The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won four games in a row, which has done wonders for their postseason chances, but it was actually during a run of six losses in seven weeks that Head Coach Todd Bowles became convinced his team was a playoff-caliber squad.
"I was encouraged actually during the losing streak, because we were fighting and we were making bonehead plays here and there," he said. "We knew if we cleaned those up, we could win a game by one or two touchdowns. We just kept looking at it every week and we kept with it. It's okay to correct the guys and coach them and chastise them and all that stuff, but we knew we were close to at least playing solid football if we cleaned those things up. We cleaned those things up and it's kind of working for us right now."
Tampa Bay's latest triumph over Jacksonville was not only its most convincing win of the season but also one that put them on the brink of a third straight NFC South title, thanks to the New Orleans Saints' loss to the Rams in Los Angeles a few days earlier. Prior to the Bucs' division crowns in 2021 and 2022, the Saints had taken the South four years in a row, even in the 2020 season that saw Tampa Bay take home the Lombardi Trophy. The 8-7 Buccaneers want to make sure that the torch has been thoroughly passed, and they can deliver that message directly in Week 17.
The 7-8 Saints will visit Raymond James Stadium on Sunday for a rematch of the Week Four meeting in New Orleans, which the Bucs won, 26-9. A win for the home team would keep the NFC South crown in Tampa, though a loss would also not take that prize out of the equation. Even if the Saints pull back even in Week 17, Tampa Bay would still win the division with a Week 18 victory in Carolina. The Buccaneers don't expect the Saints to go down without a tremendous fight.
"It's definitely been hard to dominate any division," said Bowles. "In our division, the Saints had been running it for quite a while. We won a couple games – we won it the last two years. We're trying to win it a third year, but it's always going to be tough sledding when you're in a division and going for a title at the end."
Prior to going down to a streaking Rams team in Week 16, the Saints had throttled the Panthers and Giants in consecutive weeks and had only lost five by five points in Detroit. Quarterback Derek Carr has been playing well recently, recording a 109.9 passer rating over the last four weeks that ranks fourth in the NFL in that span, just behind the Bucs' Baker Mayfield. His favorite target has been second-year wideout Chris Olave, who is already over 1,000 yards this season, and he frequently turns to speedster Rasheed Shahid (41 catches, 15.6 yards per reception) for big plays. Running back Alvin Kamara remains a dual threat who is over 1,000 yards from scrimmage, with six touchdowns. The Saints quietly rank 14th in the NFL scoring.
The New Orleans defense is even better in that all-important category, allowing 19.8 points per game, ninth fewest in the NFL. Carl Granderson has emerged as the team's new leading sack merchant, with a career-high 8.5 on the season, and linebacker Demario Davis is as dominant as ever with 108 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 11 QB hits and four passes defensed. The Saints' secondary will still be without injured cornerback Marshon Lattimore this weekend, but Paulson Adebo and Tyrann Mathieu have combined for seven interceptions and the Saints have allowed the seventh fewest passing yards in the NFL.
The Buccaneers haven't strung together a five-game winning streak within a single regular season since 2016. They've picked a very good time to challenge that, and if they can make it to five on Sunday they will also make it to three…as in consecutive division titles. Here are four storylines and four head-to-head matchups to keep in mind as the Buccaneers try to continue their winning ways.
TOP STORYLINES
First Goal Within Reach – Every NFL team's ultimate aspiration at the start of the season is to be the last one standing on the Super Bowl stage. There are other significant goals along the way, stepping stones to the final prize, and the Buccaneers have had their sights set on that aforementioned third straight NFC South title. Most outside analysis of the Buccaneers prior to the season pegged the team as one in transition after the retirement of Tom Brady, and those six losses in seven midseason weeks didn't change anyone's mind. However, the Buccaneers have righted the ship and are now right were they were a year ago, needing one more win to clinch the South. While Tampa Bay does have something of a safety net in the division race with another shot to clinch in Charlotte in Week 18, this Sunday's game is of dramatic importance to the visiting Saints. The New York Times playoff odds calculator currently gives the Saints a 12% chance to make it to the dance, but that drops to less than 1% if they leave Tampa without an eighth win. The Buccaneers' playoff odds currently sit at 84% but would drop to 62% with a loss on Sunday. Tampa Bay's titles the past two seasons marked the first the franchise had won its division in consecutive seasons, so getting a third in a row would obviously be another noteworthy accomplishment…and the next step toward the ultimate goal.
Which QB Will Finish Strong? – Both the Saints and Buccaneers signed veteran quarterbacks to run the show in 2023, though Derek Carr's deal with New Orleans was quite a bit more lucrative than the one-year prove-it contract Baker Mayfield got in Tampa. Mayfield has certainly proved it, posting strong numbers that include 3,598 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, eight interceptions and a 96.2 passer rating. Mayfield has been particularly hot down the stretch as the Buccaneers' offense has started to fire on all cylinders, and he has thoroughly won over the locker room with his natural leadership and his gritty approach to the game. Though it won't be a discussion until the season is over, the idea of extending Mayfield's stay in Tampa is sure to be a top 2024 storyline. Meanwhile, the Saints spent big on a multi-year deal for Carr after he was let go by the Raiders, and the 10th-year passer has produced numbers quite similar to Mayfield's stat line, other than seven fewer touchdowns: 3,417 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 93.6 passer rating. New Orleans has scored 25.5 points per game over the past four weeks; the Bucs have put up 28.5 per game over that same span and strong quarterback play has been a key ingredient for both teams. With the division title hanging in the balance over the next two weeks, it may the quarterback who finishes the best who gets his team into the playoffs.
Can the Bucs' Young Guns Come Through In Crunch Time? – The Buccaneers' sack leader in 2023 is now Yaya Diaby, a third-round draft pick who has put together an impressive rookie season. His 1.5 sacks in Week 16 give him 6.5 on the year, which is tied for first among all NFL newcomers. Diaby has also proved to be on the Buccaneers' most stout run defenders. In addition, he ranks second in the NFL among rookies in tackles for loss with nine…one behind his teammate, first-round defensive lineman Calijah Kancey. The Bucs also start a rookie, the undrafted Christian Izien, in the slot and have recently spread around some playing time to such fellow rookies as safety Kaevon Merriweather, cornerback Josh Hayes and outside linebacker Markees Watts. On offense, second-round guard Cody Mauch has steadily progressed as a rookie starter at right guard, which is one of the reasons the offensive line play has improved noticeably in the second half of the season. Rookie Trey Palmer has grabbed the third receiver role and has not only made some key catches but has helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin find open spaces by affected the defense's gravity with his speed. At this point in the year, those rookies are all well beyond the number of games they would have played in a college season. The Bucs hope their young players can maintain a high level of play to the end.
Win the Battle, Win the War – When the Buccaneers defeated the Saints in the Superdome in Week Four, they did so in large part because they won the turnover battle, 3-1. Perhaps most importantly they scored 10 points off their takeaways and allowed none off their giveaways, leading to the Buccaneers' second-largest winning margin of this season in a 26-9 decision. So far this season, Tampa Bay is 5-2 when it has a positive turnover ratio, 3-2 when it's even and 0-3 when they lose that battle. Turnovers have frequently been the deciding factor in Bucs-Saints games of recent vintage, such as the 2020 NFC Divisional Playoff Game in New Orleans that turned on a string of second-half takeaways by the Bucs. Coaches like to say that turnovers come in bunches, and the Bucs will hope that proves true after they forced a season-high four of them against Jacksonville, turning three into touchdowns. After that game, the Bucs moved into a tie for first in the NFL in turnover ratio, at +10. The Saints haven't been slouches in that department either, tying for ninth at +4.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Saints T Andrus Peat vs. Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby
Diaby seems to be making a late push to get into the Defensive Rookie of the Year running and a couple more productive games could make him a top candidate. His impact on the Bucs' Week 16 win over Jacksonville was sizeable. In addition to his 1.5 sacks, he forced and recovered a fumble by Trevor Lawrence, setting the offense up with a short field to tack on another touchdown. Diaby also made a drive-killing play in run defense when he sniffed out and blew up a Calvin Ridley end-around 12 yards deep in the backfield. The Bucs nabbed Diaby in the third round primarily because they felt he could set the edge and be a top run defender, but they have been pleasantly surprised with his arsenal of pass-rush moves and his quick get-off at the snap. When injuries hit the Saints' tackle position earlier this season, the Saints moved Peat over from left guard to left tackle, and he has since settled into that spot permanently. He has primarily played guard in his nine-year NFL career and hadn't seen any action at tackle since 2018 before the recent switch, but he has played very well on the edge. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, heading into last week Peat had allowed a 9.5% pressure rate since moving to the outside in Week Seven, the seventh lowest in the league among left tackles. Diaby is relatively new to the NFL and Peat is relatively new to left tackle but the battle between them should be a challenge for both players.
2. Buccaneers RB Rachaad White vs. Saints LB Demario Davis
White's string of four consecutive games with 100-plus yards from scrimmage ended in Week 16 with a 77-yard outing, but he did find the end zone for his eighth touchdown in the last eight games. White is developing into what Alvin Kamara has been for the Saints for seven years: a true dual-threat running back who provides important production for his offense virtually every week and is always a threat to score. White's savvy route-running, body control while making receptions and reliable hands have made him one of the NFL's better pass-catching backs, and his ground-game production has improved as he has become more decisive with his reads. White will probably find Davis in his way on both runs and catches on Sunday, as the 12th-year pro is the Saints' leading tackler and still one of the best coverage linebackers in the league. According to NGS, prior to last week's game Davis had allowed -19.5 EPA as a targeted defender in the passing game this season, the best mark by any off-ball linebacker in the league. White will also have to be on top of his pass production duties because Davis is also an excellent blitzer who has 6.5 sacks and 11 QB hits this season.
3. Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Buccaneers DB Christian Izien
Saints quarterbacks throw it to Olave a lot. The 2022 first-round draft pick has been targeted 129 times in 2023, almost double the amount of any other wide receiver on the roster. Olave has turned all of those targets into 81 catches for 1,040 yards and four touchdowns, but those numbers could realistically be quite a bit higher. Olave can get down the field quickly and Derek Carr likes to target him on deep shots. According to NGS, Olave has had 996 targeted air yards this season on incompletions. He had one of his best games last week in the Saints' loss to the Rams, catching eight of his nine targets for 105 yards. Five of those receptions came on passes that traveled 10 or more yards downfield in the air. The other challenging part for the Bucs when trying to slow down Olave is that the Saints move him all over the field. While he has played the majority of his snaps on the outside, he has also lined up in the slot 36% of the time. When that happens Sunday, the Bucs will rely on slot corner Christian Izien to keep him in check. An undrafted rookie, Izien has held his own in his first NFL season, recording 58 tackles, three tackles for loss, two interceptions and a forced fumble. Izien is a shorter corner, but he's ripped, and he has the change of direction skills a defensive back needs to operate inside and underneath. He's also proved to be a sure open-field tackler, so the Bucs will count on him to limit the YAC when Olave does make a catch.
4. Buccaneers WR Trey Palmer vs. Saints CB Alontae Taylor
On his 19-yard touchdown catch in Green Bay in Week 15, Mike Evans ran a go, beat his man to the inside and had a wide-open lane to the back of the end zone because the safety in the middle of the field had initially broken in the opposite direction. He did so because Palmer had dashed out of the slot and crossed his face extremely quickly on a crossing route. The following Sunday, in a win over Jacksonville, Palmer caught four passes for 42 yards, including a critical third-down play on which he caught the ball in the middle of the field and outran a pack of defenders to turn the corner by the sideline and pick up the first down. Palmer has nailed down the third receiver role next to Evans and Chris Godwin and helped the Bucs' offense in a number of ways, some more obvious than others. He has played 53% of his snaps out of the slot, which will give him a lot of contact on Sunday with Alontae Taylor, who has taken over the nickelback job for the Saints this season. According to NGS, Taylor has had a 60.2% success rate this season, the fifth-best mark among NFL slot corners in 2023.
