The Dallas Cowboys are the No. 5 seed in the NFC playoffs and will travel to Tampa Bay to face the fourth-seeded Buccaneers on Monday, Jan. 16 at 8:15 p.m. ET, capping off NFL Super Wild Card Weekend. The matchup at Raymond James Stadium will be a rematch of the regular season opener, when the Buccaneers handed the Cowboys a 19-3 trouncing at AT&T Stadium. Leonard Fournette powered the Bucs' offense with 127 yards on the ground, Devin White spearheaded the defensive effort with two sacks and Antoine Winfield Jr. recorded an interception of Dak Prescott, who suffered a thumb injury that caused him to be sidelined for five games. Monday night's game will be an opportunity for Dallas to defeat its kryptonite: Tom Brady, who is 7-0 against "America's Team." Both teams will strive to stay alive in the coveted postseason tournament.
For the Cowboys, the regular season ended in the way it started … with a humbling performance. Every year, the mantra and desire in the regular-season finale for every NFL team is the same, "enter the playoffs playing your best football." Well, for the Cowboys, the opposite materialized. In an uninspiring performance, Dallas was dominated 26-6 by the Commanders in Week 18. Cowboys' quarterback Dak Prescott played three and a half quarters, while Washington started rookie Sam Howell, who made his NFL debut. In the club's worst game of the season, the Cowboys had 11 three-and-out drives en route to Prescott throwing his 15th interception of the season – extending his streak of seven consecutive games with at least one pick. Prescott finished with one of the worst games of his tenure, completing only 14 of 37 passes for 128 yards, one touchdown and one interception for a 45.8 passer rating. Dallas totaled one first down on its first six drives and an inability to achieve line movement led to a porous rushing attack. Without a running game and a leaky pass protection unit, Prescott was left running for his life on multiple occasions. Miscues and undisciplined play led to the team's demise in Landover, Maryland.
In addition, special teams became a nightmare for the club in Week 18, with a fumbled punt snap by Bryan Anger, a muffed punt bouncing off a facemask and into the hands of the Commanders and a missed extra point attempt by Brett Maher following the team's lone touchdown of the day. Defensively, the Cowboys allowed an opponent to rush for more than 150 yards for the sixth time during the season. Dan Quinn's unit did sack Howell three times and hit him four, with Dorance Armstrong, Micah Parsons, Osa Odighizuwa and Sam Williams serving as the beneficiaries.
Overall, the Cowboys had the NFL's seventh-ranked scoring defense through Week 17, boasting a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Micah Parsons (13.0 sacks, three forced fumbles). Under the tutelage of Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn, the Cowboys have led the league in takeaways in each of the previous two seasons, the first team to accomplish that accolade since the 1972-74 Steelers. Led by Micah Parsons, DeMarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, Leighton Vander Esch and Trevon Diggs, the unit thrives in Quinn's penetrating 3-4 system with hybrid sub-packages in nickel (the majority) to counter league trends.
The real worrisome matter for Dallas in facing Brady, who is undefeated against the Star and regarded as the greatest player of all time, is that they will have to do so with a depleted secondary. The Cowboys lost two of their top three corners for the season with injuries to both Anthony Brown (Achilles) and Jourdan Lewis (Lisfranc). The team has struggled to find a true No. 2 guy across from Trevon Diggs at left cornerback and the player who had been the most effective in the vacant role, rookie DaRon Bland (team-leading five interceptions), suffered a chest injury. As a result, the Cowboys have scrambled to try and fill the void by picking up their fourth-free agent corner, starting with Kendall Sheffield, then Mackensie Alexander (groin strain), next Trayvon Mullens and now veteran Xavier Rhodes.
Over the final five weeks of the regular season, the Cowboys gave up 21 pass plays of 20 yards or more, the most in the league during that span. One thing is certain, whoever occupies the role at left corner Monday night, Brady will attack relentlessly as the Commanders did with Terry McLaurin. The team's dip in pressure over the previous four games brought added pressure on the team's secondary. Over the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season, the Cowboys had a pressure percentage of 27.4%, averaged 7.5 quarterback hits per game and 4.0 sacks per game. Over the last four games, those numbers steadily decreased to 18.5% pressure percentage, an average of 4.0 quarterback hits per game and 0.8 sacks per game. In addition, down the stretch - most notably the Bears and Packers – opposing teams have had success against Dallas with a perimeter-based rushing attack, forcing the Cowboys' cornerbacks to make tackles in space. By hooking the Cowboys' defensive ends and getting push to the second level on linebackers, opposing offenses left Dallas' corners to navigate through traffic, often resulting in an inability to stop the opposition from winning on the edge off angled pursuits.
However, the expectation is that Dallas will get reinforcements back including Vander Esch (neck), Johnathan Hankins (pectoral), Tyler Biadasz (ankle) and (chest) available for practice leading into the Wild Card round. Their inclusion in the lineup will bolster the Cowboys on both sides of the football.
The matchup against the Commanders was an aberration. Before Sunday's spiraling against Washington, the Cowboys had manufactured a prolific offensive attack ranked first in points per game (35.1), first in third down percentage (56%) and third in red zone touchdown efficiency (78.0) since Prescott's return in Week Seven from injury. While Cooper Rush filled in for Prescott, the Cowboys won four out of the five games and found their identity running the football in the process. Many of the team's runs came behind Zack Martin and Terence Steele on the right side, with their athleticism and effectiveness on combo and reach blocks. Steele's promising season reached a premature end in Week 14 against the Texans after the starting right tackle suffered a torn ACL and MCL. In his absence, the Cowboys have not been able to reach the same level of efficiency on the ground without the stellar run blocker manning the right side. Regardless of injuries, the Cowboys bring one of the most explosive offenses to Tampa Bay, a unit that scored an average of 28.8 points per game through the first 17 weeks of the 2022 season, fueled by Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb.
The Cowboys have not reached the NFC Championship Game since 1995 and it has been 30 years since their last playoff road win, when Troy Aikman hit Alvin Harper at Candlestick Park for a memorable moment in the team's decorated history. On Monday night, the Cowboys will strive to bypass the Buccaneers and Tom Brady on their quest for another Lombardi Trophy.
Cowboys' Difference-Makers
On this week's compilation of headliners, many could have joined the Cowboys' difference-makers rundown, but this group stands out. These six could help swing the Wild Card matchup in favor of Dallas on Monday night:
Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard, the Cowboys' explosive rusher, eclipsed the 1,000-yard marker for the first time in his career this season. He has been the team's catalyst on the ground, bolstering Kellen Moore's arsenal. In elite company, Pollard is the third-highest graded running back this season (89.5) according to Pro Football Focus, behind Josh Jacobs and Nick Chubb. With a slashing running style, Pollard can get to the second level quickly. Pollard is electric with the ball in his hands, with the ability to absorb contact for additional yards. He possesses rare acceleration and is a dangerous option out of the backfield as a receiver on wheels, screens and jet sweep options. Pollard has had a breakout year for Dallas and has established himself as one of its greatest weapons. On Monday night, the Buccaneers will look to slow Pollard down and force the Cowboys to become one-dimensional.
Dak Prescott
Dak Prescott is the face of the Cowboys' franchise and the heart and soul behind the iconic Star. Since 2020, Prescott has the most team points per game of any starting quarterback with 32.1, ahead of both Buffalo's Josh Allen (29.3) and Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes (29.1). The signal-caller is adept at pace and operation, commanding the huddle. Prescott can extend plays using his legs and possesses a rare ability to thread the needle on off-scheduled plays. The mid-round draft pick plays with a chip on his shoulder and continues to defy odds. Despite throwing a career-high 15 interceptions in 2022, Prescott rallied the team to new heights upon his return to action following Week Seven, averaging 35.1 points per game though Week 17. As one of the highest-paid quarterbacks, Prescott will be out to prove he is one of the league's elite on Monday night in a pressure-packed performance at Raymond James Stadium.
Zack Martin
Zack Martin has entrenched his legacy in the NFL with future immortalization in Canton. A top-tier guard in the league, Martin is the anchor of the Dallas offensive line achieving both consistency and longevity. Fundamentally, Martin sets the standard of excellence. He is strong at the point of attack and is rarely out-leveraged in pass protection. Martin excels as a puller, creating seams for rushers with second-level blocking. The Cowboys purposefully scheme inside zone runs because that is where Martin resides. Since the Cowboys drafted Martin with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft, he has stacked an impressive resumé. For his contributions in 2022, Martin was selected to the Pro Bowl for the eighth time in his nine-year career and has been selected to seven All-Pro teams. Martin re-routes the league's top rushers in protecting the quarterback on passing downs and moves defensive linemen off the ball in the run game. With an extraordinary work ethic, Martin sits atop the hierarchy at the guard position.
CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb currently leads the Cowboys in receptions with 107 (tied for fifth in the NFL), receiving yards with 1,359 (sixth in the NFL) and receiving touchdowns with nine (tied for sixth in the NFL). With a stellar catch radius, ability to adjust to the ball in flight, body control and nuanced route-running, Lamb has cemented his role as the Cowboys' No. 1 receiver in 2022. He eludes tackles with savviness after the catch and the former Oklahoma product is effective both pre- and post-catch. As Prescott's go-to target, Lamb is a player that the Bucs will have to scheme for. Lamb has continued the illustrious tradition of the famed 88 jersey, molding his own legacy on turf. The gadget player can line up in multiple spots along the formation, both in the slot and out wide. Lamb is elusive in the open-field, is sudden in-and-out of breaks and is effective at finding soft spots in a zone. He consistently generates separation with precise footwork on routes and uses his frame to make contested catches. Lamb is a player the Bucs must account for on Monday night with his playmaking prowess.
Micah Parsons
Since the Cowboys drafted Micah Parsons with the 12th overall selection in the 2021 NFL Draft, he has taken the NFL world by storm. He was the only rookie to earn first-team All-Pro honors and the only rookie defender named to the Pro Bowl following his first-year campaign– a telling feat. Parsons concluded the 2021 season as the first-ever unanimous Defensive Rookie of the Year and finished second in voting for Defensive Player of the Year, behind T.J. Watt. In 2022, he continued his reign of terror on offenses around the NFL. The do-it-all phenom wreaks havoc lining up all over the Cowboys' front seven. Parsons is a disruptive force at the line of scrimmage, leading the Cowboys with 13.5 sacks this year (tied for seventh in the NFL). With relentless tenacity on every play, Parsons energizes Dan Quinn's defense. He is one of the most consistent defenders in the NFL in terms of collapsing the pocket and harassing opposing quarterbacks. Parsons wins on a dime, faster than arguably any defensive player in the league getting to the quarterback. His pass rush snaps are almost a 50/50 split between the left and right side and his snaps inside the box are almost even between left, middle, and right linebacker. What Parsons is doing in the NFL is unprecedented and may never be replicated. He is the centerpiece of Quinn's blitz/stunt packages to create mismatches and a player the Bucs will have to gameplan around. With sensational downhill range, Parsons closes on the quarterback in a hurry and utilizes vision/agility to dart through gaps in the line to generate constant pressure.
Leighton Vander Esch
After putting up a productive season after re-signing with the Cowboys on a one-year contract during the offseason' and perhaps his best since the sensational Pro Bowl rookie 2018 season, linebacker Leighton Vander Esch suffered a what was initially labeled a neck injury – a lingering issue for the Boise State product – in Week 15. The Cowboys avoided the worst-case scenario as an MRI revealed a right shoulder stinger, which would make Vander Esch miss time but was overall positive news. Vander Esch is expected to be back to full strength against Tampa Bay. He finished second on the team with 90 tackles and the Cowboys struggled without his commanding presence in the second level of the defense, specifically against the run. On many occasions, Anthony Barr filled the wrong gap, which led to chunk plays on the ground for opponents. Vander Esch owns a 70.8 player grade from Pro Football Focus, and his contributions allowed Micah Parsons to embrace an increased role as a pass rusher. He instincts in the middle of the field have allowed Vander Esch to live near the football. Vander Esch can turn and run in-phase with tight ends. Additionally, he is smooth whether running down a ball-carrier or backpedaling in coverage. He is natural in zone, showcasing fluidity in space and can redirect. Vander Esch has been a bright spot for the Cowboys' defense, thriving in Dan Quinn's hybrid system.
Strengths
Here are some ways in which the Cowboys excelled during the 2022-23 season:
- The Cowboys' defense led the NFL with takeaways in 2022 (33), with nine different players recording multiple takeaways (highest in the NFL).
- Tony Pollard set a career-high in rush yards in 2022, while Ezekiel Elliott set a career low. Tony Pollard finished with 193 carries for 1,007 rush yards (team lead) and 9 rushing touchdowns. Ezekiel Elliott accumulated 231 carries for 876 rush yards and 12 rush touchdowns (team high). The pair became the only running back tandem with 60-plus rush yards per game and 9-plus rush touchdowns in a season in NFL history.
- Micah Parsons recorded 6 games with at least 2.0 sacks in 2022 (most in NFL). Only Hall of Fame Reggie White (8 in 1987), Hall of Fame Chris Doleman (7 in 1989), Hall of Fame Bruce Smith (7 in 1990) and Rams' Aaron Donald (7 in 2018) had more such games in a single season. Parsons has 70 quarterback pressures in 2022 (3rd in the NFL, Next Gen Stats) - Behind the 49ers' Nick Bosa (73) and the Browns' Myles Garrett (72).
Weaknesses
Negative factors hindering the outcome of games for Dallas throughout the 2022-23 season, most notable:
- The Cowboys' defense has allowed 10 more points per game and registered 2.8 fewer sacks per game over their last 5 games (Weeks 14-18) than their first 12.
- The Cowboys suffered 4 of their 5 losses on the road during the regular season - At home: 8-1, 30.0 points per game, 19.7 points per game allowed and plus-nine in turnover differential. On the road: 4-4, 24.6 points per game, 20.6 points per game allowed and plus-one in turnover differential. Cowboys: 1-4 on grass fields in 2022 (11-1 on artificial fields).
- Prescott is the 13th quarterback in the Super Bowl era to lead (or tie for the lead) the NFL in interceptions in a season and have his team qualify for the playoffs. Prescott has the highest interception percentage (3.8) by a qualified quarterback to make the playoffs since Peyton Manning in 2015 (Manning: 5.1 interception percentage in 2015).
New Faces/Departures in 2022
Amidst the Odell Beckham Jr. speculation, the Cowboys signed a veteran wide receiver after all – it just was not the one many thought it would be. Dallas signed 10-year receiver T.Y. Hilton in mid-December to bolster the receiving corps. Hilton, the free-agent pickup, spent the first 10 seasons of his career with the Colts, but had been out of the league in 2022 prior to the signing.
A four-time Pro Bowler (2014-17), Hilton has been a versatile weapon when healthy. Hilton had five 1,000-yard seasons including 1,148 yards in 2016 for the Colts. His 9,691 career receiving yards rank third in Colts' history behind Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne. However, Hilton's numbers decreased over the previous few years, including last season when he caught just 23 passes for 331 yards and three touchdowns. Hilton joined a Cowboys' receiving group including CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup and Noah Brown. With one game left to play in the 2022 regular season slate, the Cowboys released veteran wide receiver James Washington, who played in just two games for Dallas this season. Washington, who signed a one-year deal with the club back in March was expected to fill a short-term void after the team traded Amari Cooper, but it never materialized this season, largely due to untimely injuries.
Washington was injured during offseason practices, spending most of the summer in a walking boot. On the first day of training camp practice, he suffered a foot injury that required surgery, promptly landing him on injured reserve. Washington did not make his debut until Dec. 11 against Houston and was targeted once, resulting in a dropped pass. The Cowboys needed offensive tackle depth after an injury sidelined eight-time Pro Bowler Tyron Smith and a week before the start of the 2022 regular season, Dallas signed nine-time Pro Bowl left tackle – albeit at 40 years old now – Jason Peters for depth.
Peters, who played 15 games for Chicago last season after 11 years with the Eagles, signed with Dallas to its practice squad as he began acclimating to a new team. In 17 seasons, Peters played 228 regular-season games with 218 starts, primarily at left tackle (played right tackle in 2004-06). His 11-year tenure with Philadelphia included a Super Bowl championship.