The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head into the final third of the 2023 season a game out of first place in the NFC South, but as Head Coach Todd Bowles noted after a Week 12 loss at Indianapolis, sometimes "it feels like we're 10 games out." That's the result of a stretch that has seen the Buccaneers lose six of seven games after a promising 3-1 start.
The 4-7 Buccaneers are one back of both the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans, and they have one game left against both of those teams plus two against the Panthers. It's clear that there is still much to be resolved in the division, but that's not at the front of the Buccaneers minds in Week 13. They simply want to stop the bleeding and get back in the win column.
"We're just trying to win a game," said Head Coach Todd Bowles. "We're going to try and take them one game at a time and try and win a game and see where we are at the end. We've still got all our division games ahead of us, so we feel like we have a chance."
The next chance to do so is Sunday at Raymond James Stadium in the first of those matchups with the Panthers, who will bring a 1-10 record into the game. Carolina just made a dramatic change to its coaching staff and are still working to get a rookie quarterback acclimated to the NFL, but the Bucs are focusing on their own issues.
"We don't care if the team is 12-0 – we worry about us," said Bowles. "If we can correct the things that we need to correct, we'll be fine. It doesn't matter what the other team is doing.
"I think we're making mistakes at the wrong time. Whether we get down to the 1-yard line in the first quarter, or whether we blow something on defense in the second half – it's a different guy every time. The effort is there, the work is there… You want to win a ballgame – we're desperate to win a ballgame, just one ballgame – but small things happen against different teams at different times. We can't play the Bucs plus the opposition."
The Bucs will try to make it a one-on-one game with the Panthers on Sunday as they seek that "one win" to get back on track. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. and the game will be broadcast by CBS. Here are four storylines and four key matchups that could factor into the final outcome.
TOP STORYLINES
Changes at the Top – The Panthers created the biggest headline in the entire NFL on Monday when they parted ways with Head Coach Frank Reich 11 games into his tenure. Special Teams Coordinator Chris Tabor will take over as the interim head coach for the remainder of the season. The Panthers also dismissed Quarterbacks Coach Josh McCown and Running Backs Coach Duce Staley but did retain both of its coordinators, with Thomas Brown on offense and Ejiro Evero on defense. The departure of Reich will have an immediate impact on Sunday's game in Tampa because it means Browns will regain the offensive play-calling duties. Reich had turned the play-calling over to Brown for three games before taking that responsibility back in Week 11. Though it's harder to quantify, the Panthers could also benefit from the so-called "new coach bounce," like the Raiders appeared to do under Antonio Pierce when they won their first two games after the dismissal of Head Coach Josh McDaniel. Last season, the Buccaneers went to Charlotte in Week Seven to face a Panthers team that was playing just it's second game under Interim Head Coach Steve Wilks after the departure of Matt Rhule. The 3-3 Bucs were heavily favored over that 1-5 Panthers team but Carolina cruised to a lopsided 21-3 victory and was able to win six of its last 11 games.
Keep the Engine Running – The Buccaneers couldn't complete a comeback in Indianapolis in Week 12 but did see improvement in some areas that had plagued them, such as holding the Colts' offense to two conversions in 11 third down tries. Perhaps the most encouraging development of a run game that created a handful of explosive plays and finished with 125 yards on 19 carries. That 6.6-yard per-carry average was the best Tampa Bay's running game had produced in a single contest since 2015. Second-year running back Rachaad White, who had been doing a good portion of his damage in the passing game in recent weeks, caught only two passes for 10 yards against Colts but ran 15 times for exactly 100 yards. White had three of the Bucs' runs of 11 or more yards – the most the offense has produced in a game this season – including a career-long 38-yarder in crunch time in the fourth quarter. The Bucs still rank just 31st in rushing yards per game, but their average of 24.3 rushing plays per game this season indicate that they are sticking to their effort to field a balanced offense. If the rushing attack is not just occasionally effective but actually capable of delivering explosive plays, that approach will be even more effective. Can the Bucs prove the Indy game wasn't the exception and continue getting good movement out of the run game down the stretch? The Panthers' defense is ranked 24th in the NFL against the run, giving up 124.9 yards per game.
Give and Take – What has been slowly moving in the wrong direction for the Buccaneers in recent weeks is their turnover ratio. Tampa Bay owned the top spot in the NFL on that list through Week Eight, with a +8 ratio, but they gained only three more takeaways since then while giving it away six times. The Bucs are still tied for seventh in that category at +5, but they have not been creating as many scoring opportunities as they had been earlier in the season, with just one touchdown and one field goal scored off takeaways in the last four games. Meanwhile, the defense allowed a touchdown off a Bucs giveaway for the first time all season last weekend against the Colts, and that proved to be the game's winning margin. This week, the Buccaneers will face a rookie quarterback in first-overall draft pick Bryce Young, and most defenses focus on pressuring inexperienced passers into critical mistakes. Young has been responsible for 12 turnovers through 11 games so far, with eight interceptions and four lost fumbles. Overall, the Panthers' interception rate of 1.96% isn't too bad, ranking 12th best in the league, but they are tied for 27th with a turnover ratio of -7 because their defense has only generated seven takeaways. The Panthers have scored 23 points off those seven takeaways while allowing 75 off their 14 giveaways. If the Buccaneers can continue that trend they will greatly increase their chances of getting a victory in Week 13.
Gain Some Footing – Tampa Bay players and coaches aren't focusing on the playoff standings right now, but that doesn't mean we as fans have to ignore them. While the Bucs take on the Panthers this weekend, the Saints get a tough home date with the 8-3 Detroit Lions while the Falcons travel to the Meadowlands to take on the Jets. Of those 5-6 teams, Atlanta has the edge because it is 3-0 in intra-division games, with one win against each of the other three teams. The Saints are 1-2, having lost to both the Falcons and the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is 1-1 with two games left against the fourth-place Panthers. The Buccaneers could win this weekend and still be in third place depending upon what happens in New Orleans and New Jersey, but they would at least feel like they were getting back in the race, and they would have a superior division record to the Saints. The Bucs follow up this weekend's game with a trip to Atlanta, and then will get the Saints at home in Week 17 and the Panthers on the road in Week 18. Their goal of winning a third straight NFC South title remains attainable if they can get back on their feet after a rough stretch.
KEY MATCHUPS
1. Panthers WR Adam Thielen vs. Buccaneers CB Christian Izien
Thielen, the long-time Viking in his first season with Carolina, is the Panthers' leading pass-catcher by a very wide margin. Thielen has been a high-volume receiver for his new team, hauling in 77 passes and scoring four touchdowns, though his per-catch average is a career-low 9.5 yards. No other player on the roster has more than 28 receptions. The Panthers have been using Thielen primarily out of the slot – through the first 10 games of the season he had run 70.5% of his routes out of the slot, the highest average of his career – and all four of his touchdowns have come from that starting point. That means he'll see a lot of rookie Christian Izien, the Buccaneers nickel corner, who is tied for the team lead with two interceptions. The 6-2 Thielen will have a height advantage on the 5-10 Izien, but the Bucs' rookie has shown the change of direction skills necessary to survive in the slot and has also proved to be a sure open-field tackler. Izien should expect a busy day, as Carolina passers (mostly Bryce Young but Andy Dalton started one game) have already targeted Thielen an even 100 times through 11 games.
2. Buccaneers T Luke Goedeke vs. Panthers OLB Brian Burns
Luke Goedeke will also draw one of the Buccaneers' most important tasks on Sunday as he will spend much of the day trying to prevent Burns, who rushes from both sides but somewhat more often over the right end of the offensive line, from getting into Baker Mayfield's personal space. Burns leads the Panthers in sacks (6.0) and quarterback pressures (30) and he's exhibited a blazingly-fast get-off rate at the snap of 0.81 seconds on average. This is not a new development for Burns, a 2019 first-round pick who had at least 7.5 sacks in each of his first four seasons, peaking at 12.5 last year when he made his second Pro Bowl. Goedeke has answered one of the Bucs' most pressing questions from before the season by playing well at the right tackle spot that Pro Bowler Tristan Wirfs had vacated to move to left tackle. The Bucs originally drafted Goedeke to play guard in 2022 but chose to move him back to his natural college position this year to pleasing results. Though the Bucs' pass protection has slipped a bit in recent weeks and Goedeke has faced some very challenging opponent, through the first seven games of the season he had allowed the ninth-lowest pressure rate among right tackles in the NFL. Goedeke's 6-5, 312-pound frame makes him tough to go through on power rushes and he's shown the nimble feet needed to reroute speed rushers on most Sundays this season.
3. Panthers G Chandler Zavala vs. Buccaneers NT Vita Vea
On the other side of the ball, the Buccaneers will hope to find a matchup to their advantage in Pro Bowl nose tackle Vita Vea against the Panthers' starting left guard, Chandler Zavala, a rookie drafted in the fourth round this past spring. Vea will likely see a lot of action against veteran center Bradley Bozeman, but he does move around the line and attack from different angles so he should come into contact with Zavala plenty of times as well. In addition, opposing teams often try to double-team the powerful and mountainous Vea with a center and a guard, so Zavala could factor into the efforts to stop him that way, too. Vea leads the Buccaneers with 5.5 sacks and nine quarterback hits, while also serving as a key figure in the team's run defense because of how hard he is to move in the trenches. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Zavala had allowed a 14.7 QB pressure rate through the Panthers' first nine games of the season, third highest among interior offensive linemen. The Buccaneers obviously want to get pressure on the Panthers' talented rookie quarterback, but given that he stands 5-10 it would probably be particularly effective to have those rushers come up the middle and shut down throwing lanes.
4. Buccaneers RB Rachaad White vs. Panthers LB Frankie Luvu
Frankie Luvu, who originally entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent and didn't get a qualifying offer after his third season with the Jets, has stunningly emerged as the next in a long line of standout Panthers linebackers. That has been a particularly welcome development for the Panthers after Shaq Thompson saw his season end after just two games due to a broken leg. Luvu actually emerged as a top performer last season when he got his first extended opportunity to start and produced 111 tackles, 19 tackles for loss, 7.0 sacks, one interception, four passes defensed and one fumble recovery. He hasn't slowed down in 2023, leading the team with 83 tackles and making plays as a pass-rusher (3.5 sacks) and in coverage (four passes defensed). Luvu's pass-rush win rate of 22.6% is ninth among all NFL players who have had at least 50 pass-rush snaps, so Rachaad White will have to be on point with his blocking skills when he stays in for pass protection. Of course, White is one of the NFL's leading pass-catching running backs, with 43 catches for 364 yards, so he'll flip the challenge to Luvu when he leaves the backfield. White seems to be getting into more of a groove as a runner, too, and he's coming off his first 100-yard game of the season in Week 12 at Indianapolis.
