Wide receiver Mike Evans caught two touchdown passes in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Week 16 win over Jacksonville and is now the NFL's 2023 leader in that category, with 13. He also led the team with seven catches and 86 yards in the game, doing so on just eight targets. As has been the case all season, the connection with Evans and quarterback Baker Mayfield has been one of the most reliable aspects of the Buccaneers' offense.
A week after winning an NFC Offensive Player of the Week award for his "perfect game" in Green Bay, Mayfield was dialed in again in Week 16, completing 26 of 35 passes for 283 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a 116.7 passer rating. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he had a completion percentage over expected of +6.5, marking the fifth time this season he has had a CPOE of that number or higher.
Mayfield also had a very strong expected points added (EPA) total of 14.0 against the Jaguars, his second highest single-game mark of this season. His only game with a higher EPA was the aforementioned Green Bay contest, in which he threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns. He did this despite being pressured on 18 of his 35 dropbacks, a pressure rate of 46.2% that is the second-highest he has faced all season.
Mayfield has two of the top six passing games in terms of total EPA over the past two weeks. His mark of 20.4 against the Packers is at the top of the list, and his total from this past Sunday ranks sixth. His two-week total of 34.4 EPA is the most by any NFL quarterback in that span.
Mayfield particularly targeted Evans when he was being covered by Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell. According to NGS, Campbell was the nearest defender on 12 of Evans' 33 routes and Mayfield hit him on five of those 12 plays, accounting for 71 yards and both of his touchdowns. Campbell attempted press coverage on 41.7% of Evans' routes but the Bucs' receiver was able to beat it, scoring both of his touchdowns off of the press. This is nothing new for Evans, who has a league-high seven touchdowns on routes against press coverage this season.
Evans' first touchdown catch was a simple pivot route out of a wide left alignment. Evans ran just over the goal line and to the inside of Campbell, then planted his feet and spun with his face toward the quarterback and ran towards the sideline, instantly gaining nearly three yards of separation from the defender. Evans was so open that NGS gave the play an 83.6% chance of being completed.
That was definitely not the case on Evans' second touchdown, a 22-yarder in the second quarter. As noted above, he had press coverage on the play from Campbell but also had single-high safety Andre Cisco closing in near the goal line. On this one, Evans had just 1.1 yards of separation from the nearest defender when Mayfield let the ball go, and that was down to 0.7 yards by the time the pass arrived, with Campbell right behind him and Cisco coming in from the side. Evans made a diving catch with Campbell landing on him in the end zone. According to NGS, that pass only had a 29.4% chance of being completed, making it Mayfield's most improbable completion of the game.
Whether he's wide open or in a tight window, Evans has been a very productive and reliable target for Mayfield throughout 2023, and that was particularly evident on the Bucs' two touchdown passes against Jacksonville.
