At the end of the 2023 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers had won their third straight NFC South title, with a 9-8 record that stood up through the tiebreakers to top the 9-8 New Orleans Saints. The Atlanta Falcons were third in the division at 7-10.
By the time the 2024 season rolled around, the Falcons were widely considered the favorites to win the division, and that shift was mostly due to one reason: the signing of veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. In one way, Cousins did shift the balance of power between the Buccaneers and Falcons because his two best games of the season were in Atlanta's sweep of Tampa Bay. Overall, however, Cousins eventually lost his starting job to rookie Michael Penix and the Falcons' year-over-year improvement was a modest one win to finish 8-9. The Buccaneers won their fourth straight NFC South crown at 10-7.
What will the narrative for the NFC South be in 2025? Will the Buccaneers be able to sustain their success of the 2020s? Will the Falcons thrive under Penix in Raheem Morris's second season at the helm? Can the Saints rebound from a 5-12 season under a new (still to be determined) head coach? Are the Dave Canales-led Panthers a team on the rise given the improved play of young quarterback Bryce Young?
We won't know the answers until we're well into the 2025 season, but public opinion will surely be swayed by the developments of the next seven months, just as they were when Cousins landed in Atlanta last March. Therefore, it's worth keeping an eye on what is going on in Atlanta, Charlotte and New Orleans throughout the offseason. We will do that with our "NFC South Check-Ins." Look for one in each of the next three months, after which they will continue to be updated as news lands for all three teams. We'll start with the Falcons.
2025 Atlanta Falcons
News/Developments Since End of 2024 Season:
The big changes on the Falcons' coaching staff happened a year ago, when Arthur Smith was dismissed after three seasons at the helm, all of which finished with 7-10 records. Former Buccaneers Head Coach Raheem Morris, more recently the defensive coordinator for the Rams, got his second shot at the corner office and brought in Zac Robinson and Jimmy Lake as his coordinators.
Robinson will continue to guide the Falcons' offense in 2025 after it finished sixth in the overall yardage rankings in 2024, including fifth in passing and 10th in rushing. However, the Falcons fired Lake on January 11 and a week later replaced him at defensive coordinator with Jeff Ulbrich, who most recently went 3-9 as the interim head coach of the New York Jets. Until he was bumped up after the firing of Robert Saleh in New York, he had spent a little more than three seasons coordinating a very good Jets defense. Ulbrich also has history with the Falcons, having served on Dan Quinn's staff from 2015-20 as a linebackers coach. In the last of those six seasons, Quinn was fired, Morris became the interim head coach and Ulbrich became the interim defensive coordinator.
The Falcons made a couple other notable change to Morris's staff in January, beginning with the dismissal of defensive line coach Jay Rodgers on January 11. He was replaced by Nate Ollie, who had most recently been the Houston Texans' assistant defensive line coach. Ollie also previously worked with Ulbrich in New York. The Falcons also hired Mike Rutenberg, who had been the Jets' linebackers coach, to serve as their defensive passing game coordinator.
Like most teams around the NFL, the Falcons also signed a list of free agents to reserve/futures contracts for the 2025 season shortly after their season ended. So far, Atlanta has added 17 such players, 13 of whom had spent time on their practice squad in 2024. That list includes former first-round wide receiver Phillip Dorsett and three players who at some point were elevated to the active roster for games this past season: guard Jovaughn Gwyn, defensive back Lamar Jackson (not that Lamar Jackson) and defensive end Khalid Kareem.
The end of the 2024 season also finalized the Falcons' list of opponents for the upcoming campaign. All four teams in the NFC South will play each other twice and will face all four teams in the NFC West and AFC East. The other three games on each team's schedule were determined by matching the standings against the team's in the NFC East, NFC North and AFC South. For the Buccaneers, who finished first in the NFC South, that meant a home against Philadelphia and trips to Detroit and Houston. The Falcons placed second in the division and thus drew a home meeting with Washington and games at Minnesota and Indianapolis.
Potential Unrestricted Free Agents
According to the Falcons, their roster currently includes 22 players who could become unrestricted free agents at the start of the new league year on March 12. That includes six players who started nine or more games for Atlanta in 2024: safety Justin Simmons (16 starts), cornerback Mike Hughes (15), outside linebacker Matthew Judon (15), outside linebacker Lorenzo Carter (15), defensive lineman Eddie Goldman (10) and center Drew Dalman (nine).
The Falcons traded with the Patriots just a few weeks before the start of the season in August to acquire Judon, who had one year left on his contract. Judon, who had 28 sacks across the 2021-22 seasons in New England but missed 13 games due to injury in 2023, played in all 17 games for the Falcons and finished second on the team with 5.5 sacks. He will turn 32 shortly before the 2025 season.
Simmons, the long-time Bronco standout, was another late addition to Morris's defense, signing with the Falcons on August 18, but only to a one-year deal. He produced 62 tackles, two interceptions and seven passes defensed for the Falcons. Simmons is currently ranked 69th on the Pro Football Focus list of top 100 pending free agents for 2025, and Judon is 71st.
Carter signed a two-year deal with the Falcons in 2023 but so far has produced just 3.0 sacks in 30 games for Atlanta, including none last year. Hughes was the slot corner for Atlanta and he contributed 66 tackles and six passes defensed. Goldman had 16 tackles and one sack. Dalman, who is considered a strong run-blocker particularly good in outside zone schemes, is the Falcons' highest-ranked free agent on the PFF top 100, at number 22.
Other potential unrestricted free agents on the Falcons' roster include, wide receivers Rondale Moore and Khadarel Hodge, tackle Storm Norton and cornerback Kevin King.
Could the Falcons' list of free agents grow by one by the start of the new league year? After Cousins was benched for Penix, attention immediately turned to the $10 million roster bonus due to the veteran quarterback if he is still on the roster on the fifth day of the league year. However, releasing Cousins would result in a $65 million dead cap hit, and shortly after the 2024 season ended General Manager Terry Fontenot said the Falcons were "very comfortable moving forward with him as a backup."
2025 NFL Draft
The Falcons' 8-9 finish left them tied in the draft order with Miami, Indiana and Arizona for the 13th through 16th picks in the first round. Due to their .519 strength of schedule figure, the Falcons were slotted third in that foursome, giving them the 15th overall pick in the 2025 draft.
Those four teams will rotate in each successive round, with the team picking 16th in Round One jumping up to 13th in Round Two and the others all moving down a spot. And so on in Rounds Three through Seven.
The Falcons are not exactly loaded with draft picks in 2025; they currently only own four picks overall and two in the top 100. The Judon trade mentioned above cost them their third-rounder, which would have been number 77 overall. Two trades made midway through the 2023 season also impact their 2025 draft haul. The Falcons traded a 2025 sixth-round pick to the Rams to get wide receiver Van Jefferson, and got a seventh-rounder back from Los Angeles. A trade with the Eagles for defensive end Kentavius Street cost them their sixth rounder.
In addition, the NFL ruled that Atlanta would have to forfeit its 2025 fifth-rounder for making "improper contact" with free agents Cousins, Darnell Mooney and Charlie Woerner before the start of free agency. That would have been pick number 144.
That leaves Atlanta with picks in the first (15th overall), second (46th), fourth (114th) and seventh (218th) rounds.
It's obviously far too early to have much indication on which players or positions the Falcons might target with the 15th pick but, of course, that hasn't stopped the mock draft machine from cranking out new predictions every day. Analysts clearly believe Atlanta will have interest in an edge rusher after using top-eight picks on offensive skill position players in each of the last four years. And the Falcons' search for a more effective pass rush has been going on for years. After Atlanta ranked last in the NFL in sacks from 2019-22, it made some improvement in 2023 with 42 sacks to tie for 21st that season. However, the Falcons slipped back to 31st this past season, creating just 31 sacks.
Both Bucky Brooks and Eric Edholm of NFL.com paired Atlanta with Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart, while PFF's Max Chadwick went with a different Aggies pass rusher, Nic Scourton. CBSsports.com draft analyst went with Jalon Walker, an edge rusher out of Georgia. NFL.com's Daniel Jeremiah thinks the Falcons may have interest in Michigan cornerback Will Johnson, while Josh Edwards of CBS made a surprise prediction with Penn State tight end Tyler Warren.
