The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had 30 seconds to try to stave off a damaging loss to the Carolina Panthers on Sunday in Charlotte. Baker Mayfield made every second count, as the Buccaneers not only stormed back for a 26-23 overtime win but also clawed back into a tie for first place in the NFC South.
Mayfield directed a six-play drive to get Chase McLaughlin into range for a game-tying 51-yard field goal as time expired in the fourth quarter. McLaughlin then won the game with just over two minutes left in the extra period with a 30-yard field goal following a 38-yard Rachaad White breakaway run. As a result, the Buccaneers improved to 6-6 after winning two straight coming out of their bye week.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons dropped a last-minute heartbreaker of their own to the Los Angeles Chargers, their third defeat in a row as they also fell to 6-6. Atlanta still holds the top spot in the division thanks to their head-to-head sweep over the Buccaneers, but the two teams are essentially about to stage a five-week sprint to the finish line. Tampa Bay is seeking its fourth straight NFC South title, which would match the 2017-20 New Orleans Saints for the longest such run in the history of the division, which was formed in 2002. It would also be the first time in franchise history that the Buccaneers made the playoffs in five consecutive seasons.
Beyond the race for the division crown, the Buccaneers also have a shot at capturing a Wild Card berth if they don't overcome the Falcons. That's a tougher path to complete, but it's worth noting that Tampa Bay has its own head-to-head tiebreaker over the Washington Commanders, who care currently in possession of the third NFC Wild Card spot.
The Buccaneers take on the Las Vegas Raiders at home in Week 14, and that interconference matchup, while critical for Tampa Bay, is not the most consequential game of the weekend in the NFC hunt. The Falcons are playing at Minnesota, for instance, and a Seattle-Arizona showdown could do a lot to clarify the muddled NFC West race. Looking ahead to that intriguing weekend, here's how the NFC playoff race stands after 14 weeks:
1. Detroit (11-1), NFC North Leader
The Lions haven't lost since the Buccaneers took them down in Ford Field in Week Two, knocking down 10 straight for the first time in 90 years. Chicago turned it into a squeaker at the end, but the Lions plus-180 points differential is easily the best in the NFL. They haven't locked up the number-one seed and the only first-round bye in the conference playoffs because the Eagles have been equally hot, not dropping a game since their Week Four loss to the Buccaneers. The Lions remaining schedule is tough, but at least they get the Packers, Bills and Vikings all at home. Their two remaining road games are to Chicago in Week 16 – could weather be an issue – and to the ailing San Francisco 49ers in Week 17. Detroit looks good in a number of tiebreakers, including division record (3-0), conference record (7-1), strength of victory (.493) and strength of schedule (.493). The number-one seed is theirs to lose.
2. Philadelphia (10-2), NFC East Leader
The Eagles' hot streak started after the 33-16 drubbing they took at Raymond James Stadium on September 29. Since then, they have won eight in a row and five of those decisions have come by double-digit margins. Most recently, they went toe-to-toe with AFC powerhouse Baltimore and beat them 24-19. They have a 2.5-game lead over Washington in the NFC East plus one game remaining against each of their division foes to try to impose their will in that race. They also have a three-game lead over Seattle for the second seed and the top spot in the first round of the playoffs and a far better in-conference record (6-2 to 3-4), so they have an excellent chance to stay in the second spot if they can't catch the Lions. Philadelphia's only other loss so far was in Week Two to the Falcons, and had 2024 MVP candidate Saquon Barkley held onto a third-down pass near the end of that 23-22 decision the playoff landscape might look a lot different in both the race for the top seed and the NFC South title hunt.
3. Seattle (7-5), NFC West Leader
It was a very good week for the Seahawks, who not only scored 19 straight points in a narrow 26-21 road win against the New York Jets but also saw division foes Arizona and San Francisco lose. Arizona's game was a nail-biter against the Vikings, but the 49ers were blown out in a Buffalo blizzard and have now lost three in a row amid a rash of injuries. Seattle had the top spot in the division before Week 13 due to a tiebreaker but is now one game clear of both the Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams after winning three straight. They still have to play both of those teams one more time, however, and both games are on the road. While San Francisco is reeling, both the Cardinals and Rams have played consistently well of late and the division is obviously still very much up for grabs. The Seahawks' 3-4 conference record is not favorable if they were to fall into the Wild Card race.
4. Atlanta (6-6), NFC South Leader
As noted, the Falcons remain atop the NFC South because they beat Tampa Bay in both Week Five and Week Eight. The first game went to overtime after a last-second field goal drive by Atlanta; the second was a five-point decision that went down to a very close Hail Mary attempt by the Buccaneers. It is nevertheless a well-earned tiebreaker for Atlanta and particularly Kirk Cousins, who has an 8-1 TD-INT ratio against Tampa Bay this season and a 9-12 ratio in the rest of his games. Like the Buccaneers, the Falcons still have the Raiders and Panthers on their remaining docket, and those two teams are a combined 5-19. However, Atlanta has a tough draw this coming weekend in Minnesota and also has to travel to play the 8-5 Washington Commanders in Week 17.
5. Minnesota (10-2), Wild Card #1
If it's possible to quietly get to a 10-2 record, the Vikings have done it. They've been overshadowed in their own division by what may be the new America's Team in the Lions, and the Packers are also a favorite of the analysts behind rising-star quarterback Jordan Love. But 10-2 they are, and that includes a 2-1 record in the division and a 5-2 mark against conference opponents. The division may be decided in round-robin fashion in Weeks 17 and 18, when Minnesota takes on Green Bay at home before heading to Detroit. Minnesota also has games left against Atlanta at home and the Seahawks on the road, so their last five decisions are going to sway the standings in the conference and several divisions in a big way.
6. Green Bay (9-3), Wild Card #2
The Packers are in an interesting position. They have won three in a row and six of their last seven, and three of their last five games are against NFC North foes. That sounds great if we discount that the Lions and Vikings are also streaking. Green Bay's remaining games against Detroit and Minnesota are on the road, which means there's no chance of a frigid Lambeau Field effect in that three-way scrum. The Packers do finish the season at home against Chicago, so if the division is still up for grabs at that point they will have the meteorological advantage. The Packers are 1-2 in division play so far, so even if they could catch the Lions they would be facing a tough tiebreaker situation, and Detroit won their head-to-head meeting in Week Nine.
7. Washington (8-5), Wild Card #3
The Commanders looked vulnerable when they lost three straight from Weeks 10-12 but they stormed back with a 42-19 win over the overmatched Tennessee Titans in Week 13 and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels got back on track with four total touchdowns. Washington is the only NFC team with a bye in Week 14, so it has a chance to recuperate before a pretty interesting four-game end to the season. That includes games against both Atlanta and New Orleans (so, go Commanders) and divisional games against Philadelphia and Dallas. The Buccaneers' head-to-head win over Washington in Week One is definitely worth remembering.
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On the outside…
8. Tampa Bay (6-6)
So here we have the Buccaneers. A four-game losing streak heading into the bye week was obviously troubling, but the team hoped to come out of the break with the type of late-game streaks that led to postseason football in 2020 and 2023. Those efforts are off to a good start with wins over the Giants and the Panthers, and up next are the 2-10 Las Vegas Raiders. That record seems misleading after the Raiders took the one-loss Chiefs down to the wire on Black Friday before a botched snap clinched the Kansas City win. The Buccaneers are basically treating each game as a must-win playoff contest, and even though this one is against an AFC opponent a loss could be devastating. After the Raiders the Bucs have a tough road draw in Los Angeles against the Chargers, then three teams with losing records (Dallas, Carolina, New Orleans). The Buccaneers are in the eighth seed because they have the best conference record among the 6-6 teams.
9. Arizona (6-6)
The Cardinals led the disarrayed NFC West two weeks ago but losses to Seattle and Minnesota have put them in a tougher place. Arizona only scored 28 total points in that two-week span, but an offense featuring Kyler Murray, James Conner, Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. seems capable of detonating at any point. Arizona will control it's own fate; it has Seattle at home this week and San Francisco at home in the finale and also plays the Rams in LA in Week 17.
10. L.A. Rams (6-6)
The Rams are behind the Cardinals because Arizona won the first matchup between the two, but that series is still to be settled. Los Angeles has won five of its last seven but has a negative point differential on the season. They are also 4-5 in conference play.
11-12. San Francisco (5-7), Dallas (5-7)
San Francisco has lost three in a row since beating the Buccaneers in Tampa in Week 10, and they are now putting running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve. Dallas had lost five in a row to seemingly put their season in jeopardy, but have since beaten the Commanders and Giants. They face a tough schedule down the stretch and will be without quarterback Dak Prescott but aren't out of the fight yet.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
Tampa Bay will try to make it three wins in a row in a home game against the scuffling Raiders. The Buccaneers need to win one more game than the Falcons over the next five weeks to secure that fourth straight division title.
