Over the first nine weeks of the 2024 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed their opponents to average 130.8 rushing yards per game to rank 21st in the NFL, and 4.95 yards per carry to rank 28th. This was uncharacteristic of a Todd Bowles defense; over his first five seasons with the Buccaneers, first as defensive coordinator then head coach, his crew had allowed the fewest rushing yards of any team, at 93.0 per game. Those five teams had four top-five finishes in that category and the one "blip," in 2022, only saw them fall to 15th.
In the 10th week of this season, the Buccaneers surrendered 75 rushing yards at a pace of 3.4 per tote in a loss to San Francisco. Perhaps that sparked a conversation among the team's defensive coaches, because there proved to be one major takeaway from the self-scouting the staff did during bye week that followed. According to Run Game Coordinator/Defensive Line Coach Kacy Rodgers, the coaches decided that putting an emphasis on getting back to stopping the run first would spark a defense that had underperformed to that point.
"Once we got to the bye, we figured out what we can do," said Rodgers. "We've always kind of hung our hat on being able to do that so we said, 'We have to get back to doing that. If we can kind of try to limit this, we can attack that.' Every team has weaknesses, so we try to make this a positive [and] then we're able to do [that]. Plus, the guys really bought in."
Including the 49ers game just before the bye week, the Buccaneers have allowed a league-low 88.9 rushing yards per game after Week Nine. Opponents have averaged 3.96 yards per carry against Tampa Bay in that span, the third-lowest mark in the league. No opponent has hit 100 rushing yards or 4.0 yards per carry against Tampa Bay since early November. Things have come to a head in the last couple weeks, as the Buccaneers held the Chargers to 32 rushing yards in Week 15 and the Cowboys to 31 last Sunday night. That marked the first time in team history the Bucs have held two straight opponents below 35 rushing yards.
The Buccaneers have had to navigate a constantly shifting defensive lineup due to injuries, as have other teams around the league, but they still possess some elite run defenders, starting with nose tackle Vita Vea and linebacker Lavonte David. According to Rodgers, the Bucs' issues against the run did not stem from any physical mismatches, but rather from attention to detail in issues such as gap integrity. That made it possible to fix the problem within the season without having to find new personnel.
"It would be different if I was walking in saying they were just whooping us physically," said Rogers. "[Rather], we would have a misfit here, a missed tackle there, then it was all very explosive. Not that that was good, but that was a lot [better] than sitting here [saying] they physically whooped us and there's nothing that we could do – now we have a problem. I think everyone is buying in and we're all accountable, so we all have to be exactly where [we're supposed to be], and that helped us. We are a lot better when we make teams one dimensional."
That could be the key for the Buccaneers' defense in Sunday's must-win contest against the Carolina Panthers. Carolina ranks 30th in the NFL in passing offense but a more respectable 16th in rushing offense thanks to the emergence of running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard ranks sixth in the NFL with 1,195 rushing yards and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry behind a line that was bolstered by heavy spending in free agency at the guard positions.
Hubbard ran for 152 yards in a 36-30 overtime win over Arizona last Sunday, including 28 and 21-yard breakaways that constituted all the yards of the game-winning drive in the extra period. Quarterback Bryce Young contributed to the ground game, too, with 68 yards and a score. Rodgers expects the Panthers to break down that game tape and decide on a similar approach this Sunday in Tampa.
"You look at their last Arizona game, I think they ran the ball 36 times for 243," he said. "When we spoke to the defense on Tuesday, this is the ideal blueprint you would think they would want to play. They ran the ball, averaged almost [seven] yards a carry, six explosive runs. You're managing a young quarterback so you give him a running game, now it opens every thing up. Now the problem is he played a major role in the running game because he had about 80 yards rushing of that himself. Their recipe that they showed against Arizona is really very indicative of how we think they want to play and how we feel like they will attack us."
The Bucs have weathered just about every attack they've faced from opposing rushing attacks in the second half of the season. If they can do so again in Week 17, it might be the difference in a game the team likely has to have to keep its division title hopes alive.
