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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs' 2024 X-Factors, Part 3: First-Down Success, Bucky Irving

Tampa Bay's offense can take a big step forward in 2024 if it is able to create a significantly better success rate on first downs, and rookie RB Bucky Irving could help the rushing game resurge if he hits the ground running.

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This week, we're highlighting some potential "X-Factors" that could determine just how successful the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in 2024. Yes, Baker Mayfield repeating or improving upon his outstanding performance in 2023 is key, and ranking ninth in turnover differential again would be extremely helpful. Those are the obvious things, and they are very important.

These X-Factors can be individual players taking on new roles or realizing a jump in production. They could be certain scenarios or game situations in which the team as a whole has to be competitive. They could be a certain position group on the depth chart that needs to step up. Here, Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix and I are trying to dig a little deeper. On Monday, I discussed the Bucs' stoutness in the red zone on defense, a big team strength in 2023, while Brianna looked at the team's historically good results against the run. On Tuesday, Brianna zeroed in on tight end Cade Otton and the chance he goes from "steady" to a top producer at his position while I tabbed new starting corner Zyon McCollum as they key to an improved secondary. Let's see what we've got today.

Scott's X-Factor No. 3: Offensive success rate on first downs.

Last season, Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers' offense converted 41.5% of their third-down attempts, which ranked 10th in the NFL. That proved important, because Tampa Bay was not nearly as successful on first downs. Without an above-average ability to convert third downs, even long ones, the Bucs' offense would have been stuck in neutral for much of the season.

It would be nice for Mayfield and company to maintain that third-down success rate, but that statistic can be fickle. Prior to last year, the Bucs had a 37.4% conversion rate in 2022, after peaking at 47.1% (a team record) in 2021. What the Buccaneers really need to do in 2024 to take their offense to another level is perform better on first downs, so they can face fewer third downs and make them more manageable when they do arrive.

On first downs in 2023, Tampa Bay's passing attack ranked 15th in the NFL in success rate* (46.2%), 15th in total Expected Points Added (0.9) and eighth in passer rating (97.7). On third downs, it ranked ninth in success rate (43.7%), seventh in total EPA (17.7) and 10th in passer rating (97.7). You're really not supposed to get better on third downs, given that opposing teams generally know that you are going to pass. Only 10 teams produced positive total EPA on third-down passing, with the Bucs joining essentially a list of the best aerial attacks in the league: Dallas, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Miami, L.A. Rams, Buffalo, Kansas City and Detroit.

So the Bucs went from a little bit better than average on first downs in the passing game to top 10 on third downs. The real issue was the rushing attack, which on first downs was last in the league in both success rate (24.2%) and yards per carry (3.2) and 28th in total EPA (-47.7). It did get better on third downs, with a 50.0% success rate (21st), 5.8 total EPA (11th) and yards per carry (5.4), but that's on a sample size of just 48 attempts. The Bucs are just fine when they decide to run it on third down, but they need to get much better on third downs. The league per-carry averages are 4.2 on first downs and 4.3 on third downs.

Fortunately, one of the most welcome sights of the Bucs' three-game preseason was a consistently strong rushing attack, with an athletic offensive line moving defenders off their spots and creating very visible rushing lanes, often leading to long cutback runs. Tampa Bay called 64 handoffs to running backs in those three games and 32 of them gained four-plus yards and/or scored a touchdown. That's a 50% success rate on all downs, and 17 of the runs that didn't get at least four yards did gain three.

Even better, the Bucs' rushing success rate on first downs was 56.1%, as they got four or more on 23 of 41 attempts. And 10 of the 18 that didn't succeed did at least gain three yards. The rushing attack almost completely avoided the disastrous first down runs that put an offense behind the sticks. Anything resembling that sort of ground-game performance in the regular season would likely lead to a very potent Buccaneer offense in 2024.

(* A play is considered a success if it gets at least four yards on first down, at least half of the necessary yards for a new first down on second down or gains a new first down third or fourth down.)

Brianna's X-Factor No. 3: Bucky Irving's Ability to complement Rachaad White in backfield.

Last season, the Bucs finished worst in the NFL in rushing yards and averaged 3.4 yards per tote. As Scott alluded to above, the lack of success on first down dictated the pace of games and the flow of drives, restricting the playbook at times. The Bucs were able to find productivity with Rachaad White on the perimeter via screens, sweeps and out of empty packages in 2023. White concluded the year just 10 yards away from hitting the 1,000-rushing yard milestone and in 2024, it will be a collective approach.

Bucky Irving, the Bucs' fourth-round pick (125th overall), will provide a change-of-pace to complement White out of the backfield and prolong durability throughout the course of a 17-game season. Irving was a two-year starter for Oregon and served as the lead back in their zone-read rushing attack. He surpassed the 1,000-yard rushing marker in each of his two seasons in Eugene after transferring from Minnesota. In addition, Irving averaged 6.5 yards a carry and brings an added jolt of electricity to the Bucs' ground game. Throughout the offseason, Irving showcased his outstanding contact balance, downhill charge, effective jump cuts and pass-catching ability.

The strides in the Bucs' retooled ground approach were evident in the preseason and throughout training camp, with visible cutback lanes. Tampa Bay's offensive line has been effective in firing off the line and climbing at the second level to extend lanes. Whether flowing behind the line moving laterally or shifting course to cut back inside, Irving has been a bright spot. If the Bucs' ground game continues on its current upward trajectory that fans have seen for the last month, opponents will be forced to allocate resources to the line of scrimmage to account for Irving and White in 2024. I would love to see a duo of rushers – White and Irving – reach the coveted, yet elusive, 1,000-yard pinnacle, but for the purposes of the X-Factor prompt, Bucky eclipsing 700 yards on the ground would be tangible evidence of a reimagined, productive run game. His performance will be critical in fortifying the team's diverse system on Sundays.

View the top photos of Tampa Bay's Preseason Week 3 matchup vs. the Miami Dolphins on Friday, August 23rd, 2024 in Raymond James Stadium.

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