In his 2021 Pro Bowl campaign, Samuel racked up 1,405 yards and six touchdowns on 77 catches and 365 yards and eight scores on 59 runs. Prior to the 49ers Week Eight game against the Cowboys, according to NGS, Samuel was leading all NFL receivers in snaps taking out of the backfield and was second in forced missed tackles. A versatile weapon like this often calls for the attention of opposing safeties, who have to be quick at diagnosing whether the play is a run or a pass and providing support on a potential pass-catcher who is not immediately covered up by a cornerback. Whitehead is second on the Bucs' defense with 59 tackles and he has also broken up three passes. A downhill threat in the box who has been an enforcer since originally arriving in Tampa as a fourth-round pick, Whitehead more fully developed his deep coverage skills during two seasons with the Jets before returning this season. The Buccaneers' defense may need Whitehead to make sure Samuel doesn't go on too many YAC journeys on Sunday.

  1. Buccaneers T Tristan Wirfs vs. 49ers DE Nick Bosa

Wirfs made the seamless transition to left tackle in 2023, earning his third straight Pro Bowl invitation despite the switch from right tackle, and he now simply ranks as one of the NFL's best at a premium position. Wirfs is huge and agile, capable of staying in front of even the league's most dangerous edge rushers. He's also very good on the move, which has helped the Bucs get more out of gap runs this year than in recent seasons, propelling a rushing attack that ranks 10th in the league. PFF grades Wirfs as the best pass-blocking tackle in the NFL and has credited him with allowing zero sacks this season. Bosa will provide another worthy challenge. The 2022 NFL Defensive Player of the Year leads the 49ers with 4.5 sacks this year and has also been credited with 14 quarterback hits. Setting aside a 2020 season in which he lost all but two games to injury, Bosa has produced 58.0 sacks in 74 games played. In the 49ers' most recent contest before the bye, against Dallas, Bosa generated five QB pressures and a sack, and one of his pressures led to a Dak Prescott interception. When he harassed Seattle's Geno Smith with an incredible 14 pressures in Week Six, it marked the seventh time in his career that he has provided 10 or more pressures in a game. His ability to get an instant advantage on the opposing blocker at the snap can sometimes be overwhelming; in Week Four against New England, his average get-off at the snap was 0.51 seconds, the best by any player measured by NGS in the last seven seasons.

Another Key Storyline this week is our Moffitt Stories of Courage special guest, Jasmine Cherry. Jasmine's cancer journey is a powerful testament to resilience and the healing bonds of family. A dedicated member of Moffitt's Cell Therapy department, Jasmine was inspired to join the team after witnessing her grandparents battle cancer. Her dream job became a beacon of hope but that light dimmed when, less than a year later, she was diagnosed with leukemia. Initially, she dismissed her flu-like symptoms and bone pain, but severe chest pains led her to the ER, where her fight truly began. Jasmine endured chemotherapy, immunotherapy, radiation, and ultimately a bone marrow transplant, a procedure made all the more poignant by the fact that her younger brother, recently enlisted in the U.S. Air Force, became her donor. Now, as she approaches two years in remission this December, Jasmine reflects on how the very therapies she once relied on are those she helps manufacture for others, creating a full circle of hope. A fan of the Bucs and inspired by her favorite player, Mike Evans, Jasmine embodies the spirit of perseverance, grateful for the chance to give back to a community that once gave so much to her. We are honored to host Jasmine at a Bucs game.

cherry

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