The Tampa Bay Buccaneers put together their most complete game of the 2024 season in Week 15, resulting in a 40-17 momentum-boosting win over the Chargers in Los Angeles. A week after taking back first place in the NFC South, the Buccaneers held onto that spot even as the Atlanta Falcons also won in Las Vegas on Monday night. The overall situation remains the same: The Buccaneers have a one-game lead over the Falcons in the NFC South and need to maintain it in order to stay out of a tiebreaker given Atlanta's head-to-head sweep.
Elsewhere, the NFC playoff race got even tighter in Week 15, at least at the top. Detroit's loss to Buffalo allowed both Minnesota and Philadelphia to gain ground. The Vikings beat Chicago to catch the Lions at the top of the NFC North standings, and the Eagles won an in-state battle with Pittsburgh to keep the first-overall seed in play. The Lions, Eagles and Vikings are all now 12-2 in the top-heavy conference standings.
No NFC team has yet to clinch a division title, unlike the AFC in which three of the four divisions have already been decided. In fact, the Eagles are the only NFC team with more than a one-game lead in its division. There is, therefore, a lot to be decided in the Buccaneers' conference over the final three weeks.
Looking ahead to Week 16, here's how the NFC playoff race stands after 15 weeks:
- Detroit (12-2), NFC North Leader
The Lions maintained their spot atop both the division and the conference despite their loss, though both leads are now reliant on tiebreakers. The Lions have a head-to-head win over the Vikings, but that tiebreaker is purely theoretical since the two teams will meet again in Week 18. If Minnesota wins that game at Ford Field, the head-to-head tiebreaker would be rendered moot; in addition, Detroit only has a one-win lead over the Vikings in the next applicable tiebreaker, division record, so this could conceivably come down to record in common games. The Lions lost their first game since the Bucs beat them in Detroit in Week Two, but they didn't exactly go down meekly, scoring touchdowns on each of their last four drives in a wild 48-42 shootout with the red-hot Bills. Before their final showdown with Minnesota, the Lions have road games remaining at two teams trending in the other direction, Chicago and San Francisco. The biggest problem for Detroit is a brutal string of injuries to their defense, including Week 15 blows to defensive lineman Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis.
- Philadelphia (12-2), NFC East Leader
The Eagles had arguably the best combination of outcomes in Week 15, with their win coupled with the Lions loss to keep the first-round bye in play. Detroit still holds the top spot in the conference thanks to a conference record (8-1) that is one better than the Eagles (7-2). In that way, the Lions' loss to Buffalo was potentially the least damaging they could have suffered over the final four weeks. The Eagles now own the NFL's longest winning streak at 10 games (like the Lions, their last loss was to the Buccaneers) and they can take care of their own business in the NFC East this week by beating the Commanders in Washington. That would clinch the division, but even if Philly loses that game it will finish the season with home games against Dallas and the Giants, both of which are below .500.
- Tampa Bay (8-6), NFC South Leader
The Buccaneers didn't get any additional clearance in the NFC South race in Week 15 but they did move up the overall conference pecking order. With the Rams taking over the top spot in the NFC West, the Bucs claimed the third-overall seed in the NFC, for now, thanks to a better record in conference games (6-3 to 5-5). Atlanta's win over the Raiders eliminated the possibility of a division-clinching scenario for Tampa Bay in Week 16 but it did get them one step closer to a fourth straight NFC South crown. The Buccaneers' final three games are against teams with losing records (Dallas, Carolina, New Orleans), though the Cowboys have recently rebounded from a midseason slide. In terms of the Wild Card race, should that unfortunately become relevant, the Buccaneers remain one game behind Washington in the conference standings, and they have a head-to-head win over the Commanders. The Seahawks are the NFL's other 8-6 team, and the Bucs have a better record in conference games, 6-3 to 4-5.
- Los Angeles Rams (8-6), NFC West Leader
The Rams won their third straight game in Week 15 and the Seahawks finally stumbled against Green Bay, finally giving Los Angeles a shot at the top of the division. The NFC West has been tight and unpredictable all season, but it now seems to be coming down to these two teams, as The Athletic's playoff projection gives Arizona only an 11% chance of winning the division and San Francisco less than 1%. And, just like the NFC North, the West is likely to be decided in Week 18 when the Seahawks visit Los Angeles. The Rams currently own the top spot in the division because they won in Seattle in Week Nine, so it's possible this one comes down to record in common games. The Rams will travel to New York this week to take on the Jets in their final non-conference game.
- Minnesota (12-2), Wild Card #1
The Lions have seemed like the team to beat in the NFC all season but the Vikings won't go away in the NFC North race. They have won seven straight, albeit all against teams that currently have losing records, most recently the Bears. Minnesota's only two losses are to NFC teams (Lions and Rams), but they are just one behind the Lions in conference record. The Vikings have the worst strength of victory (SOV) and strength of schedule (SOS) numbers among the top six teams in the conference, and only Washington is worse among contending teams. Minnesota also has arguably the most difficult remaining schedule, with trips left to Seattle and Detroit and a home game against the equally hot Packers.
- Green Bay (10-4), Wild Card #2
The Packers got a statement win over a contender in Week 15, leaving Seattle with a convincing 30-13 victory. Green Bay has only lost twice since Week Five, and both were against Detroit. The Packers have not yet been eliminated in the NFC North but their division-winning odds are less than 1%, according to The Athletic. They would need to win out and have Detroit lose their last three even to have a shot, and that doesn't even factor in the Vikings in the middle. Still, the Packers are a near lock to capture a playoff berth, and can do so this weekend against the Saints. Green Bay could even get in with a loss if they get a combination of Seattle and Atlanta losses, or Rams and Falcons losses.
- Washington (9-5), Wild Card #3
The Commanders barely survived a trip to New Orleans, leaving with a 20-19 victory after the Saints failed to convert a two-point attempt with no time left on the clock. But a win is a win and Washington now has an 81% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic. The Commanders would surely prefer that the Buccaneers remain in control of the NFC South and out of the playoff race due to their loss in Tampa in Week One. They still have a shot to beat Atlanta at home in Week 16 and get that tiebreaker edge. They could also hang on to their slim division title hopes this weekend with their home game against the Eagles, who beat them in Philadelphia in Week 11. Washington has a better conference record than it's closest Wild Card competitor, Seattle, 6-3 to 4-5. Tiebreakers rarely get down to SOV and SOS, and the Commanders better hope they aren't needed this year because they are well behind the other playoff contenders at .278 and .408.
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On the outside…
- Seattle (8-6)
Seattle's playoff hopes took a big hit with its home loss to Green Bay on Sunday night, as The Athletic now gives them just a 28% chance to make the playoffs, almost all of that coming down to an NFC West title. That's a harsh reality for a team that had won its previous four games to grab the top spot in the division, but the remaining schedule isn't kind. It is full of opportunities, though, most importantly in a Week 18 game in Los Angeles. The Seahawks' only remaining road game is in Chicago, where the Bears are sliding, but before that they have to play host to the surging Vikings.
- Arizona (7-7)
Arizona still has a shot at the NFC West title (The Athletic pegs those odds at 11%), but their Wild Card outlook is bleak, largely due to a loss to Washington and two losses to Seattle. Overall, Arizona is 3-6 in conference play, and that doesn't bode well for their tiebreaker scenarios. Arizona does get a home game this weekend against the three-win Panthers, and it finishes the season at home against the slumping 49ers, but they have to visit the Rams in Week 17, which is assuredly a must-win game for the Cardinals.
- Atlanta (7-7)
The Falcons avoided going to the brink of elimination with their Monday night win in Las Vegas, as they snapped a four-game losing streak. They still hold a sledgehammer of a tiebreaker over the Buccaneers with their season sweep, but they have to catch Tampa Bay for that to matter. They have two home games remaining against the struggling Giants and Panthers, so the division could come down to what happens in Washington in Week 16. The Falcons also still have a 23% chance to earn a Wild Card spot, according to The Athletic. A 6-3 mark in conference play helps.
11-12. San Francisco (6-8), Dallas (6-8)
San Francisco beat Dallas in Week Eight, so they are slightly ahead in the bottom of the NFC hunt, but The Athletic gives each team less than a 1% chance to make it to the postseason. Both teams would officially be eliminated with losses in Week 16, as the Cowboys host the Buccaneers and the 49ers travel to Miami.
What Lies Ahead for Tampa Bay:
The Buccaneers make their final 2024 regular season road trip in Week 16, heading to Dallas to take on the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium, and it will be the fourth straight game in this head-to-head series that was ticketed for prime time. A midseason slump has knocked the Cowboys almost completely out of playoff contention but they have won three of their last four and are coming off a strong performance against the Panthers in Week 15.
