The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the postseason for the fourth year in a row, which matches the longest streak of playoff seasons in franchise history. But while the first such stretch, from 1999-2002, finished with a Super Bowl crescendo, the Buccaneers current playoff trend has gone in the other direction. Tampa Bay won its second Super Bowl in 2020, lost in the Divisional Round in 2021 and were beaten in the Wild Card round last year.

In terms of preseason expectations outside of Bucs headquarters, simply capturing a third straight NFC South title was a better outcome than expected, but inside the building that is far from the final goal. With five wins in their last six games, the Buccaneers believe they are peaking at the right time and hope to make some noise now that they're in the dance.

"This season had a lot of ups and downs," said linebacker Lavonte David. "We started off strong, then we hit low and then we had a good stretch. Now we really just want to stay consistent. It is a one-game season. We always tell the guys it is a one-game season.  It is a small area for mistakes.  We definitely are excited and happy."

The opponent is the defending NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles, who followed up their narrow loss to Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII with an 11-6 record in 2023 that included a 10-1 start. A 1-5 stumble to close out the season allowed Dallas to pass them for the NFC East title but the Eagles are a very dangerous five seed with the NFL's seventh highest scoring average, an elite offensive line and a defensive front loaded with difference makers. Quarterback Jalen Hurts threw 23 touchdown passes and ran for another 15 scores, wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith each surpassed 1,000 yards, as did running back D'Andre Swift on the ground. Swift and Brown both made the Pro Bowl, as did tackle Lane Johnson, center Jason Kelce, guard Landon Dickerson and outside linebacker Haason Reddick.

"They're a talented team," said Buccaneers Head Coach Todd Bowles. "They've had some injuries over the past few weeks, as well. [I] can't really put a finger on it until I watch more film, but again they still won double-digit games. They're a very talented team. They went to the Super Bowl last year. They're going to be a tough team to beat."

The Bucs and Eagles have a rich shared playoff history with five previous meetings, including Tampa Bay's NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia in 2002. The most recent was just two years ago, in the opening round of the 2021 playoffs, also at Raymond James Stadium. The Bucs won that won, 31-15, but even more recent was the Eagles trip to Tampa in Week Three, which Philly dominated, 25-11.

That game, like the one coming up, was on the Monday Night Football stage. Tampa Bay's offense was still taking shape in September, with a new coordinator in Dave Canales and a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield, and the Eagles held them under 200 yards of total offense. Though the Bucs were 2-1 after that game, the lopsided loss did not convince many observers that they were true playoff contenders. The Bucs stuck together, however, and the offense improved steadily.

"We have a locker room full of guys that are comfortable being counted out," said Mayfield. "That's when we're most comfortable. Just all we wanted was a chance to get in and now we're here and we've got to handle it the right way."

The Bucs beat New Orleans after that lost to Philadelphia, then took their bye week. After the break, the team came back to lose six of its next seven and drop to the fringes of the playoff race. Adopting a week-by-week playoff mentality starting in Week 13, the Bucs surged to a 5-1 finish. That kind of stretch run turnaround doesn't happen often.

"It's extremely hard," said Bowles. "Nobody turned on each other. Everybody battened down the hatches. We knew we had work to do and mistakes to correct, and when everybody counted us out, we didn't, and that's the biggest thing. That's the main thing we got out of it, and you see the fruits of our labor winning the last five out of six to get in."

As of Week 18, the Bucs were literally in a win-or-go-home game, and that's the way it will be from here on out. The first challenge is an Eagles team that knows how to make a deep playoff run. Another chapter in the postseason Bucs-Eagles storybook is about to be written. Here are four top storylines and four key matchups that will help determine how that chapter turns out.

TOP STORYLINES

Health Watch – The Buccaneers won their Week 18 game at Carolina when they had to to keep the season going, but they only scored nine points and it's fair to wonder if Baker Mayfield's sore ribs made it difficult for him to continue a late-season hot streak. Mayfield also limped off the field with an ankle issue during that game, so his recovery during the long week will definitely be a main topic of discussion in Tampa. It would be very surprising if Mayfield couldn't play on Monday night, but the question of how effective he can be won't be answered until kickoff. Meanwhile, the Eagles suffered a couple new injuries in their season finale and were already dealing with some prominent absences. Running back D'Andre Swift (illness) and wide receiver DeVonta Smith (ankle) both missed the loss to the Giants and leading wide receiver A.J. Brown left with a knee injury. Swift should be ready to return for Monday's game and there's optimism in Philly about Swift as well. Brown appears to have avoided any ligament tears but his status will be a major concern this week. On defense, the Eagles were without standout cornerback Darius Slay (knee) but hope he can return for the playoffs; however, rookie safety Sydney Brown left the Giants game with a knee injury and may be done for the season. Chances are that both teams will be close to full strength by Monday, but those developments are worth keeping an eye on.

Can't Lose Ground – The Eagles' biggest edge in their two-touchdown win in Tampa in September was in the two team's respective ground games. Philadelphia ran for 201 yards and 5.0 per carry, including 130 by Swift and 28 plus a touchdown by Hurts. The Buccaneers ground game gained just 41 yards and averaged 2.4 yards per tote. Even without Swift last week, the Eagles still ran for 133 yards on the Giants to finish with the NFL's eighth best rushing attack in 2023. The Buccaneers can counter with a run defense that, despite that 200-yard performance by Philadelphia in Week Three, still finished fifth in yards allowed per game (95.3) and eighth in yards allowed per carry (3.84). A good part of the Eagles' run game success is an offensive line that just had three players voted into the Pro Bowl, but the Bucs' defensive front is healthy and features some top-notch run-stoppers in Vita Vea, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. As for the Buccaneers' offense, it would be disingenuous to suggest it includes a top-level rushing attack after the team finished 32nd with 88.8 yards per game. However, it was better down the stretch, with four 100+-yard games in the last seven weeks. Running back Rachaad White moved the chains in a close-out situation in Carolina and finished just 10 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard rushing season. Unfortunately, Philadelphia counters with the NFL's 10th-best rushing defense.

Is Momentum an Actual Factor? – As noted above, the Buccaneers and Eagles arrived at this clash in two very different fashions. The Eagles had the NFL's best record at 10-1 before losing five of their last six. At the same time the Eagles were 10-1, the Buccaneers were 4-7 and had the 11th-best record in the NFC, but they closed out the regular season on a 5-1 run. That gave them home field advantage in this matchup but didn't necessarily make them the favorites; the Eagles opened the week as 2.5 point road favorites. Obviously every team would rather finish a season 5-1 rather than 1-5, but do those two disparate runs tell us anything about the upcoming game? Can the Buccaneers actually carry any late-season momentum they've picked up into the postseason? Does the Eagles slide hint at any significant problems that will hold them back in January or are they still prime Super Bowl contenders like they appeared to be through the first three months of the season?

What Will the NFC Landscape Look Like by Monday Night? – Because they pulled the Monday night slot in the NFL's relatively new "Super Wild Card Weekend," the Buccaneers and Eagles will know exactly what's at stake by the time they take the field. Both teams head into the weekend knowing that a victory could earn them one of four different Divisional Round possibilities: road games at San Francisco, Dallas or Detroit or a home game against the Rams. The 49ers will be through to that round on their top-seed bye and will have a home game against the lowest remaining seed. If Dallas and Detroit hold serve in their home games this weekend against Green Bay and Los Angeles, respectively, it would be the winner of Monday's game headed out to California. If only one team out of the Cowboys and Lions loses, the Bucs/Eagles destination would be to the city of the winning team. If both Dallas and Detroit are upset by road underdogs, the winner of Monday's game would get another home game against the Rams. The Buccaneers will have their usual brief Saturday schedule on Sunday, so they will have an opportunity to watch a lot of the action unfold as the Packers and Cowboys kick off at 4:30 and the Rams and Lions follow at 8:00. Ostensibly they'll be rooting for a pair of road wins so they will have a shot to extend their home field advantage at least one more week.

KEY MATCHUPS

1. Eagles RB D'Andre Swift vs. Buccaneers LB Lavonte David

D'Andre Swift had a field day against the Bucs' in Week Three, with 158 yards from scrimmage and 7.9 yards per touch. He did most of his damage running behind the right side of Philadelphia's line, which is where Pro Bowl tackle Lane Johnson operates, gaining 107 yards on 10 carries in that direction. He produced a positive EPA on 75% of his carries, which constitutes a very fine evening of work for a running back. Swift, who came to Philly in a draft-weekend trade after three seasons in Detroit, recorded his first career 1,000-yard rushing season (229 carries for 1,049 yards) and was rewarded with his first Pro Bowl invitation. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, he had a 45.0 rushing success rate in 2023, which was fifth best among all NFL backs heading into Week 18. Lavonte David continues to spearhead one of the best run defenses in the NFL, as the Bucs finished in the top five category for the fourth time in the five seasons since Todd Bowles came to town. David led the Bucs with 133 tackles, including a team-high 61 on running plays, and his 17 tackles for loss was tied for seventh in the NFL and second among non-edge rushers. David defied expectations after signing a one-year deal to play a 12th season in Tampa, performing at an All-Pro level and even registering 4.5 sacks and five passes defensed. The Eagles like to rotate their backs heavily, so Swift won't be the only concern for David and his crew, but given the results from Week Three he may be the most important Eagle to keep in check.

2. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans vs. Eagles CB Darius Slay

If the Buccaneers have any clear advantage over the Eagles statistically, it pertains to when they are throwing the ball. Tampa Bay's passing attack ranked around the middle of the NFL pack in terms of yards per game, but Mayfield threw 28 touchdown passes and the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin remain the key to the Bucs being explosive on offense. Philadelphia's pass defense, meanwhile, ranked second to last in the NFL in passing yards surrendered and allowed 35 touchdown passes, second most in the NFL behind Washington's 39. Evans earned his fifth Pro Bowl selection with a team-leading 1,255 receiving yards and he tied for the NFL lead with 13 touchdown catches. Heading into Week 18, Evans had been the target on 50% of the passes that Mayfield had thrown 20+ yards in the air, so he is the most likely Buccaneer to burn the Eagles for chunk plays downfield. As noted above, Slay has been dealing with a knee injury that has caused him to miss the last four games but there is optimism in Philadelphia that he'll be back for the playoffs. Slay made his second and third Pro Bowl teams in 2021 and 2022, and despite missing five games this season he racked up another 57 tackles, two interceptions and 14 passes defensed. In the last Eagles-Bucs Wild Card game, Slay shadowed Evans on 76.9% of his routes and allowed three catches for 49 yards on five targets.

3. Eagles C Jason Kelce vs. Buccaneers NT Vita Vea

Jason Kelce is another one of the Eagles' three Pro Bowl blockers in 2023, marking just the seventh time he's made the all-star game. Kelce has anchored the Philly line since 2011, starting all 214 games (playoffs included) in which he's played. Kelce annually allows one of the lowest pressure rates among NFL centers and he remains a very athletic and agile player in his 13th season. He is extremely good at pulling plays, quickly getting to the outside to clear lanes for the Eagles' backs, and he can hold up against defensive linemen who outweigh him significantly. That will be the case on Monday, as Bucs nose tackle Vita Vea will have somewhere in the vicinity of 50 pounds on Kelce. However, Vea is also a very agile player, as he showed with a spectacular swim move on Carolina guard Nash Jensen last Sunday to flush Bryce Young out of the pocket. Vea is also the centerpiece of the Bucs' high-ranked rush defense as he is very hard to move. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Bucs' defense allows 3.5 yards per carry and 0.9 yards before contact to opposing backs when Vea is on the field. When he's not in the game, opponents average 4.1 yards per carry and 1.3 yards before contact. Vea also ranks third on the team with 5.5 sacks and tied for second with nine quarterback hits.

4. Buccaneers T Luke Goedeke vs. Eagles LB Haason Reddick

The Eagles' pass rush was historically good in the their 2022 Super Bowl season, leading the league with 70 seconds, 15 more than the second place team. Those numbers dipped a bit on 2023, to 43 total sacks and 6.60% sack rate that ranked 24th in the NFL. However, edge Haason Reddick was as dangerous as ever, making his second straight Pro Bowl after leading the team with 11.0 sacks and tying for the team lead with 23 quarterback hits. According to NGS, Reddick had the ninth fastest "time to pressure" in 2023, at 2.66 seconds and he was third overall in such "quick pressures." Philadelphia also uses the athletic Reddick in other ways away from the line of scrimmage, but it's his pass-rushing prowess that will matter in the matchup with Luke Goedeke, the Bucs' right tackle. While the Eagles list Reddick as their "SAM," or strongside, linebacker, he has rushed off both edges but is more commonly coming from the left end of their line. Goedeke just completed his first full season as the Bucs' starting right tackle and he helped the team rank 14th in sacks allowed per pass play (7.04%). Tampa Bay's run game has also picked up in the second half of the season, as articulated above. Goedeke is a powerful blocker who plays with an edge and isn't afraid to mix it up with the defense. With Mayfield possibly still dealing with sore ribs on Monday night, it will be imperative for Goedeke to keep Reddick away from the quarterback as much as possible.

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