After one week of being relegated to last-man-out status, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers reclaimed the top spot in the NFC South in Week 17 and put themselves in position to claim a fourth straight division title without any outside help.
The Buccaneers leaped back over the Falcons on Sunday, first taking a must-win game against Carolina handily in the afternoon, then watching in the evening as the Washington Commanders pulled out a dramatic overtime win over the Falcons. That restored Tampa Bay's one-game lead in the division standings, something they must maintain thanks to Atlanta's head-to-head sweep in the season series.
Meanwhile, the rest of the conference was busy locking down six of the seven conference playoff spots, leaving the Bucs-Falcons final round as the only remaining intrigue in terms of postseason invitations. Los Angeles claimed the NFC West and Philadelphia locked down the NFC East, but the NFC North also remains up for grabs heading into a Week 18 showdown between the 14-2 Lions and the 14-2 Vikings.
There is also some seeding among the seven teams to be determined, which may involve the Buccaneers. Looking ahead to Week 18, here's how the NFC playoff field looks after 17 weeks:
- Detroit (14-2), NFC North Leader
The Lions didn't actually need their Monday night win over San Francisco, except to avoid the very rare possibility of a tie against the Vikings this coming weekend handing the division title to Minnesota. But they still took care of San Francisco to give the NFL viewing public the incredible spectacle of two 14-2 teams duking it out on the final weekend for the first-overall seed, the lone NFC round-one bye and homefield advantage throughout the conference proceedings. Had Detroit lost to San Francisco, they would have still captured the North with a head-to-head win at home over the Vikings on Sunday night by virtue of a two-game sweep of Minnesota. The Lions prevailed in a Week Seven thriller in Minneapolis, 31-29, on a last-minute field goal. If Detroit loses to the Vikings on Sunday, they will drop to the fifth seed and be on the road against the fourth seed in the Wild Card round.
- Philadelphia (13-3), NFC East Winner
The Eagles still had a shot at the top seed in the NFC entering Week 17 but it had been reduced to very long odds after their Week 16 loss to Washington. They took care of their last bit of business on Sunday with an easy win against Dallas even without the services of quarterback Jalen Hurts due to a concussion. Philadelphia is locked into the second-overall seed in the NFC, which means they can afford to give Hurts more time to recover if they choose to do so. Their final game is at home against the New York Giants, a team they beat 28-3 in Week Seven. They will play the last of the three Wild Card teams, which at the moment is Green Bay but could also end up being Washington.
- Los Angeles Rams (9-7), NFC West Winner
The Rams clinched their division on Sunday in an unusual and rather rare manner. They moved closer to that accomplishment with a 13-9 win over Arizona on Saturday but did not have it locked up before Sunday. Rather, a series of wins by Cincinnati, Buffalo, Minnesota and, finally, Washington put their strength of victory (SOV) tiebreaker out of reach for Seattle. That means that even if Seattle beats the Rams in Week 18 to forge a tie at the top of the West with identical 10-7 records, they can't win the division. In such a scenario, the two teams would be tied through the following more common tiebreakers that come first: head-to-head (1-1), record in division games (4-2), record in common games (7-5) and record in conference games (6-6). Seattle, therefore, has nothing left to play for next weekend, but the Rams do. They will lock up the third-overall seed in the NFC with a win but would slip to the fourth seed if they lose and the Buccaneers win.
- Tampa Bay (9-7), NFC South Leader
The Buccaneers had two paths to the playoffs heading into Week 17, and one of them was eliminated by the results…and they couldn't be happier. Had Atlanta beaten Washington – which for a moment looked like it was about to happen when the ball came off Riley Patterson's foot on a 56-yard field goal try at the end of regulation, only for the ball to land short in the end zone – the Falcons would have maintained control of their own fate in the NFC South. Atlanta would have only needed to beat Carolina at home this Sunday to wrap up the division. In that scenario, however, the Buccaneers would also have had a shot to win the final Wild Card spot if they beat New Orleans in Week 18 and the Commanders lost at Dallas. Now the division title is the Bucs' only way into the dance, which was the preferred scenario all along. As noted above, Tampa Bay could still move up a spot in the overall conference seeding if it wins and the Rams lose to the Seahawks. The Bucs and Rams would both be 10-7 at that point, and without a head-to-head game between them, the first tiebreaker is record against conference opponents. The Buccaneers would finish 8-4 while the Rams would be 6-6.
- Minnesota (14-2), Wild Card #1
A 14-win team going on the road to start the playoffs would be remarkable, but that is going to happen this year for either the Vikings or Lions. If Detroit prevails, Minnesota would be on the road despite only losing one game (at the Rams in Week Eight) against any team other than the Lions. Neither team can be any worse than the five seed, which means they will play at the home of the four seed, which will be either the Rams or the Buccaneers. Obviously, the Vikings, who have won nine in a row, would greatly prefer to be relaxing at home in the Wild Card round.
- Washington (11-5), Wild Card #2
Washington's thrilling – and, in Tampa, very much appreciated – Sunday night win over Atlanta clinched a Wild Card spot for the Commanders but also improved their overall standing in the NFC. With Green Bay falling in Minnesota, Washington jumped over the Packers into the second Wild Card spot and the sixth-overall seed. They own the tiebreaker edge over Green Bay based on a better record in games against conference opponents (currently 8-3 to 6-5), so the only way they would drop back into the seventh seed is if they lose in Dallas and the Packers win at home against the Bears.
- Green Bay (11-5), Wild Card #3
The Packers had already clinched a playoff spot before going to Minnesota this past weekend, but they still had playoff seeding in mind. Despite a furious comeback in the fourth quarter, they dropped a 27-25 decision to the Vikings that
There are six games in Week 18 that will determine the final NFC playoff field, with a possible 64 combinations of outcomes. In 48 of them, the Commanders will hold onto the sixth spot and the Packers will head to Philadelphia in Round One. Still, if they beat the Bears at home and get some help from Dallas, they could still move back into the third spot and start on the road in either Los Angeles or Tampa Bay.
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On the outside…
- Atlanta (8-8)
The Falcons nearly pulled off the upset in Landover, Maryland on Sunday night but fell in overtime on Jayden Daniels' touchdown pass to Zach Ertz. Atlanta has started rookie quarterback Michael Penix over Kirk Cousins in the past two games and results have been encouraging for Falcons fans. Atlanta trounced the Giants, 34-7, in Penix's debut start, then went toe to toe with another rookie quarterback in Week 17 and got into overtime on a fourth-down touchdown catch by Kyle Pitts. Atlanta will be heavily favored over the visiting Panthers on Sunday and will be hoping for some intra-division spoiler action from the Saints in Tampa. Both games will be played at the same time, so the Buccaneers can't rest their starters with foreknowledge of the Falcons-Panthers outcome.
Eliminated from NFC playoff race: Seattle (9-7), Dallas (7-9), Arizona (7-9), San Francisco (6-10), New Orleans (5-11), Chicago (4-12), Carolina (4-12), N.Y. Giants (3-13)
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The regular season will come to a close on Sunday, January 5 at Raymond James Stadium with a visit from the New Orleans Saints, who have lost four of their last five and haven't reached 20 points in any of those contests. Rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler has started the last three games while Derek Carr has dealt with a hand injury. The Buccaneers won in New Orleans, 51-27, but the Saints had a 27-24 lead at halftime before a second-half barrage by Tampa Bay's offense led to 27 unanswered points. It is the second straight year that the Buccaneers have gone into Week 18 needing a win to secure the division title and facing likely elimination if they lose.
