In the final push of the 2023 slate, two Florida teams in the driver's seat of their respective divisions will go head-to-head on Christmas Eve at Raymond James Stadium. The 7-7 Buccaneers will host the 8-6 Jaguars as both vie for advantageous playoff seeding. The Bucs are currently in a two-way tie with the Saints in the NFC South and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Saints will travel to Tampa Bay for a revenge game in Week 17, but the Bucs are focused on continuing to build momentum off a routing 34-20 victory over the Packers in Week 15 at Lambeau Field, a game in which Baker Mayfield posted a perfect 158.3 passer rating. The Jaguars have dropped three straight games but are still in first place of the AFC South with a tiebreaker over the Colts. This matchup could serve as a turning point for either team in the playoff race. After a week of preparation, here is what Sunday's contest comes down to:

4 Stats That Matter

• The Jaguars did not score a point on any of their three red zone drives in Week 15 against Baltimore. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed a 41.7 opposing red zone touchdown percentage in 2023 (fourth-lowest in the NFL).
• Per Next Gen Stats, Mike Evans has recorded seven receiving touchdowns versus zone coverage in 2023 (tied for second-most in the NFL). Jacksonville is in zone defense on 82.2 percent of dropbacks in 2023 (fourth-most in the NFL).
• The Jaguars defense leads the NFL with 25 takeaways (tied with San Francisco) in 2023. Jacksonville is 6-2 in games with two-plus defensive takeaways in 2023.
• Rachaad White is one of four players that have accounted for 65-plus percent of their team's rush yards in 2023: Joe Mixon (69.0), Josh Jacobs (68.7), Christian McCaffrey (66.6). White has 529 rush yards and 756 scrimmage yards since Week Nine (second-most in the NFL during that span, behind only McCaffrey). The Jaguars' defense has allowed 136.0 rush yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry and seven rushing touchdowns since Week 10.

3 Lineup Notes

• The Buccaneers ruled out receiver Rakim Jarrett on Friday, while giving questionable designations to defensive lineman William Gholston and safety Antoine Winfield Jr. Winfield Jr., the Bucs' tone-setter on defense, was added to the injury report on Friday with a calf injury.
• Tampa Bay's injury report for Thursday of Week 16 provided encouragement. Wide receiver Chris Godwin went from limited to non-participation, due to an allotted day of rest. Meanwhile, nose tackle Vita was upgradedon the report to full participation after being limited on Wednesday. That marked Vea's first full-participation practice since Friday of Week 13. Vea suffered a toe injury in the team's win over Carolina and did not practice at all the following week, eventually being ruled inactive for the game in Atlanta.
• For the Jaguars, starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, while in concussion protocol. He returned for a limited session on Friday, providing him a chance to play against the Bucs if cleared in time. Jaguars' Head Coach Doug Pederson said on Friday that Lawrence's chances of playing are a "coin flip." The Jaguars had six players listed as questionable on the final injury report, including Lawrence (ankle/concussion), cornerback Christian Braswell (hamstring), cornerback Tyson Campbell (quadriceps), safety Andre Cisco (groin), receiver Zay Jones (knee/hamstring) and tight end Brenton Strange (foot).

2 Challenges Presented by the Jaguars

Mobile quarterback Trevor Lawrence started the week in concussion protocol and could suit up on Sunday if he passes the mandatory tests. If not, the Jaguars would turn to C.J. Beathard, presuming an injury to his shoulder does not sideline him, as well. Jacksonville possesses a variety of weapons on offense from hybrid receiver/tight end Evan Engram, explosive back Travis Etienne to route-running aficionado Calvin Ridley. Their mismatches put defenses in disadvantageous positions and if opponents stack the box to try and limit Etienne, the Jaguars can exploit with Ridley and Engram. If teams use a shell coverage to try and limit the big plays over the top, Etienne can take advantage of a light box and Engram/Ridley can exploit the underneath area with Cover 2 beaters – similar to what Chris Godwin did against the Packers in Week 15. Ridley has wiggle after the catch and smooth transitions at the stem to bait defensive backs. Etienne has top-end speed and the physicality/power to excel in goal-line situations. Engram has the speed to stretch the field vertically and the fluidity in-and-out of breaks to work the intermediate area of the field.

Jacksonville's defense has a duo of athletic edge rushers in Josh Allen and Travon Walker, both of which were former top-10 picks. The pair has combined for 19.5 sacks this season. Allen has set a career-high with 13.5 sacks and overwhelms tackles with a lethal first step and has the ability to maintain momentum around the edge. Foyesade Oluokun, the tackling machine, wears the green dot and possesses wrap-up technique and coverage prowess to blanket running backs/tight ends. The Jaguars are also tied for the league lead in takeaways, led by cornerback Darious Williams' four interceptions. On Sunday, the Buccaneers will have to out-physical the visiting Florida team at Raymond James Stadium that boasts an opportunistic defense and embarrassment of riches on offense.

1 Key Quote from Todd Bowles

On challenges that the Jaguars pose:

"Defensively, they lead the league in takeaways – that's going to be critical for us, not turning the ball over. They've got two great edge rushers that really know how to get after the passer and stop the run on the edge. They've got two fast linebackers on the inside. Offensively, the way [Calvin] Ridley is playing right now, it's hard to argue he's not one of the top three [wide receivers] in the league right now with the way he's been playing. Trevor Lawrence is a phenomenal quarterback, running and throwing the football. [Travis] Etienne can run and catch the ball out of the backfield. [Evan] Engram as a tight end/wide receiver – whatever you want to call him – he can block, he can run, he can catch. They present a lot of problems."