The Tampa Bay Buccaneers took an important step forward in their quest for a fourth straight NFC South title in Week 14, moving back into sole possession of first place in the division for the first time since Week Four. The Buccaneers have three straight since their Week 11 bye, as late-season surges have become commonplace for the franchise since 2020. Since that season, the Buccaneers are 19-5 in regular season games played in December and January, ranking second in the NFL to the Buffalo Bills in that span in both total victories and winning percentage.
The Bucs had started the weekend in a tie for first place with the Falcons but knew they needed to get at least one game clear of their division foe because Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with a sweep of two meetings earlier in the season. They did so with a little help from the Minnesota Vikings, who did not treat their former starting quarterback – or more to the point, Atlanta's defense – very well in a 42-21 thrashing.
Elsewhere, Seattle got some clearance in a tight NFC West race with a massive head-to-head win over Seattle. Detroit and Philadelphia also got big wins to remain well ahead of the rest of the pack in the battle for the top seed and the only first-round bye. Washington held on to the seventh spot in the conference standings despite getting the week off, and the L.A. Rams won a thriller against Buffalo on Sunday night to move to the top of the teams just outside the current NFC playoff picture.
Looking ahead to Week 15, here's how the NFC playoff race stands after 14 weeks:
- Detroit (12-1), NFC North Leader
The Lions got Week 14 started off on a high note on Thursday night with a hugely entertaining win over Green Bay that featured four lead changes in the second half and a walk off field goal by Jake Bates in the 34-31 decision. Detroit has the best record in the conference but still has a lot of work to do just to fend off the Packers and Vikings for the NFC North title. The Lions now have a sweep over the Packers and are three games up on Green Bay in the standings, but a Week 18 showdown with 11-2 Minnesota looms large. As for the top seed in the conference, the Lions are one better than the Eagles in games played within the conference (8-1 to 7-2) but that tiebreaker could be easily erased if Philadelphia does catch them by the end of the season. The one non-NFC game remaining on the team's schedule is a doozy, as the Bills visit Ford Field this Sunday.
- Philadelphia (11-2), NFC East Leader
The Panthers didn't make it easy on the Eagles in Philadelphia on Sunday, taking a 16-14 lead into the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for Carolina, after the Eagles took a 22-16 lead, rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette dropped what could have been the go-ahead touchdown with 44 seconds left in the game and the Eagles held on for the win. It was their ninth victory in a row; like the Lions, Philadelphia hasn't lost since being defeated by the Buccaneers in September. Also like the Lions, the Eagles have already clinched a playoff spot, and with a three-game lead over Washington in the NFC South and a shot at sweeping the Commanders, the division crown is close to being sewn up. Philadelphia's marks in the strength of victory (SOV) and strength of schedule (SOS) categories is significantly worse than Detroit's, but those tiebreakers would only come into play if the two teams are tied in both conference record and record against common opponents.
- Seattle (8-5), NFC West Leader
The Seahawks arguably had a better weekend than the Buccaneers. Not only did their fourth straight win keep them in first place in the NFC West, but their victory came against a team in their own division. Seattle beat Arizona to finish off the season head-to-head sweep, all within the last three weeks. Seattle is now functionally three games up on the Cardinals with four to go. Of course, complicating matters is that both the Rams and 49ers are both very much still alive in the division race; more on those two below. Seattle is four games behind Detroit and lost to the Lions in Week four, so it has no remaining shot at the first-overall seed. In addition, of the seven teams currently on the inside in the NFC playoff hunt, Seattle is tied with Green Bay with the worst record against conference opponents (4-4). The remaining schedule isn't easy, either, with games left against Green Bay, Minnesota and the Rams.
- Tampa Bay (7-6), NFC South Leader
The Buccaneers made the biggest jump of any team in the NFC standings in Week 14, as their move into first place in the division boosted them from eighth place into fourth. Holding off Atlanta over the next month is the top priority, of course, but they are also now close enough to Seattle to merit thoughts of moving up to the third-overall seed if they can in fact clinch the South. Seattle has a one-game lead over the Buccaneers and the two won't play head-to-head, but the Bucs have significant leads in both conference record (6-3 to 4-4), and strength of victory (.473 to .423). However, the Bucs' SOS and SOV numbers have taken quite a hit over the last three weeks; while it is undeniably good that all of those games ended in victories, they were against teams that have now combined for seven wins this season. As such, if the Buccaneers ended up in a Wild Card battle they would currently rank behind the Rams in those categories and would be in a close battle with the Cardinals. None of that will be relevant if the Buccaneers can simply win as many times as Atlanta does over the next four weeks.
- Minnesota (11-2), Wild Card #1
The Vikings did the Buccaneers a huge favor in Week 14 with their downing of the Falcons, but they also ran their own win streak to six games and kept the pressure on the Lions. Minnesota can clinch a playoff spot in Week 15 with a win and losses by the Seahawks and Rams. Even if they don't get that combination, their current playoff odds sit above 99%, so they are almost certain to be playing into mid-January. Of course, Minnesota still has its eyes on the top prize and is still just one back of Detroit with four to go, ending in a head-to-head matchup in Minneapolis in Week 18. It's a tough remaining schedule for the Vikings, though, as they also have to play in Seattle and take on the Packers at home in Weeks 16 and 17.
- Green Bay (9-4), Wild Card #2
It's hard to knock the Packers too much for losing to the Lions in Detroit on a last-second field goal on Thursday night, but as noted above, that result effectively knocked them out of the division race but they are still in great shape in the Wild Card hunt, with a two-game lead over the Rams in eighth place. Green Bay also has a head-to-head victory over the Rams this season. The only troubling note for the Packers is their 4-4 record against NFC opponents, but they'll have plenty of opportunities to rectify that over the next four weeks. After a trip to Seattle this weekend, the Packers have a home game against the 5-8 Saints. They will then have a chance to both play spoiler in the NFC North race and affect Wild Card seeding with a trip to Minnesota, followed by a home game against the rival Bears. Green Bay does have a scenario in which it would clinch a playoff spot this weekend, but it involves a 49ers-Rams tie so we can ignore that for now.
- Washington (8-5), Wild Card #3
The Commanders were idle in Week 14 but they did see the Rams and 49ers creep a bit closer in the race for the seventh conference playoff spot. The Cardinals are less of a worry given Washington's victory over them in Week Four, and the Commanders also have a better conference record than the Rams, 5-3 to 4-5. Washington only has one remaining game against a team with a winning record – at home against the Eagles in Week 15, but that may be underselling the threats posed by Atlanta and Dallas. Washington's other issues, should the tiebreakers get to this point, is a .262 SOV number that ranks 15th in the NFC.
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On the outside…
- Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
The Rams are still very much alive in the NFC West race after their incredible 44-42 win over Buffalo on Sunday night. Not only are they only one game behind the Seahawks with four to play, but they also already have a win in hand over their division rivals from Week Nine. The two teams will play again in Week 18 and it seems highly likely that game will be for the division crown. The Rams are the only 7-6 team in the NFC, one back of the Commanders for the seventh spot and one ahead of the Falcons, Cardinals and 49ers. Three of their last four games are against division opponents; they have previously lost to the Cardinals and beaten the 49ers.
- Atlanta (6-7)
The Falcons lost their fourth straight game on Sunday, opening the door for the Buccaneers to move back in front in the NFC South. However, like the Buccaneers they have just one game remaining against a team with a winning record – Washington on the road in Week 17. They play at Las Vegas this coming weekend and have remaining home dates with the Giants and Panthers…in other words, the exact three teams the Buccaneers just beat. We've already mentioned the Falcons' hammer of a tiebreaker against Tampa Bay with the head-to-head sweep but they also have a shot to get a head-to-head win over the Commanders. The Falcons' playoff odds currently sit at 50%, but they have a chance to control their own destiny if the Buccaneers lose in Los Angeles.
- Arizona (6-7)
The Cardinals were in first place in the NFC West three weeks ago but are now in a precarious position after three straight losses, two to Seattle. Their postseason odds now sit at 11% and they are going to need some help to make up two games in the Wild Card race and jump several other teams. Arizona does get a head-to-head shot at the Rams, who they also beat in Week Two, so if Los Angeles can overtake the Seahawks the Cardinals might still have a shot at the division title. Their next two games are against the three-win Patriots and Panthers.
- San Francisco (6-7)
The 49ers pulled out of a bit of a tailspin with a convincing home win over the Bears last weekend, but their playoff odds have sunk to 5%. They are two games back of the last Wild Card spot and have bad numbers in such tiebreakers as conference record, SOS and SOV. They also have a fairly rough remaining schedule against the Rams, Dolphins, Lions and Cardinals.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Buccaneers play their final game against an AFC opponent in Week 15, flying across the country to take on the Chargers. In terms of potential tiebreakers, it is the least important of Tampa Bay's final four games, but any loss over the next four weeks could put the Bucs back into a precarious position. Conversely, the Bucs also have an opportunity to put the Falcons on the brink if they can beat Los Angeles while the Falcons stumble against the Raiders.
