The Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost a fourth quarter lead and, eventually, sole possession of first place in the NFC South in a 36-30 overtime defeat in Atlanta last Thursday night. The Buccaneers and Falcons are now both 3-2 and one game ahead of the 2-3 New Orleans Saints, who also lost in prime time in Week Five. The Saints fought to the end against the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Monday night, pulling to within a field goal in the fourth quarter, but eventually left Missouri with a 26-13 loss.
The NFC South will be a closed circle in Week Six, with the Buccaneers traveling to New Orleans for a second straight intradivision game and the Falcons doing the same in Charlotte against the 1-4 Carolina Panthers. That means there are multiple iterations of how the division standings could look after Sunday, one of which could be the Buccaneers back in the lead by a game.
The Saints came out of the gate hot in 2024, winning their first two games by a combined score of 91-29 over the Panthers and Cowboys. Their fortunes have turned since, as they are now on a three-game losing streak in which they have scored a total of 49 points. Still, veteran quarterback Derek Carr is off to a strong start in his second year at the Saints' helm, completing 70.3% of his passes, throwing for eight scores and compiling a passer rating of 100.7. That's not far from what he did last year after coming over from the Raiders, as he finished the season with a 25-8 TD-INT ratio and a 97.7 passer rating while leading the Saints to a 9-8 record. However, Carr suffered an oblique injury late in Monday's game and is reportedly set to miss multiple games.
Running back Alvin Kamara also looks like his old self, with more than 600 yards from scrimmage through five games, and wide receiver Rashid Shaheed continues to emerge as one of the NFL's most dangerous big-play threats. More on both of them below. However, the Saints' offense has had to work through multiple offensive line injuries, with both guard Cesar Ruiz and center Shane Lemieux missing Sunday's game. Carr was only sacked once against the Chiefs but he also only threw for 165 yards and the Saints' offense finished with a season-low 220 net yards.
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs' offense seems to be finding a groove, especially with the ground game emerging in recent weeks. Rachaad White and Bucky Irving led an attack that picked up a season-best 160 rushing yards in Atlanta last Thursday. However, the defense gave up a whopping 550 yards to Kirk Cousins and the Falcons and the middle of the field seemed particularly vulnerable throughout the night.
The Saints and Buccaneers won't meet again until the final week of the regular season in Tampa. However, their Week Six clash could end up being a critical one in regard to the final division standings. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs play their second road game against an NFC South foe in a row.
View the top images of Tampa Bay's Week 5 game against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, October 3rd, 2024 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
TOP STORYLINES
Uprooted by Milton – Hurricane Milton, which was expected to make landfill on Florida's Gulf Coast on Wednesday evening, will likely impact the lives of millions of people across the state in varying degrees. In the total scheme of things, the travel schedule and preparations of a football team is a matter of far less significance. Still, the Buccaneers are in the midst of an unusual week as they try to get ready for Sunday's game and keep their players, staff and families safe. The first move was to depart for New Orleans early, as the team flew out on Tuesday morning. The Buccaneers will conduct their practices at Tulane University on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday and otherwise hold meetings and other functions at the team hotel. It's not an entirely unfamiliar way for the Bucs to prepare for a game, as it constitutes a schedule and travel similar to the joint practices before a road game the team has frequently conducted in the preseason. The Bucs did so less than two months ago in Jacksonville but, of course, had a lot more time to plan that trip. The team won't use the week's upheaval as an excuse on Sunday, particularly with what will surely be more pressing concerns for the state of Florida, but the clash with the Saints in the Superdome will be the conclusion of a very unusual week.
Recovery Time – Like many teams around the league, the Buccaneers have been dealing with the absences of multiple core players due to injuries through the first five weeks of the season. The quick turnaround between their Week Four win over Philadelphia and Thursday's trip to Atlanta was not conducive to the return of injured players, but the flip side of that was the "mini-bye" the team enjoyed over the following weekend. With 10 days between outings, could the Bucs see reinforcements in Week Six in the likes of tackle Luke Goedeke, safety Antoine Winfield Jr., defensive lineman Calijah Kancey and wide receivers Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer. Kancey has yet to play in 2024 after he suffered a calf injury in the last practice before the season opener, but Head Coach Todd Bowles suggested last week that the second-year pass-rusher might have been available in Week Five had the game been on Sunday. Goedeke and Winfield haven't played since Week One but Goedeke has now had extra time to progress through the NFL's concussion protocol and Winfield did get in a limited practice last Wednesday. Palmer is also in the concussion protocol and has missed one game, while McMillan is recovering from a practice field hamstring strain. The Bucs have a rest advantage over New Orleans this week, as the Saints are working on a short week following their Monday night game in Kansas City. That gives the New Orleans coaching staff a little less time to prepare either Jake Haener, a 2023 fourth-round pick, or Spencer Rattler, a fifth-round pick this spring to take over for Carr. And, as noted above, the Saints are waiting on the return of starting offensive lineman Cesar Ruiz, with Shane Lemieux and Erik McCoy already on injured reserve.
Second Half Staying Power – After the Bucs' racked up 445 yards in a dominant Week One win over Philadelphia, Baker Mayfield was asked about the team's offensive identity. Mayfield's response: Start fast and play with an edge. The Buccaneers have definitely started fast on offense the past two weeks. After enduring a stretch of 20 straight regular season games in which they did not score a touchdown on their opening drive, the Bucs have now done so two weeks in a row. They actually scored three touchdowns and a field goal on their first five possessions against the Eagles and then opened their Thursday game in Atlanta with four drives that ended in three touchdowns and a field goal. However, Philadelphia briefly got back into the game in the third quarter before the Bucs pulled away, while the Falcons were able to rally for an overtime win as Tampa Bay scored just six points after halftime. When Mayfield mentioned fast starts, he actually meant that the goal was to create one to begin each of the game's two halves, but the Bucs have not been able to sustain their early success later in the game in recent weeks. Tampa Bay's success rate on pass dropbacks in the first halves of games this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, is a league-best 57.4%; in the second halves of games that drops to 48.1%, and eight of Mayfield's 11 touchdown passes have come before halftime. The Buccaneers are definitely finding plenty of offensive success under new coordinator Liam Coen, but they would like to play a full 60-minute game without running into lulls on that side of the ball.
Keeping Kamara Contained – The Buccaneers, of course, are very familiar with Kamara, the Saints' eighth-year running back. In 13 games against his division rivals from Florida, Kamara has racked up 1,127 yards from scrimmage and 10 total touchdowns. Tampa Bay's defense handled the do-it-all running back fairly well last season, allowing him a total of 111 yards from scrimmage and no touchdowns across two games, but Kamara is off to a more productive start in 2024. His 77.6 rushing yards per game, in fact, would be a new career high if maintained, and his 42.8 receiving yards per game are his best since 2020. Kamara has also found the end zone six times in five games, already matching his touchdown total from last year. He not only leads the team in rushing with 388 yards and a 4.3-yard average, but he also has a team-high 23 receptions, so Tampa Bay's defense needs to be prepared to stop him on any given down. Notably, Kamara scored five times in the Saints' two wins to start the season but has returned to the end zone just once in the team's lats three outings. The Buccaneers' run defense is currently ranked 16th in the league with 119.8 yards allowed per game, but was notably stronger last Thursday with the return from injury of Vita Vea. With the possible return of Kancey this week, the Bucs may be even more prepared to limit the Saints' ground game. That would be particularly important if Carr is unable to play and the Saints have to turn to 2023 fourth-round pick Jake Haener for his first career NFL start.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed vs. Buccaneers CB Zyon McCollum
As noted above, Kamara leads the Saints in receptions with 23, and wideout Chris Olave is second on the team with 22 catches. However, it's third-year receiver Rashid Shaheed, an undrafted free agent out of Weber State in 2022, who is pacing the New Orleans in receiving yards, with 338. That's because when Shaheed gets the ball in his hands, he's usually quite far downfield. He is averaging 17.8 yads per reception this season, good for fifth in the league, and 16.6 in his young career. His 43-yard touchdown catch on Monday night against the Chiefs came on a pass that traveled 50.6 yards in the air. Since he entered the league in 2022, Shaheed has nine receptions on passes that were in the air for 50-plus yards, the most for any player in the league in that span. Of course, the Buccaneers have a lot of speed at the cornerback position to help counter such deep shots. McCollum continues to impress in his first season as a full-time starter, already recording eight passes defensed through five games, which is just one off the NFL lead. He has been targeted as the nearest defender 29 times and has allowed 13 receptions and an opposing 81.1 passer rating. Shaheed lines up on the outside on more than 70% of his snaps, so it's largely going to be up to outside corners McCollum and Jamel Dean to keep him in check.
- Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield vs. Saints S Tyrann Mathieu
After his impressive renaissance season in 2023 as Tampa Bay's new starter, Mayfield is off to an even better start in his second year at the Bucs' helm. His 112.2 passer rating ranks second in the league among all quarterbacks with at least two starts, and it's his career best after the first five games of a season. In fact, Mayfield's current passer rating is the best any Buccaneers quarterback has ever boasted through the first five games of a season while starting all five games. He's never afraid to rip passes into tight windows, but he is also routinely taking what the defense is giving in Coen's varied scheme. Mayfield's average time to throw after the snap this season is just 2.45 seconds, which is the quickest among all quarterbacks this year with at least 75 attempts. Mayfield has also made a handful of big plays with his legs, rushing for 107 yards and two touchdowns and frequently keeping drives with third-down scrambles that get to the sticks. All of that will be processed throughout the game by Mathieu, one of the NFL's savviest and most experienced safeties. The Saints re-signed Mathieu this past offseason after he finished the 2023 season with the second-fewest target EPA (-37.0) among all NFL defenders. Throughout his career, Mathieu has been the kind of versatile chess piece that coaches like to move all over the defensive formation, so whether he's throwing short or deep or taking off on a scramble, Mayfield is going to need to be aware of where Mathieu is. Through five games, Mathieu has compiled 22 tackles, two interceptions, three passes defensed a forced fumble and a fumble recovery.
- Saints G Landon Young (or Cesar Ruiz) vs. Buccaneers DL Logan Hall
Hall, now in his third season after being drafted 33rd overall in 2022, is currently enjoying the best stretch of his young career. Over his last two games, Hall has matched his previous career total of 3.0 sacks while consistently getting around the quarterback. He also has six QB hits and a pass defensed in the past two outings. Hall has taken on a higher percentage of snaps while Kancey has been sidelined, but the potential return of the second-year player on Sunday could actually help Hall even more. Kancey's quick first step tends to draw blockers in his direction, sometimes opening up bigger lanes for the likes of Hall and Vita Vea, who rely more on power in their rushes. Ruiz, one of the Saints' better offensive linemen, has missed the last two games due to a knee injury, with Young filling in at right guard. Young is a 2022 sixth-round draft pick who is listed as a tackle on the Saints' roster. At 6-7 and 321, he's a massive blocker and he has plus strength to move defenders in the trenches. He also has good hands and a quick punch at the snap and he stays engaged through the whistle. Carr has only been sacked five times through the first five weeks but if the Bucs can get pressure on him up the middle they may be able to slow down his hot start to the season.
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Saints LB Demario Davis
The Bucs truly have a two-headed monster in the backfield, with Irving gaining 293 yards from scrimmage so far and Rachaad White getting 314, and whichever one poses the greater threat to opposing defenses could change from week to week. Against the Falcons on Thursday night, for instance, White ripped off a 56-yard run while leading the team with 72 rushing yards. We'll go with Irving this week as he faces the Saints for the first time. The smaller but powerfully-built back has outstanding natural vision and usually makes the first man miss in open space. He is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season and has the only touchdown by a Bucs running back so far. Irving's also a natural pass catcher and while he has just eight receptions so far that's a part of his game that is likely to develop as the season goes on. Irving will have to contend with Davis, who remains one of the NFL's best all-around running backs. Davis is equally good in run support and coverage and he's an effective blitzer as well, so Irving may have to contend with him in pass protection from time to time. Davis has 29 tackles, a sack and a pass defensed so far this season and he was a Pro Bowl selection and a second-team Associated Press All-Pro last year after combining 121 tackles with 6.5 sacks and 11 quarterback hits.