The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won their third straight game in Week 14, upending the visiting Las Vegas Raiders at Raymond James Stadium, 28-13, to improve to 7-6. In the process, the Buccaneers hurdled the Atlanta Falcons, who lost on Sunday in Minnesota, back into first place by one game in the NFC South. With four games weeks left to play, the Bucs are now fully in "playoff mode" each weekend.
The next "must-win" contest will take place on the other side of the country. After getting their first win against an AFC opponent last weekend, the Buccaneers will finish their five-game slate against that conference with a road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. Kickoff at SoFi Stadium is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 15.
The Buccaneers last three wins have come against clubs with a combined seven wins on the season, but Sunday's challenge looks to be steeper. Even after becoming the latest team to lose a nail-biter to the Chiefs in the waning seconds in Week 14, Los Angeles is 8-5, ranked sixth overall in the AFC standings and is close to wrapping up a playoff berth in Jim Harbaugh's first season as the head coach. The Chargers have a dangerous combination of a coach with a track record of winning, a star quarterback and a defense that is allowing the fewest points in the NFL.
In his fifth season, Justin Herbert is playing some of the best football of his impressive career, with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception leading to a 98.4 passer rating. With long-time Chargers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams now playing elsewhere, Herbert has found a new number-one target in rookie Ladd McConkey, a route-running savant who had to miss last week's game due to knee and shoulder injuries. Los Angeles also had to put lead running back J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve but have an able replacement in Gus Edwards. The Chargers' defense is led by the edge-rush combo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack plus a pair of rangy off-ball linebackers in Daiyan Hensley and Denzel Perryman.
The Bucs will try to stretch their winning streak to four games on Sunday in Los Angeles. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs and Chargers do battle in a game oozing with playoff implications.
TOP STORYLINES
Race to the Finish – Speaking of the playoffs, the Buccaneers now truly do control their own destiny now that they have moved a game clear of the Falcons in the NFC South standings. If the two teams finish the season in a tie, Atlanta will get the division crown because it won both head-to-head meetings with Tampa Bay in the first half of the season. Of course, the Falcons can't catch up if the Buccaneers don't lose. Winning seven straight games to close a season would be an incredible feat and a first-time occurrence for Tampa Bay, but the team can't afford to think about the big picture right now. With every game treated as if it was an elimination contest since the team came out of its Week 11 bye, the focus is strictly on this week's challenge. That doesn't mean there won't be some scoreboard watching the next evening when the Falcons play at Las Vegas during a Monday night doubleheader. The Bucs also have a shot at a Wild Card berth if they can't claim the division, so there will be interest in Rams-49ers, Commanders-Saints, Packers-Seahawks and a few other key contests over the weekend.
Providing Time to Bake – Baker Mayfield threw for 295 yards and three touchdowns in the Bucs win over Las Vegas but still criticized his own play after the game thanks to two interceptions and a lost fumble. Mayfield was also sacked four times against Las Vegas after taking the same number of sacks and throwing the same number of interceptions the week before in a win over the Panthers. Overall, Mayfield is having the best season of his career; he has already tied his career high with 28 touchdown passes, is completing a career-best 70.2% of his passes and has compiled a 101.4 passer rating. However, the recent splash of turnovers has dampened the full scoring potential of the league's fifth-highest scoring team, and that could be an issue in Week 15 against the NFL's stingiest defense. Mayfield averaged 2.91 seconds to throw against the Raiders, his longest average in any game this season. That was a bit of a departure from the formula, as the Buccaneers have succeeded in Liam Coen's offense this season largely through quick throws that produce yards-after-catch opportunities. Still, if he is looking for opportunities to press the ball downfield, as he did several times against the Raiders, the Buccaneers' front line needs to give him time to seek those out. The Chargers' pass rush ranks seventh with an 8.90% sacks-per-pass-play rate, so creating that time will be a challenge on Sunday.
Turnover Disparity – And speaking of turnovers, that category has provided a winning edge for the Chargers this season. They are tied for 10th in the league with 17 takeaways, but more impressively have only committed seven giveaways in 13 games, the lowest mark in the NFL. Opposing teams have only scored 14 points off turnovers against the Chargers all season. Over the last 10 seasons, the Buccaneers are 14-44 in games in which their opponent has scored more points off turnovers than they did. Tampa Bay's defense did manage to end its six-game interception drought when rookie safety Tykee Smith made a game-changing pick at his own seven-yard line in the third quarter against the Raiders. Still, the Bucs have secured only six interceptions this season, and the Chargers have only thrown one. Herbert is not likely to give Tampa Bay's defense many opportunities to get their hands on the football, so it is critical to take advantage of any ones that do arise. The Bucs are currently tied for 16th in the league in turnover ratio, at -2.
Road Masters – The Buccaneers' win over Las Vegas last Sunday was their first at home since September, improving their season record to 3-4. They'll have a chance to get that over .500 when they finish the regular season with home dates against Carolina and New Orleans. However, the next two games are on the road, and Tampa Bay has fared well away from home this season. Not only are the Bucs 4-2 in road games, but they have yet to be trailing at the end of regulation away from home. Their two losses on the road were overtime decisions in Atlanta and Kansas City. However, the Chargers have also been quite successful in home games this season. They are 4-2 overall, and three of their four wins have come by double-digit margins. Their only two losses at SoFi Stadium were one-score affairs against prime AFC contenders Kansas City and Baltimore. In addition, this is the longest trip the Buccaneers will take this season, and West Coast games tend to seem more challenging. The good news is that this year's success on the road isn't a new thing; a win on Sunday would mark the fifth time in the last six years that the Bucs have won at least five regular season road games.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Chargers WR Ladd McConkey vs. Buccaneers DB Tykee Smith
As noted above, the Chargers' impressive rookie receiver was held out last week due to a pair of injuries, but he did take part in all three practices leading up to the game, suggesting his absence won't be long. Assuming he suits up against the Buccaneers, Ladd McConkey will be squarely in Justin Herbert's crosshairs all afternoon. The 34th-overall pick in this year's draft, McConkey emerged in a larger role in the Chargers' defense around midseason and has been producing big numbers since. In his last six outings before he sat out last week, the former Georgia star racked up 34 catches for 550 yards and two touchdowns. He has taken 65% of his snaps out of the slot and is adept at working the middle of the field. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, has 394 yards on in-breaking routes this season, the most by any rookie in the league and seventh most among all players. McConkey will be very familiar with the man most likely covering him in the slot, as he was teammates with Bucs rookie defensive back Tykee Smith in Georgia. Smith got back in the mix in Week 14 after missing three games with a knee injury and immediately demonstrated again that he is one of the top playmakers on the Bucs' defense. His third-quarter interception (intended for tight end Brock Bowers, another Georgia star) gave him a tie for the team lead in that category and he has also paced the Bucs with three forced fumbles. Smith has a nose for the ball and is adept at diagnosing plays, especially for a rookie.
- Buccaneers T Luke Goedeke vs. Chargers OLB Khalil Mack
In his second full season as the Buccaneers' starting right tackle, Luke Goedeke has continued to solidify his spot as one of the NFL's better performers at his position. This season, Goedeke has allowed just one sack, according to Pro Football Focus, and he's part of an offensive line that has opened holes for a rushing attack that ranks fourth with an average of 5.14 yards per carry. Goedeke is very strong and takes a play-to-the-whistle mentality into every game, so whatever defenders he is matched up against are in for a heated, 60-minute battle. Khalil Mack, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year, has been an elite edge rusher for more than a decade and he is now in his third season with the Chargers. After racking up a career-high 17.0 sacks last season, Mack finished in the top 10 in the DPOTY voting for the third time in his career. He has "only" 5.0 sacks so far this year but has added 44 pressures and 13 QB hits. His pressure rate of 15.8% is his highest since 2018 and his average get-off time of 0.81 seconds is his best since 2017. Mack rushes from both ends of the line, so Goedeke will definitely see plenty of snaps against him; and when he doesn't he'll likely be starting at another blue-blood pass-rusher in Joey Bosa.
- Chargers T Rashawn Slater vs. Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby
The Chargers also have stars at both ends of their offensive line. While rookie Joe Alt has taken quickly to the right tackle spot, fourth-year player Rashawn Slater continues to operate as one of the best left tackles in the NFL. Both Slater and Alt are currently in the top three among offensive tackles in AFC voting for the Pro Bowl. Slater is a technician who moves with confidence and efficiency and he has the footwork to stay in front of even the quickest edge rushers. Slater moves laterally very well and can provide crushing blocks on the run when used as a puller or on screens. With 2.0 sacks after his 7.5-sack rookie campaign, Diaby's stat line doesn't jump off the page, but that belies a clear step forward for the second-year outside linebacker. Last year, Diaby had a 9.1% pressure rate, but he has upped that to 13.0% this year, according to NGS, which is the best for any of the Bucs' pass rushers. He has also remained very good at setting the edge against the run, recording 25 run stops already this season as compared to 18 last season. Diaby can win with power and speed moves and his 13 QB hits leads Tampa Bay's defense.
- Buccaneers RB Rachaad White vs. Chargers S Derwin James
With standout rookie Bucky Irving sidelined by a back ailment for most of last weekend's win over the Raiders, third-year man Rachaad White picked up the load, producing 109 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown each on the ground and through the air. White is no stranger to a heavy workload after leading all NFL running backs in offensive snaps last season. The Bucs invested a third-round pick in Irving so they could distribute their backfield touches more evenly, and the results have been outstanding, but if White has to take most of the snaps in Los Angeles he will be up to the challenge. He is averaging 4.2 yards per carry and has added 41 receptions for 322 yards and five of his eight overall touchdowns. White is a smooth route-runner with natural hands, and he also is very good at pass protection, buying Baker Mayfield time with reliable blitz pickups. White may encounter Derwin James, the Chargers' three-time Pro Bowl safety, in a variety of ways. According to NGS, James has played 37% of his defensive snaps in the slot, a big jump up from his 21% usage there over the previous six seasons. He also rushes off the edge and plays safety and is one of just four NFL players to have at least 50 snaps in all three of those spots this season. His pass rushes have generated 14 pressures so far, the most for any slot corner in 2024. White could find him locked up with James on a carry to the second level, when split out wide in the slot or when trying to keep the safety away from Mayfield.
