The last time the Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked fifth in the first round of the NFL Draft, they ended up with an NFL Rookie of the Year, a six-game victory improvement and, nine months later, their first playoff berth in three years.
Those are all nice goals for the Buccaneers in 2012, as they prepare once again to exercise Pick #5.
The end of the 2011 regular season on Sunday finalized the 2012 NFL Draft order, at least for the first 20 spots. The upcoming playoff verdicts will determine how much picks 21-32 shuffle before it's all said and done. Draft order is determined by the standings from the previous season, and the Buccaneers' 4-12 record in 2011 has earned them the fifth pick, which is exactly where they found Auburn running back Cadillac Williams in the 2005 draft.
To create the draft order each year, the NFL ranks the teams from 1-32 in terms of winning percentage, from lowest to highest. Obviously, there are some ties along the way, and the one and only tiebreaker that is invoked is "strength of schedule." Within any group of teams tied with the same record, the highest pick goes to the team with the lowest combined opponent winning percentage in the previous season.
That's how the Buccaneers specifically ended up with the fifth pick, rather than the fourth. Both Tampa Bay and Cleveland finished with winning percentages of .250, but the Bucs' strength-of-schedule was .551 (their opponents went 141-115-0 in 2011), while the Browns' was .531 (136-120-0).
Below is the entire 2012 draft order, again with tentative slots for the playoff participants. Eventually, the Super Bowl champion will be slotted at #32, the Super Bowl runner-up at 31, the two Conference Championship Game losers at 29 and 30, and so on down to 21. In the table below, "S.O.S." stands for strength of schedule.
# |
Team |
W-L-T |
Win% |
S.O.S |
Opp W-L-T |
1 |
Indianapolis Colts |
2-14-0 |
.125 |
.539 |
138-118-0 |
2 |
St. Louis Rams |
2-14-0 |
.125 |
.590 |
151-105-0 |
3 |
Minnesota Vikings |
3-13-0 |
.188 |
.559 |
143-113-0 |
4 |
Cleveland Browns |
4-12-0 |
.250 |
.531 |
136-120-0 |
5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
4-12-0 |
.250 |
.551 |
141-115-0 |
6 |
Washington Redskins |
5-11-0 |
.313 |
.477 |
122-134-0 |
7 |
Jacksonville Jaguars |
5-11-0 |
.313 |
.500 |
128-128-0 |
8 |
Carolina Panthers # |
6-10-0 |
.375 |
.504 |
129-127-0 |
9 |
Miami Dolphins # |
6-10-0 |
.375 |
.504 |
129-127-0 |
10 |
Buffalo Bills |
6-10-0 |
.375 |
.520 |
133-123-0 |
11 |
Kansas City Chiefs # |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
.512 |
131-125-0 |
12 |
Seattle Seahawks # |
7-9-0 |
.438 |
.512 |
131-125-0 |
13 |
Arizona Cardinals |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.469 |
120-136-0 |
14 |
Dallas Cowboys |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.473 |
121-135-0 |
15 |
Philadelphia Eagles |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.488 |
125-131-0 |
16 |
New York Jets |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.500 |
128-128-0 |
17 |
Oakland Raiders |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.504 |
129-127-0 |
18 |
San Diego Chargers |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.516 |
132-124-0 |
19 |
Chicago Bears |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.527 |
135-121-0 |
20 |
Tennessee Titans |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
.461 |
118-138-0 |
21 |
Denver Broncos* |
8-8-0 |
.500 |
.520 |
133-123-0 |
22 |
Cincinnati Bengals* |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
.492 |
126-130-0 |
23 |
New York Giants* |
9-7-0 |
.563 |
.520 |
133-123-0 |
24 |
Houston Texans* |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
.453 |
116-140-0 |
25 |
Atlanta Falcons* |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
.480 |
123-133-0 |
26 |
Detroit Lions* |
10-6-0 |
.625 |
.535 |
137-119-0 |
27 |
Baltimore Ravens* |
12-4-0 |
.750 |
.477 |
122-134-0 |
28 |
Pittsburgh Steelers* |
12-4-0 |
.750 |
.492 |
126-130-0 |
29 |
New Orleans Saints* |
13-3-0 |
.813 |
.441 |
113-143-0 |
30 |
New England Patriots* # |
13-3-0 |
.813 |
.449 |
115-141 |
31 |
San Francisco 49ers* # |
13-3-0 |
.813 |
.449 |
115-141 |
32 |
Green Bay Packers* |
15-1-0 |
.938 |
.457 |
117-139-0 |
*- Subject to Playoffs
- Subject to Coin Flip
Because they are in a tied "segment," the Buccaneers and Browns will swap draft positions for the remaining seven rounds. That is, Tampa Bay will pick fourth and Cleveland fifth in Round Two, then the two teams will switch back in Round Three, and so on.
Because the eventual addition of compensatory picks to the draft order will affect the overall pick numbers after Round Three, the Bucs only know their specific draft spots for the first three rounds at this point. After making the fifth pick in the first round, Tampa Bay will own #36 overall in the second round and #69 overall in the third round. Tampa Bay does not own its 2012 fourth-round pick, having traded it to the Philadelphia Eagles during last year's draft in order to move up in the fourth round and select Tennessee tight end Luke Stocker. The Bucs currently hold their own picks in Rounds 1-3 and 5-7 but no additional picks from any other team.
Obviously, trades can affect any of those draft spots, including the #5 overall pick. However, assuming the Buccaneers stay put they will be in the same spot they were seven years ago. The pick of Williams paid immediate dividends, as he rushed for 1,178 yards and was named the Associated Press NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and was also selected as the overall NFL Rookie of the Year by fan voting on NFL.com. Williams rushed for 434 yards in the first three weeks of 2005, an NFL record for most yards in a players' first three games, and his shoes were sent to the Pro Football Hall of Fame. After a 5-11 campaign in 2004, the Buccaneers won 11 games in 2005 and took their second NFC South title in four years.
Injuries subsequently kept Williams from putting a up a string of 1,000-yard seasons, but he remained a valuable member of the team through 2010, even rebounding from his second major knee surgery to play in all 16 games in 2009 and rush for 823 yards.
Recent #5 overall picks in the NFL Draft include cornerback Patrick Peterson (Cardinals, 2011), safety Eric Berry (Chiefs, 2010) and quarterback Mark Sanchez (Jets, 2009).
The 2012 NFL Draft will once again be spread out over three days this spring. The first round will be held on the evening of Thursday, April 26, beginning at 8:00 p.m. ET. The second and third rounds will take place on the evening of Friday, April 27 and the final four rounds will be conducted on Saturday, April 28, beginning at noon ET.