The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won their fourth straight game in Week 15, blitzing the Chargers in Los Angeles with 30 unanswered points in a 40-17 decision. That allowed the Buccaneers to keep their one-game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South, as the Falcons also won in Week 15 in Las Vegas. The sprint to the finish for the division title continues but is now down to just three weeks.
Now the 8-6 Bucs embark on their final regular-season road trip in 2024, heading to Dallas to take on the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas on Sunday, December 22. This is the fourth straight meeting between the two teams that has gotten the prime time treatment. The Bucs will try to continue their "road warriors" season, as they are 5-2 away from home and their only two losses have come in overtime.
The 6-8 Cowboys would be officially eliminated from playoff contention with a loss on Sunday night, but they are not going down without a fight. Even with star quarterback Dak Prescott on injured reserve Dallas has won three of its last four games, most recently a 30-14 thumping over the Panthers in Charlotte in which fill-in quarterback Cooper Rush threw three touchdown passes and no interceptions. Running back Rico Dowdle continued his recent surge, rushing for 149 yards and his third straight 100-yard outing.
Micah Parsons, a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, recorded two sacks and eight quarterback pressures in the win over Carolina, giving him a team-leading 8.5 sacks on the season. The Cowboys recently put play-making cornerback Trevon Diggs and emerging linebacker DeMarvion Overshown on injured reserve, but they still such impact defenders as defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa, cornerback DaRon Bland and safety Malik Hooker. The Cowboys also frequently gain an edge on special teams with cannon-legged kicker Brandon Aubrey and dangerous return man KaVontae Turpin.
The Bucs will go for a fifth straight win on Sunday night in Dallas to set themselves up for two critical homes to finish the regular season. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs and Cowboys play in front of a national audience once again.
TOP STORYLINES
No Margin of Error – The Buccaneers came out of their bye week trying to get on the sort of late-season hot streaks that have typified their recent games. So far, so good, as they have won all four outings since the break. Heading into this seven-week stretch, the Buccaneers seemed to be facing their biggest challenge against the Chargers in Week 15 in Los Angeles, and it also seemed like the least (relatively speaking) essential win in that it was against an AFC team. In retrospect, however, the Bucs' 40-17 win in L.A. seems extremely essential to reaching their postseason goal. Had the Bucs lost to the Chargers, with Atlanta winning on Monday night in Las Vegas, they would have dropped back into second place in the NFC South thanks to the Falcons head-to-head sweep. Then it would have been Atlanta controlling its own destiny over the last three weeks, rather than Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers can guarantee their fourth straight division title by winning out, but even one loss over the next three weeks opens the door for the Falcons, who finish their season with home games against the two-win Giants and three-win Panthers sandwiched around a Week 17 trip to Washington. Each win by the Buccaneers just makes the next contest bigger, and now the obstacle standing immediately in the team's path to the playoffs is the Cowboys, who represent a stiff challenge with such potential game-changing players as CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. The Bucs can't afford a stumble this late in the season, as their margin for error is very slim.
Run to Daylight – For the first time in the franchise's 49-season history, the Buccaneers have exceeded 150 rushing yards in four straight games, most recently with 223 against a stout Chargers defense. Tampa Bay has moved all the way up to a tie for fourth in the NFL in rushing yards per game (144.4) and second in yards per carry (5.20), rarified air the Bucs' offense hasn't tasted in almost a decade. Offensive Coordinator Liam Coen is clearly willing to lean into the team's ground game resurgence as long as it keeps providing results, calling an average of 34 run plays per game over that four-week stretch. Rookie sensation Bucky Irving returned from a back injury that made him a non-factor in Week 14 to run for 117 yards on 15 carries in Los Angeles, complementing 81 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown from Rachaad White. Irving leads the NFL with a forced miss tackle rate of 36.8% and has 498 yards after missed tackles, third in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. It seems likely the Bucs will seek a run-heavy script on Sunday night, as Dallas has the NFL's 29th-ranked defense in terms of both rushing yards allowed per game (136.1) and yards allowed per carry (4.77).
Night Terrors – It may be nothing more than coincidence, but the Buccaneers have not put their best foot forward in night games over the past two seasons. In 2023 and 2024 combined, Tampa Bay is now 0-5 in games played in prime time, including Monday night losses to Baltimore and Kansas City and a Thursday night defeat in Atlanta this season. Of course, two of those losses came in overtime on the road, but they still count just as much as a blowout when the standings are tallied up. The good news is the Bucs have won their last two prime-time games against Dallas, in 2021 and 2022, though the Cowboys eliminated them from the 2022 playoffs on a Monday night. The other good news is noted above: The Buccaneers have been excellent on the road this season. They are 5-2 and have yet to be trailing in a road game at the end of regulation. It's too late in the season for the Buccaneers to be worrying about what type of impression they will make in front of a national audience; the stakes are much higher than that this Sunday. Tampa Bay is trying to capture a fourth straight division title, which would guarantee them a home game to start the playoffs, but they most likely will have to hit the road after that, and potentially play in prime time. Even if there is nothing particularly deep about it, the Bucs need to show that they can win under the lights.
Adjustment Bureau – During their four-game post-bye winning streak, the Buccaneers have allowed the fewest points per game in the NFL, at 15.0. That's a remarkable accomplishment given that the team has had to deal with the injury absences at various times – and occasionally all at the same time – of safeties Antoine Winfield Jr., Jordan Whitehead and Mike Edwards, linebackers K.J. Britt and J.J. Russell, nickel back Tykee Smith and outside linebacker Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. As a result, Head Coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles has dazzled with (in his words) "smoke and mirrors," concocting a wide variety of personnel packages he has shuffled in and out of the game. Versatile defenders like safety Christian Izien and outside linebacker Anthony Nelson have helped with the moving pieces, but Bowles has also gotten creative with his groupings to impressive effect. Izien and Smith have filled multiple different roles in the secondary and second-year safety Kaevon Merriweather has been pressed into every-down action. The Buccaneers have leaned more on three-down linemen formations and sometimes have had Lavonte David as the only linebacker on the field. At other times, the second off-ball linebacker spot has been manned by unconventional choices such as Nelson or practice squad safety Ryan Neal. The Buccaneers are hoping to get some reinforcements on defense soon as injured players heal, but until then the game of smoke and mirrors will continue.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Buccaneers CB Jamel Dean
CeeDee Lamb is far and away the leading man in the Cowboys' passing attack. His 94 receptions rank third in the NFL and are more than double the total for the next wide receiver on the list, Jalen Tolbert (40). Lamb's 1,089 receiving yards also rank third in the league and he has six of the team's 21 touchdown grabs. He's coming off a nine-catch, 116-yard outing against the Panthers that included his sixth scoring catch. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Lamb has generated 205 more yards after the catch than expected this season, second only to Ja'Marr Chase's 249, underscoring his threat in the open field with the ball in his hands. Lamb plays roughly half his snaps in the slot and half on the outside, so at some point he should be the task at hand for all of the Bucs' corners, including Dean on the right side of the defense. Dean secured his first pick of the season in Week 15 in Los Angeles, snapping Justin Herbert's 11-week streak of interception-free games. He and Zyon McCollum combined for a strong outing on the perimeters against the Chargers, helping limit Los Angeles to just 206 yards, the lowest total for a Bucs opponent this year. Dean has great length that he uses to his advantage plus blazing makeup speed on deep balls, and he plays the boundaries very well.
- Buccaneers T Tristan Wirfs vs. Cowboys LB Micah Parsons
Pro Bowl left tackle Tristan Wirfs and his counterpart on the right side, Luke Goedeke, have neutralized some of the NFL's best edge rushers this season. Most recently, they shut out the prolific sack trio of Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa and Tui Tuipulotu in Los Angeles. However, they may not face a steeper challenge this season than the Cowboys Micah Parsons, who has amassed 49.0 sacks in his first 60 NFL games. Parsons may not get to the 13-sack mark this season, something he did in each of his first three campaigns, but he remains as dangerous as ever. Just last week he racked up 2.0 sacks and eight quarterback pressures against Bryce Young in Carolina. Parsons missed four games due to injury at midseason, but since his return he has led the NFL with 41 QB pressures. Wirfs, who still has not been charged with a sack allowed this season, according to Pro Football Focus, is putting the bow on another incredible season as he powers through foot and knee injuries that have mostly kept him off the practice field. Head Coach Todd Bowles suggested earlier in the week that Wirfs seems to play even better when he's hurt, perhaps because he is paying extra attention to technique and details in order to keep his play at a high level. Parsons moves all over the Cowboys' defensive front, but when he does rush off Wirfs' side, it might be the single most impressive one-on-one matchup in Sunday's game.
- Cowboys G Tyler Smith vs. Buccaneers DL Logan Hall
Dallas originally drafted Tyler Smith in the first round in 2022 to play tackle, and he indeed spent his rookie season at that position as veteran Tyron Smith missed most of the season due to injury. However, with Tyron Smith back for most of the 2023 season, Tyler Smith kicked in to left guard and was a revelation at the position. When the Cowboys used another first-round pick on lineman Tyler Guyton this spring, there was some thought of putting him at guard and moving Tyler Smith back out to left tackle. (Tyron Smith had moved on to the Jets.) Eventually, and with Smith's urging, the Cowboys left him at guard and surely haven't regretted the decision. Smith has been one of the best guards in the NFL, and at midseason he had allowed the lowest pressure rate of all left guards, according to Next Gen Stats. Smith will get plenty of action against third-year defensive lineman Logan Hall, who has seen his snap count go up recently as the Bucs have used more three-lineman formations in the wake of injuries at linebacker and in the secondary. Hall had 1.5 sacks last Sunday in Los Angeles and now has a career-high 4.5 on the season. Hall has been referred to as an unsung hero by the Bucs' coaching staff for the work he does that doesn't show up in the stats record but helps the defensive front stay strong against the run and generate a pass rush. Still, he has a career high in sacks this season and ranks fourth on the team in that category.
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Cowboys LB Eric Kendricks
Bucky Irving's impressive make-you-miss numbers are detailed above: NFL-leading 36.8% missed tackle rate and 495 yards gained after forcing a missed tackle, third most in the NFL. The Bucs' surging offensive line has made some nice running lanes for him, and when he encounters a free linebacker or safety in the hole he frequently leaves them grasping at air as he gets to the next level. Irving leads all rookie backs with 852 rushing yards and is averaging a robust 5.6 yards per tote. With three weeks left to play, he has an excellent chance to be the Bucs' first 1,000-yard rusher since Doug Martin in 2015 and the first rookie 1,000-yard rusher since Martin in 2012. Kendricks, a former Pro Bowler in Minnesota who came to Dallas this season after one year with the Chargers, has always been a prolific tackler. He had 92 stops as a rookie in 2015 and has topped 100 in every season since. That includes this year, in which he leads the Dallas defense with 117 tackles, and 88 of them – by far the most on the Cowboys' defense – have come on running plays. Kendricks has historically been strong in coverage, too, forcing a high percentage of tight window targets on opposing backs and tight ends. Irving is a natural pass-catcher with stackable moves in the open field, so those two players could find themselves matched up on passing downs, as well.
