When the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hired Liam Coen to replace departing Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales this past offseason, it was understandably assumed that the team's new offense would have heavy Sean McVay influences. Coen spent 2022 as the Los Angeles Rams' offensive coordinator under McVay and was also on the Rams' staff from 2018-20.
One of the most obvious features of McVay's offense, at least in Coen's season as the coordinator, was its heavy reliance on three-receiver sets. The 2022 Rams ran 90.7% of their plays out of that personnel grouping, and only 7.4% out of two-tight end packages. And, indeed, that was Coen's plan heading into this season with the Buccaneers, in no small part because the roster featured an outstanding wideout duo in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Godwin, in particular, looked to be the perfect fit in the same slot role that Cooper Kupp thrived with the Rams.
Overall, Tampa Bay's offensive results under Coen have been quite good. The team ranks fifth in the NFL in scoring, eighth in total offense, 10th in both rushing and passing yards, second in third-down conversion rate, third in first downs and third in red zone efficiency. However, things became tougher for Coen and his charges when both Godwin and Evans went down with significant injuries against Baltimore in Week Seven. The Bucs have lost three games since and their point totals have decreased each week. That led into the bye week, when there was time for the Bucs' coaching staff to do some self-scouting over the past 10 games, and particularly the most recent stretch without Godwin and Evans.
"It was more of just evaluating, 'Ok, we come into the season as an '11' personnel team, but now with how we've kind of had to shift in ways, it was more about [evaluating] what pecking order of personnels do we want to play in?'" said Coen. "That could shift as we go. We've been '11,' '12,' and '21' – [those have been] the three prominent personnel groupings. Does it stay in that order is what we really had to evaluate by our personnel. Where are we most effective? Where can we be more effective if we give it more opportunities? That was really what we looked at."
On any given NFL play, there are five players on offense who are eligible to catch or run the football, besides the quarterback. The names for the groupings above reflect how many running backs, receivers and tight ends are on the field for the play. The first digit refers to the running backs and the second digit refers to tight ends, and however many of the five remaining spots are left are the receivers. So 11 personnel is one back, one tight end and three receivers; 12 is two-tight end personnel; 21 has two running backs on the field together.
In the Buccaneers' season-opening win over Washington – the first real game with Coen calling plays – the Bucs ran 50 of their 61 plays out of 11 personnel (82.0%) and scored 37 points. Over the first eight games of the season, the Bucs were in 11 personnel on 78% of their offensive snaps in all but two of those games. The real outlier was the Week Two win at Detroit, in which Tampa Bay had only 47 total snaps and 61.7% of them were in 11 personnel.
There's been a shift over the past two games. The Bucs were in 11 personnel 65.4% of the time against Kansas City in Week Nine and 65.5% of the time against the 49ers. The 16 plays Tampa Bay ran out of 12 personnel against San Francisco was its most against any opponent. Unfortunately, that game ended in a 23-20 loss, which represented Tampa Bay's second-lowest points total of the season. The Bucs have found a way to keep moving the ball without some of their best playmakers, but they struggled in a couple areas in which they have generally excelled this season.
"If you look at really just the last game, in terms of your self-scout…we stunk on third down and we didn't score touchdowns in the red zone," said Coen. "That was kind of ultimately what it came down to, and we had been pretty good in those situations up until that point."
Baker Mayfield, who has had perhaps the best season of his career to date, has had to adjust to the personnel shifts. In the 49ers game, none of his top three pass-catchers were receivers, but rather tight end Cade Otton and running backs Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. The wideouts accounted for four total receptions. As good as Coen has been at scheming up answers for any situation on offense, the connection between Mayfield and his receiver has been harder to get right in recent weeks.
"We need them to be open as much as possible," said Coen. "That's the one thing that maybe showed up a little bit last week, was that we've just got to win and the timing and the rhythm of, 'Oh, we have a backup tackle in, and we're having to chip, and we have to get the ball down the field, but when the ball needs to come out and the timing and the rhythm of the play, we need them open in that timing and rhythm of the play.' Those are some of the things that did kind of occur in that San Francisco game. When we needed the ball out, maybe we couldn't truly get it out at times. That's also on us, too, and helping put them in a position to get open and move them around a little bit, as well."
Godwin is not coming back before the end of the regular season, though he has expressed some hope he might be able to return for a playoff run if the Bucs make it into the postseason. However, Evans has returned to practice this week and is hopeful of playing on Sunday against the New York Giants in the Meadowlands. On Thursday, Coen said he didn't yet know if Evans was going to go on Sunday and if so, how much he could contribute, but it's obvious that Evans is going to be a big part of the equation going forward as the Bucs search for the right combination of personnel groupings.
"It helps us, that's for sure," said Coen. "I know that. … In terms of being able to move him around a little bit more, I think that's something that we've got to do a nice job of as a staff – is he just out at one all the time? Is he in the slot? Is he at two? Is he at three? Being able to move him like we were moving those guys around earlier in the year – that could definitely help us."
