The 5-5 Indianapolis Colts will host the 4-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, November 26, at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Bucs will look for a bounce back game after losing five of their previous six matchups following a rousing 3-1 start against a Colts' team that boasts a high-scoring offense and an opportunistic defense. With Indy's run-oriented approach, the Bucs will have to match the Colts' physicality on the field. The Bucs are coming off a loss to the Niners but are still just one game behind the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South race. The Colts are looking to build momentum following a restful bye week and prior two-game win streak. After a week of preparation, here is what the Week 12 matchup comes down to:

4 Stats That Matter

• Jonathan Taylor has 286 rushing yards since Week Seven (ninth among running backs in that span). In contrast, the Bucs have allowed 90.0 rush yards per game (sixth-fewest) and 3.7 yards per carry allowed (fifth-fewest) in 2023.
• Zaire Franklin ranks third in the NFL with 117 tackles and he has accumulated 1.5 sacks, two forced fumbles and three passes defensed.
• The Colts are averaging 24.2 points per game and have scored at least 27 points in three of the four previous matchups.
• The Bucs rank first in the NFL in touchdown percentage allowed inside the red zone, allowing only 34.4% of those drives to culminate in a score. Conversely, the Colts are tied for the sixth-best mark in the league, scoring a touchdown on 60% of their red zone drives.

3 Lineup Notes

• The Bucs' defense took a significant blow in the third quarter of the team's 27-14 loss to the 49ers in Week 11, as linebacker Lavonte David and cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean all exited the game due to injuries. Dean left with foot and ankle injuries suffered on Brandon Aiyuk's 76-yard touchdown play and Davis (hip) and David (groin) followed suit later in the period. Both linebacker Lavonte David and cornerback Jamel Dean were definitively ruled out for the game on Friday after not practicing during the week.
• Todd Bowles confirmed on Friday that both linebacker Devin White (foot) and cornerback Carlton Davis III (hip) will be game-time decisions at Lucas Oil Stadium. White practiced for the first time this week on Friday morning in a limited fashion. Davis upgraded from limited participation on Wednesday and Thursday to full participation on Friday but is still not guaranteed to play against the Colts.
• The Colts ruled out three players, including two starters, ahead of the Week 12 matchup against the Bucs. Cornerback Julius Brents (quad), tight end Drew Ogletree (foot) and center Ryan Kelly (concussion) were the trio of players that will be sidelined on Sunday. Brents has not practiced since suffering his quad injury during the Week Seven matchup against the Browns. Ogletree suffered his foot injury during the Week Nine game against the Carolina Panthers and did not play in Week 10 against the New England Patriots. Kelly suffered a concussion during the Week 10 game against the Patriots and seemed to be trending in the right direction to be cleared from the protocol after practicing in full on Thursday but downgraded to non-participation on Friday.

2 Challenges Presented by the Colts 

The Colts operate out of a downhill rushing attack featuring an RPO-centric system that benefits the tandem of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. With Gardner Minshew commanding the unit, the Colts rank ninth in the NFL in scoring and 10th in rushing yards per game. Shane Steichen likes to use multiple tight end sets to work the bigger-bodied hybrids on the edges for angle blocks. After missing the first four games of the season, Taylor has gradually been eased back into the fold. The 2021 triple crown winner, Taylor, runs with outstanding pad level and balance. Taylor has an elite combination of bend and burst. He has home-run speed in space and makes initial defenders miss. The one-cut talent has quickness around the edge to outrun pursuit and has the power to run between the tackles. Zack Moss, his counterpart, runs with vision, patience and effortlessly absorbs contact. Arm tacklers are no match for Moss, the personification of a cement truck. Quenton Nelson, the team's stalwart left guard, sets the tone. He is an imposing force on traps and pulls, elongating rush lanes and is a technically-sound mauler in the trenches.

Out of the bye week, the Colts released three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard. Leonard's playing time had dipped as a series of back injuries hindered his production. The club's sixth-year linebacker Zaire Franklin has filled the void as the Mike linebacker in Gus Bradley's system with 117 tackles (third in the NFL).  The Colts rank 10th in sacks per pass play with defensive ends Dayo Odeyingbo, Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner leading the charge. Since Week Nine, Buckner has led all defensive players with a pass rush win rate of 27.6%. His 11 total pressures rank ninth over that two-week span. He consistently wreaks havoc with push up the middle, bolstering the front. On the back end, Kenny Moore II has carved out a role as one of the best slot corners in the game. He notched two pick-six's against the Panthers and is adept at mirroring slot receivers, blitzing and quickly getting downhill through the B and C-gap.

1 Key Thought from Larry Foote

On the Colts' offense:

"Starts with the running back, they [have] a good offensive line, [and] they don't get sacked that much. Every quarterback every week to week now they look like Houdini in that pocket. It's going to be a challenge for us. They [have] bigger receivers, bigger tight ends chilling with my guys, the linebackers, [so] we have to be physical with those guys because they are at an advantage with the height and the length, but they [have] weapons. They have a good offense, similar to Philadelphia [Eagles] a little bit, but we [have] to stop '28' (running back Johnathan Taylor), and we have to do a good job with their O-line."