The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions meet at Ford Field on Sunday to determine which one will advance to the NFC Championship Game. The Buccaneers made it this far by turning things around in December and winning six of their last seven games. The Lions are working on a comeback of a much grander scale, as they are in the Divisional Round of the playoffs for the first time in more than three decades. Their turnaround began about midway through last season and they have now won 21 of their last 28 outings. Along the way, the Lions have taken on the gritty demeanor of their Head Coach, Dan Campbell, and Detroit fans are loving it.
The Buccaneers think the same process has taken place for them over the course of a season that defied outside expectations.
"I'm sure they feel like they have grit because they came on last year and they came on to be very tough and they've proved to be mentally tough this year," said Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowles, who had high praise for his coaching counterpart, and good friend, in Detroit this week. "We got mentally tough this year. They've probably got a year head start on us, but there are some similarities that way. We're still two different teams. It's going to come down to who makes [fewer] mistakes."
As was the case last Monday night, the Buccaneers are presented with a chance to make up for one of their rougher outings in the regular season. Detroit won a Week Six matchup in Tampa, 20-6, and the Bucs were left frustrated by being the team that made more mistakes, including a Baker Mayfield interception and some missed opportunities for big plays down the field. The Bucs were held to their lowest point total of the season and it was the only game in which Mayfield threw a pick and no touchdowns.
"It was both," said Bowles when asked if the problems that day were with scheme or execution. "It was both. We didn't coach it well and we didn't play it well. It's never one without the other. We know we've got to coach it better and put them in a better position, and they've got to make plays."
The Lions got their first playoff victory since 1991 by holding off the visiting Los Angeles Rams, 24-23. Matthew Stafford matched Jared Goff's outstanding effort, keeping the game close until the end, but the Rams had three lengthy drives in the games last 24 minutes and none of them finished in the end zone. Down by seven, Los Angeles settled for field goals on drives that reached the Lions' 13 and 11-yard lines, then couldn't connect on a third-down downfield shot to Puka Nacua on their last offensive play of the season. The Buccaneers had some similar issues in their win over the Eagles, with a rash of dropped passes and three early field goals, but held on to win. That might not be possible against the streaking Lions.
"When there are plays to be had, we have to take advantage of them," said Mayfield. "It's staying consistent – they play extremely hard. It just jumps out on film, obviously [with] the way Dan Campbell runs that team – everybody swarming to the ball, playing for each other, playing extremely hard with a lot of effort at all times. They're a tough opponent and they make it hard on you."
The Bucs have won their last three road games, including one at Green Bay against a team that is also in the NFC's final four. That all happened after Mayfield urged the team to take on a playoff mentality beginning in Week 13. They've only lost once since and they have come to enjoy the role of underdog. But each critical win has only made the team hungry for more.
"It's been great," said Mayfield. "Obviously, our backs [were] against the wall, like I mentioned after the game. Just the stretch and the run we had to go on, it makes it even more enjoyable to get to the point that we're at right now. Like I mentioned, as well, we're happy, but we're not satisfied. We have bigger goals, so we have to keep working."
TOP STORYLINES
One on One – That Goff-Stafford showdown that proved so entertaining was also a matchup of two former first-overall draft picks…who happened to be traded for each other three years ago. That 2021 trade, in which Stafford was considered the big prize, added juice to that QB pairing. A week later, we have yet another game featuring two first-overall picks, but this around Goff and Mayfield are more like kindred spirits than a pair of passers playing for pride against their former teams. Both were traded away from the team that made that initial draft investment and neither exactly landed in their new homes with high outside expectations. Goff has had three years to endear himself to a new fan base and has gotten better and better each season. In 2023, he threw for 5,575 yards, 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Mayfield came to Tampa after four seasons in Cleveland and a fractured 2022 campaign that saw him traded to Carolina, waived and then picked up the Rams. He has done just as much to ingratiate himself to his teammates and Tampa Bay fans, and he put up similar numbers to Goff with 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Whose redemption tour will continue on into the Conference Championship Game?
Another Shot at Redemption – Speaking of redemption, the Buccaneers as a team can get another dose of that on Sunday, as well. After avenging a lopsided Week Three loss to Philadelphia with their own dominant win in the Wild Card round, the Bucs now head to Detroit to take on a Lions team that, as noted above, beat them pretty handily in Week Six. Prior to the Eagles game, Buccaneers coaches and players insisted that the team they have developed into by January is far different from what it was in September and October, and then proved those words true with a much better performance. The Bucs only ran for 46 yards and 2.9 per carry against the Lions, who went on to finish second in the NFL in rush defense, but the Tampa Bay rushing attack has become more consistent and effective down the stretch. Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales, in his first year on the job, has settled into more of a play-calling groove as he has learned what his players do best and how his own sequencing of calls is most effective. On defense, the Buccaneers are close to full health and have held six of their last eight opponents to 20 or fewer points. Rookies Calijah Kancey have taken on much bigger roles than what they had in Week Six and have added teeth to a Bucs pass rush, and cornerback Zyon McCollum has helped the Bucs' produce tighter coverage on the back end by taking on a hybrid safety/corner role alongside Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean. The Lions are a formidable opponent that is unsurprisingly favored by close to a touchdown to win in Detroit on Sunday, but the Buccaneers believe they are better equipped to handle the rematch in January.
Ford Field Factor – Mayfield made some friends during his month or so with the Rams last season, and after L.A.'s narrow loss at Ford Field he had a chance to speak to a couple of them. Their collective report: It was the loudest crowd they had ever heard. Now it's the Buccaneers turn to have their eardrums abused for three hours. "It's going to be tough," said Bowles. "We can turn it up as loud as possible, music-wise [at practice] and have noise brought in and everything else, but Sunday is going to be at a whole other decibel [level]. We're preparing for it and we've got to have a few silent [count] things ready. The best way to do that is to try and make some plays and keep them quiet." The good news: The Buccaneers have proven this season that they can still operate when they can't hear each other. The Bucs won in a noisy atmosphere in Minnesota to start the season, then did so again in New Orleans three weeks later. The Rams also showed it could be done last weekend, gaining 425 yards of offense and committing just four penalties.
Getting Goff Off His Spot – Goff followed up his excellent 2023 regular season with a strong performance against the Rams, as he completed 22 of 27 passes for 277 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. The Bucs' best chance of keeping the Lions' signal-caller from repeating that kind of performance is to invade his personal space. Goff had significantly worse results this season when pressured, including a 3-8 TD-INT ratio, a completion rate of 53.8%, a passer rating of 62.9 and an EPA/dropback figure of -0.37. When not pressured, those numbers shut up to a 27-4 ratio, 73.9% passing, a rating of 115.1 and an EPA/DB figure of 0.31. This is not a particular indictment of Goff; run the numbers from any quarterback in the league and you're almost certain to see much better numbers in the absence of pressure. Still, the difference is so stark here that it seems as if it will be imperative for the Bucs' defense to get some heat on Goff. They were able to do so against the Eagles' Jalen Hurts on 20 of his 39 dropbacks in the Wild Card round, and on those 20 plays Hurts took three sacks and was eight of 17 passing for 69 yards and no touchdowns. His EPA/dropback was an unsightly -0.69. The Bucs got to Hurts by blitzing at a brakes-are-out rate of 60%. Will they do the same against Goff? Bowles is certainly never shy about bringing a myriad of exotic blitz packages, so it would be no surprise.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis
St. Brown got the Antoine Winfield Jr. treatment in 2023: He was snubbed for the Pro Bowl but a few weeks later landed the far more exclusive honor of being named first-team Associated Press All-Pro. Of course, the NFC is loaded with star-caliber receivers who had showy stat lines this season, but St. Brown was near the top with 119 catches for 1,515 yards and 10 touchdowns. He didn't score against the Buccaneers in Week Four but he did catch seven passes for 110 yards. Speaking of blitzing Goff, there is one way he's likely to look when the Bucs choose that tactic. In the win over L.A., Goff threw in St. Brown's direction nine times when blitzed and was rewarded with six catches for 69 yards, a touchdown and three first downs. St. Brown has the second-highest rate of gaining first downs against the blitz since 2022. Davis has the coverage chops to match up with the NFL's best receivers, and in this case he should be ready to defend some in-breaking routes. St. Brown gained 741 yards on that type of route during the regular season. Davis missed four games this season with various injuries but still broke up nine passes to tie for second on the team, along with two interceptions. He has racked up a lot of postseason experience over the last four years against some of the best pass-catchers in the NFL.
- Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer vs. Lions DB Brian Branch
A major part of the Eagles' game plan on Monday night was to roll extra coverage in the direction of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin whenever possible. Those two still combined for seven catches, 93 yards and a touchdown, but that would not have been enough to beat the Eagles if other pass-catchers hadn't taken advantage of the opportunities provided by that coverage strategy. One who did was rookie wideout Trey Palmer, whose 56-yard catch-and-run in the third quarter was the backbreaker for Philadelphia. Palmer showed off his blazing speed on that play, reaching a season-high max of 20.78 miles per hour as he pulled away from multiple defenders. A sixth-round draft pick, Palmer emerged as the team's primary third receiver due to the gravity that speed can have on defenses, and he finished the regular season with 39 catches for 385 yards and three scores. Since he has played a little over half of his snaps out of the slot, Palmer should see a lot of one of the Lions' best rookies, cornerback Brian Branch. A high second-round pick this past April, Branch was plugged into the slot corner role and was an immediate difference maker. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Branch allowed the league's lowest yards per target while in man coverage (4.5). The Bucs will also need to keep an eye on him blitzing, as he generated 12 pressures during the regular season.
- Lions TE Sam LaPorta vs. Buccaneers DB Zyon McCollum
Another instant star in Detroit's rookie draft class, LaPorta finished his debut campaign with 86 catches for 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. He played on an injured knee in the Wild Card round, and while he may have been somewhat limited he still scored another touchdown among his three grabs. LaPorta ran a 4.59 40-yard dash at the Combine, and while he is effective enough as a blocker his greatest strength is obviously as a pass-catcher, and the Lions frequently detach him from the O-Line to run him out of different spots. LaPorta had the second most snaps among NFL tight ends while in wide alignment in 2023 and also the second most catches (22) on such plays. The rise of a new role for McCollum, the Bucs' extremely athletic second-year corner, has given the Bucs' defense another weapon against tight ends. Bowles noted earlier this week that the creative packages the team is using to get McCollum on the field along with starting corners Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean brings into a play another big defender with good cover skills who can match up against pass-catching tight ends. McCollum is tall, long-limbed and very fast and he has made huge strides in his second season as he has become more comfortable in Tampa Bay's defense.
- Buccaneers T Luke Goedeke vs. Lions DL Aidan Hutchinson
Goedeke saved one of his best performances from his first season as the Bucs' starting tackle for the playoffs. Against the Eagles, he was frequently tasked with facing off against Pro Bowl edge rusher Haason Reddick, who had 11 sacks in the regular season. Goedeke shut Reddick down, not allowing a single quarterback pressure on the 21 pass-rush snaps that pitted those two together, 19 of which were one-on-one matchups. Goedeke is a physical blocker who isn't afraid to trash-talk his opponents or mix it up right up to the whistle. He'll have another tough challenge on Sunday against a fellow 2022 draftee, as Hutchinson most commonly rushes from his end of the line. The second-overall pick in that draft, Hutchinson had a promising rookie season with 7.5 sacks, then made the Pro Bowl this year after upping that to 11.5. He also improved his rookie total of 52 QB pressures to 83 this year, ranking fifth among all players in the NFL. Against the Rams, Hutchinson led the Lions with seven pressures, marking the 15th game this season in which he has finished with five or more. He is very strong so can win with power but also has quick lateral movement and good technique when it comes to hands and feet placement. Goedeke's job will be to keep him away from Mayfield as much as possible.
