The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had a very enjoyable final Sunday of 2024, beginning with their home game against Carolina, which they won going away, 48-14. Those who chose to stay up and watch the final game of the day later that evening (Head Coach Todd Bowles and running back Bucky Irving notably did not), went to bed happy despite some harrowing moments as Washington beat Atlanta in overtime. The combined result of that game was Tampa Bay moving back into first place in the NFC South at 9-7, ahead of the 8-8 Falcons, and taking back control of their playoff destiny. The Buccaneers will win their fourth straight division title with a win at home on Sunday against the New Orleans Saints or, barring that, a loss by the Falcons in Atlanta to the Panthers.
Meanwhile, the Saints dropped to 5-11 with a 25-10 loss to the visiting Las Vegas Raiders at the Superdome on Sunday. Amid a string of injuries to key offensive players, the Saints have lost four of five since their bye week and have averaged 11.4 points per game in that span. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler – who started for the Saints when the Bucs visited in Week Six while Derek Carr was dealing with an oblique injury – has also handled most of the work under center over the past three weeks. New Orleans tried out 2023 fourth-round pick Jake Haener against Washington in Week 15 but quickly turned back to Rattler when Haener struggled. The Saints plan to run a "simulated game" this week to see if Carr has progressed enough with his fractured left hand to be able to play, which will mostly hinge on whether he can functionally take a snap.
When the Buccaneers visited the Superdome in October, Dennis Allen was still the Saints' head coach, but he was fired on November 4 after his team's seventh loss in a row and has been replaced as the interim coach by Special Teams Coordinator Darren Rizzi. The Saints beat Atlanta and Cleveland in their first two games with Rizzi at the helm, but injuries to Carr, Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill, Chris Olave and Bub Means have made it difficult for the New Orleans' offense to produce with any consistency.
The Buccaneers and Saints will be doing battle at the same time that the Falcons and Panthers play their game, but Tampa Bay players won't need to do any scoreboard watching, as they only have to take care of their own business at hand to make the playoffs. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs try to lock down that fourth straight NFC crown.
TOP STORYLINES
Spoiler Saints – As noted above, the Saints have been struggling down the stretch, in no small part due to the aforementioned injuries. New Orleans has also traded star cornerback Marshon Lattimore since the last time they played the Buccaneers, and cornerback Paulson Adebo has landed on injured reserve. As of Tuesday, the Bucs were 13-point favorites to prevail at home on Sunday, their highest line of the season. All of that said, the Buccaneers are guaranteed not to take the Saints lightly given how comfortable New Orleans has been in Raymond James Stadium over the last half-dozen seasons. New Orleans has won five of its last six games in Tampa, with an average edge of 17 points in those five wins. The Bucs' lone win in that span was by one point in 2022. Midway through their 2020 Super Bowl-winning season, the 6-2 Buccaneers absorbed a 38-3 beating at Raymond James Stadium from the Saints. The 2021 Buccaneers won seven of their last eight regular season games en route to a 13-4 record; the lone loss in that span was a 9-0 blanking at home by New Orleans. Given the often contentious rivalry these two teams have established, a chance to play the role of playoff spoiler in Week 18 in Tampa should be more than enough to have the eliminated Saints playing very hard. The possible returns of Carr, Kamara and Olave, all of whom are trying to return this week, could boost the Saints as well.
Runaway Train – The Buccaneers' rushing attack is on a serious heater. Since the bye week, Tampa Bay has averaged 184.0 rushing yards per game across six contests, third in the NFL only to Baltimore (203.8) and Philadelphia (197.3). The Bucs' average of 5.55 yards per carry in that time is second best in the NFL, behind only Baltimore's 5.63. Rookie running back Bucky Irving has emerged as the team's primary ballcarrier and he is coming off his third 100-yard game of the season, during which he became the first Tampa Bay running back to post a 1,000-yard rushing season since Doug Martin 2015. Irving, Rachaad White and Sean Tucker have propelled Tampa Bay's ground game all the way up to fourth in the NFL in yards per game and third in yards per carry after the team ranked dead last in both categories each of the two previous seasons. The Buccaneers' offensive line has jelled into one of the NFL's best units, with Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke playing at a high level on the edges, guard Cody Mauch taking a huge leap forward in his second season and rookie Graham Barton anchoring the unit at center. As promised during the offseason, first-year Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen has greatly increased the diversity of run schemes the team utilizes, giving it answers against any sort of defensive approach. The Saints' run defense ranks 30th in the NFL, allowing 139.1 yards per game, and 31st in yards per carry allowed, at 4.86, so Sunday's game could be an opportunity for the Buccaneers to keep their steam train of a rushing attack at full speed.
M-1K-E Times 11 – The Buccaneers will specifically not make Mike Evans' quest for a record 11th straight 1,000-yard receiving season their primary goal on Sunday. The only truly necessary accomplishment, of course, is winning the game and thus the division, and Coen's play-calling and Baker Mayfield's decision-making will be based on that desired outcome. That doesn't mean Mayfield and the Buccaneers won't be eager to get Evans to that landmark, which would tie Jerry Rice for the longest such streak in NFL history. And it will definitely be one of the top storylines to follow on Sunday, whether or not he hits the mark. Evans, who already owns the NFL record for most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career, needs 85 more against the Saints to get to that goal again. Since coming back from a hamstring injury in Week 12, he has averaged 96.7 receiving yards per game and has gotten increasingly healthy after missing three games. Evans won't have long-time antagonist Marshon Lattimore to do battle with, as Lattimore is now a Washington Commander; he caught just two passes for 34 yards against the Saints in Week Six as he was already battling the hamstring injury he would later aggravate in Week Seven. The Buccaneers have their sights set on extending their season well into the new year and Evans would surely trade another 1,000-yard season for another division title. The Bucs hope they can finish the season with both.
Shaq Effect – The Buccaneers racked up five sacks of Panthers quarterback Bryce Young last Sunday, their highest total in a game since their last meeting with the Saints in Week Six. They didn't need blitzing linebackers or defensive backs to do it, either, as all five came from the defensive front – outside linebackers Yaya Diaby, Anthony Nelson and Chris Braswell had one each, as did defensive linemen Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall. Some observers wondered, mostly in jest, if this outburst from the OLBs in particular was due to the presence of former Buccaneers sack king Shaquil Barrett, who had just re-signed with the team the day before. Barrett, who led the NFL and set a Buccaneer record with 19.5 sacks in 2019, didn't suit up against the Panthers but could be in play in Week 18 and (hopefully) beyond, which could have a bit of an effect on the snap shares in the edge rush rotation. Can Barrett, who had 45.0 sacks in 70 games in his first stint in Tampa, provide a spark to that unit, whether through motivation and sideline knowledge or his own pursuit of quarterbacks? The Bucs are hoping he can after setting up the late-season reunion.
View the top images of Tampa Bay's Week 17 game against the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, December 29th, 2024 at Raymond James Stadium.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Saints TE Juwan Johnson vs. Buccaneers S Jordan Whitehead
New Orleans started Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed at wide receiver in Weeks One and Two when they exploded for 91 points in wins over Carolina and Dallas. Last Sunday against Las Vegas, the Raiders started Marques Valdes-Scantling, Kevin Austin and Cedrick Wilson at receiver and brought Dante Pettis off the bench; at the start of the season, Austin was on the practice squad, Valdes-Scantling was in Buffalo and Pettis had just been cut by the Bears. Given all the Saints' turnover at the receiver position, it's less surprising that their leading pass-catcher last week was tight end Juwan Johnson (6 for 66) and their second-leading pass-catcher was tight end Foster Moreau (3 for 37 and a touchdown). Whether Derek Carr returns to action or rookie Spencer Rattler remains at the helm, the Buccaneers' defense should anticipate the New Orleans quarterback leaning on the tight end position. Johnson, in fact, is the team's second-leading receiver, with 44 catches for 468 yards and three touchdowns. He is a big and long-limbed tight end with good speed and a physical running style after the catch. Safety Jordan Whitehead, who just returned from injured reserve last Sunday and played every snap in the win over Carolina, should be one of the primary Bucs defenders tasked with stopping the Saints' tight ends. Whitehead gives up six inches and 35 pounds to Johnson but that likely won't be noticeable because the Bucs' safety plays like a much bigger player and is a ferocious and willing tackler. Despite missing four games, Whitehead is second on the Bucs' defense with 79 tackles and has also broken up three passes.
- Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan vs. Saints CB Kool-Aid McKinstry
McMillan's steady progression in his rookie season has taken a sharp upward curve in the last month. McMillan has caught six touchdowns in the Buccaneers' last four games, the most by any NFL player in that span. He is now a legitimate number-two threat to pair with Mike Evans, something the Bucs have sorely needed since Chris Godwin went down with a dislocated ankle in Week Seven. McMillan has played the majority of his snaps on the outside this season but is also well-versed at working out of the slot from his time at Washington. He is a strong route-runner who is good at creating separation and can be deceptively fast with his long strides. When he lines up wide to the left of the Bucs' offensive formation, he should get plenty of all-rookie battles with cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry, the Saints' second-round pick who has taken on a much bigger role since the trade of Marshon Lattimore to Washington. McKinstry has now started eight games as he auditions for a permanent role next season, and he has contributed 39 tackles and five passes defensed. McKinstry doesn't possess elite speed but he accelerates quickly to close in on targets in zone coverage. When playing man-to-man, McKinstry shows off strong coverage skills, with the footwork and balance to mirror a receiver's route.
- Saints T Trevor Penning vs. Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby
New Orleans initially drafted Trevor Penning out of Northern Iowa in 2022 to be their left tackle, but he struggled early and only made six starts over his first two seasons. With Pro Bowl tackle Ryan Ramczyk spending the entire season on the reserve/PUP list, the Saints elected to try Penning on that side after drafting Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga and inserting him into the left tackle spot. Penning has started all 16 games this season and has improved in his new role, particularly in terms of his run blocking. According to Pro Football Focus, he has been responsible for allowing five sacks this season, while drawing 12 penalties. Penning is a big blocker to get around at 6-7 and 325 pounds and he is notorious for playing with a nasty demeanor. In Week 17, Diaby was part of a resurgent Buccaneers pass rush, which collected five sacks of Panthers quarterback Bryce Young by five different defenders. Diaby's sack gave him 3.5 on the season, but he is tied with Calijah Kancey for the most quarterback hits on the team, with 16. Despite the relatively low sack total, Diaby has taken a clear step forward in his second season after being a surprise breakout player as a rookie. His 52 quarterback pressures are exactly double what he had in 2023 and his pressure rate of 13.0% is a big step up from last year's 9.1%. Diaby has also gotten even better as a run defender after excelling in that category as a rookie, improving his run stop total from 18 to 31 and his run stop percentage from 9.7% to 13.3%.
- Buccaneers C Graham Barton vs. Saints DT Bryan Bresee
Rookie center Graham Barton has been everything the Bucs hoped for when they drafted him in the first round this past spring. He has stepped right into a starting role and has been a big part of the team's ground game success while also holding up against some of the league's best interior pass rushers. According to PFF, he has allowed just one sack this season. While his 13 penalties have been unwelcome, Barton has also handled the mental duties of playing center well after working at left tackle for the previous three seasons at Duke. The barrel-chested Barton is big and powerful at the point of attack but can also move nimbly when pulling on gap run plays or screen passes. Bryan Bresee, the Saints' first-round draft pick in 2023, has built impressively on a very promising rookie season and will line up all over the defense's interior front, meaning he'll get plenty of action against Barton. He leads the Saints' defense with 7.5 sacks after notching 4.5 as a rookie and also has 24 tackles, seven tackles for loss, 14 QB hits, three passes defensed and a forced fumble. Bresee ranked fourth among rookie defensive tackles last season with 30 quarterback pressures while recording an 8.2% pressure rate; this year he has another 26 pressures while upping that pressure rate slightly to 9.1%. Bresee is broad and athletic and can hold up against double teams while moving instinctively as a pass rusher.