The Tampa Bay Buccaneers recorded their first shutout in 13 years in Week 18, defeating the Carolina Panthers, 9-0, in Charlotte, in the process clinching a third straight NFC South title. At one point, however, the Buccaneers were about an inch away from losing that shutout and falling behind, 7-0.
It was unequivocally the biggest play of the game and, given that, it was unsurprisingly turned in by safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Early in the second quarter, the Panthers were facing a third-and-four at the Bucs' 43-yard line. They lined up in a 3x1 alignment with Bryce Young in the shotgun flanked by running back Chuba Hubbard just to his left. Tight end Tommy Tremble and wide receivers Adam Thielen and Ihmir Smith-Marsette were all lined up to the right, with wide receiver D.J. Chark isolated on the left side.
The Buccaneers were in a single-high safety formation with Winfield in the deep middle but shaded to the right of the right hashmarks because of the trips formation on that side. Young looks to his right after taking the snap but the play breaks down quickly as Vita Vea gets penetration up the middle with a lethal swim move on right guard Nash Jensen. Young avoids the sack and breaks containment out to the left.
Chark runs a simple route up to the numbers and essentially stops right in front of cornerback Jamel Dean at the 32-yard line. Dean leaves the receiver to come up in pursuit of the scrambling young, but Chark then starts up again and immediately gains seven yards of separation from the cornerback. Young sees this action and lobs the ball over the top to the wide-open Chark, who has no defenders between him and the end zone.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Winfield is lined up a little over 21 yards away from Chark at the time of the snap. The safety's initial move as the play begins is to slide a bit towards Smith-Marsette, who is running a go up the right seam towards the end zone, while cornerback Carlton Davis follows Thielen on a corner route towards the sideline. At the time of the pass, Winfield, still hovering along the right hashmarks but now all the way down at the 13-yard line, is separated from Chark by 23.3 yards.
At the time Chark makes the catch just past the 20-yard line, Winfield has reacted to the direction of the play and is running horizontally across the field, now separated from Chark by 19.9 yards, or almost the exact distance that the receiver needs to run to get to the end zone.
Winfield accelerates and eventually hits a top speed of 18.80 miles per hour, the fastest any player on either team ran on the play. Winfield turns to angle slightly diagonally toward the front pylon as Chark gets right along the sideline at the eight-yard line. At this point, Winfield is 7.89 yards away from his target and running at that top speed of 18.80 mph. Winfield closes that gap to 2.10 yards as Chark hits the three and both players dive. Just before Chark can extend the ball over the goal line, Winfield pokes the ball free with his right hand. It bounces into the end zone and is recovered by Dean for a touchback.
Winfield ran a total of 59.73 yards on the play, more than any other player on either team. Prior to the play, the NGS model had the Panthers with an expected points added figure of 1.95. Due to the turnover and lost scoring opportunity, the play actually ended up with -3.21 EPA. The Panthers' win probability before the play, according to NGS, was 46.3% but it fell to 40.2% after the play, a precipitous drop given that there were almost three quarters left to play and the game was tied, 0-0, at the time.
Winfield, who has been making huge plays all season for the Buccaneers, didn't need another eye-opening moment to burnish his All-Pro resume, but he got one anyway, and it's one of the main reasons the Buccaneers were able to repeat as division champs.
