In 2023, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran for 88.8 yards per game and averaged 3.44 yards per carry. Both figures ranked dead last in the NFL that season. In 2024, the Buccaneers ran for 149.2 yards per game and averaged 5.25 yards per carry, ranking fourth and third in those two categories, respectively.
Now, there were some reasons to hope that Tampa Bay's ground game would be better last season after being the worst in the league the year before (and in 2022, for that matter). The new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, said immediately upon being hired that reviving the rushing attack was his top priority. The Bucs then drafted a road-grading center (Graham Barton) in the first round and a shifty, tackle-breaking back (Bucky Irving) in the fourth round. Tristan Wirfs would be in his second season at left tackle after successfully making the switch and Luke Goedeke would have a full season at right tackle under his belt. Cody Mauch had gained size and strength after his predictably up-and-down rookie season. The offensive line looked like it would be improved, and indeed it was.
That said, I can't imagine there were many football-knowers out there who were predicting that the Bucs' running game would make that big of a year-over-year leap from 2023 to 2024. It would have been a borderline crazy prognostication, given that the noted year-over-year improvement from 3.44 to 5.25 yards per carry – a jump of 1.81 yards – is the second largest increase by any NFL team since the data started being tracked in 1932. Only the 1946-47 Detroit Lions, who improved by 2.01 yards per carry, topped that.
Personally, if I had predicted that the Bucs would produce a top-five rushing attack in 2024, I would currently be reminding everyone of it on a weekly basis right now. So, with that in mind, Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix and I are going to take a swing at being in position to sing our own praises a year from now. As we wrap up our six-part series of Point-Counterpoint articles to start the 2025 offseason, we are each going to make one statistical prediction regarding the Buccaneers in the upcoming season. It doesn't have to be as unlikely as that 2023-24 ground game improvement, but it should be at least somewhat bold.
If you missed any of the rest of this Point-Counterpoint series, here is what we have discussed so far:
Tuesday, January 21: What was your most pleasant surprise regarding the Buccaneers' 2024 season?
Monday, January 27: Who is your most intriguing under-the-radar player on the 2025 roster?
Monday, February 3: What is the most pressing roster need the Bucs' need to address in the offseason?
Monday, February 10: If the Buccaneers were to make a big free agency splurge, who would you want?
Monday, February 17: What position would you like to see Tampa Bay target in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft?
Monday, February 24: Give us one specific statistical prediction for the Bucs' 2025 season?
We have been alternating pick order from week to week, since we are not allowed to make the same choices, and therefore going first could matter. As we wrap this up, I get to go first this week. Our predictions can either be about the team as a whole or an individual player accomplishment. Here we go:
Scott Smith: Calijah Kancey becomes the first Buccaneers IDL in a quarter-century to record a 10-sack season.
I will start by making the case that this is indeed a very bold prediction. The last time a Tampa Bay interior defensive lineman had a 10-sack season it was Warren Sapp in 2000, with 16.5. Warren Sapp, as you know, is in the Hall of Fame. Gerald McCoy was a very, very good interior pass rusher and he went to six Pro Bowls, but he never quite got to double digits in a single season, topping out at 9.5 in 2013. Ndamukong Suh will get Hall of Fame consideration, I believe, and he racked up 71.5 sacks in his 13-season career but only got to 10 once, in his rookie season.
Furthermore, of the 17 players who got to 10 sacks last season, only two were interior linemen, and if you could guess that one of them was Miami's Zach Sieler, you deserve a cookie. (The other was Seattle's Leonard Williams, who had 11.0.)
So, this just doesn't happen very often. Why do I think Calijah Kancey will reach that rare height in his third NFL season? Better injury fortune.
Each of Kancey's first two seasons since being drafted 19th overall in 2023 have been christened by a calf injury. As a rookie, he strained a calf early in training camp, made an abortive attempt to come back for the start of the season and then ultimately missed three games. He admitted feeling rusty for a while after returning to action and finished that season with 4.0 sacks. Last year, his calf injury happened in the very last practice before the start of the season, which was assuredly very frustrating, and he missed five games.
In the 12 games that Kancey did play, he racked up 7.5 sacks, leaving us to wonder if he would have already recorded that 10-sack season if he had played in five more games. If he had maintained the same sacks-per-game rate that got him to 7.5 for a full season, he would have finished with about 10.5.
I could base this prediction on that alone, then cross my fingers that he plays 17 games in 2025. But there are other reasons to believe his game is on a clear upward trajectory. His pressure rate improved to 10.5% in 2024 after he finished at 9.1% as a rookie. His time to pressure also made a big jump, going from 3.07 seconds on average in 2023 to 2.77 seconds last season. Simply put, he was getting to the quarterback significantly faster in his second season. His sack conversion rate (converting pressures into sacks) leapt all the way from 12.1% in 2023 to 20.3% in 2024. (All figures courtesy of NFL Next Gen Stats.)
I think Calijah Kancey is a player on the rise who has already proved that he can be among the league's elite in terms of getting pressure on the quarterback straight up the middle. I believe that if he's on the field for 17 games last season, he's going to join a very exclusive list in franchise history.
Brianna Dix: Buccaneers Boast NFL's Top-Ranked Offense for the First Time in Franchise History
Since you discussed the defensive side of the ball, Scott, it is only fair that I make a prediction regarding the offense. The Bucs fielded the third-ranked total offense in 2024, with the third-best passing unit and the NFL's fourth-ranked rushing attack. In 2024, Tampa Bay became the first team in NFL history to complete 70% of their passes and average over five yards per carry throughout the course of an entire season.
Additionally, the Bucs became the second team in NFL history to throw for 40-plus passing touchdowns and average over five yards per carry in the same season, joining the 1998 San Francisco 49ers. The unit sat amid the top-five in nearly every statistical category with Baker Mayfield at the helm.
Mayfield concluded the 2024 campaign establishing new career highs in completions (407), completion percentage (71.4%), passing yards (4,500), net yards per pass attempt (7.9), passing touchdowns (41) and passer rating (106.8). He cemented new Buccaneers single-season franchise records in completion percentage and passer rating.
Mayfield became the fourth player in NFL history to record a season with 4,000-plus passing yards, 40-plus touchdowns, and a 70-plus completion percentage, joining Drew Brees (2011), Joe Burrow (2024) and Aaron Rodgers (2020). In addition, Mayfield became the 10th player in NFL history to throw for 4,500-plus yards and 40-plus passing touchdowns in a single season, joining Tom Brady (3), Drew Brees (2), Joe Burrow, Andrew Luck, Patrick Mahomes (2), Peyton Manning (2), Dan Marino (2), Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford (2) in 2024.
The Bucs were among the upper echelon of offenses last season and in 2025, I predict that Tampa Bay will have the top-ranked offense in the NFL for the first time in franchise history. The club came close in 2021, coming in at second place. The team will have a new offensive coordinator in Josh Grizzard, but many of the concepts and much of verbiage will remain. Grizzard was promoted from pass game coordinator to OC, providing stability and continuity within the offense for 2025.
In order for the Bucs to achieve that coveted yet elusive feat in 2025, Baker Mayfield will need another MVP-caliber season. Coming off the best year of his career in 2024, that accolade is a probable outcome for the signal-caller in the Bay. Mayfield layered the football to all areas of the field with precision and showcased his improvisational skills, getting critical third-down conversions using his legs. With quick processing and off-platform throws that awed, he galvanized the unit.
The Bucs sensational numbers in 2024 were even more impressive considering the club had a laundry list of injuries, including ones to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. The team's offense is built around Evans, the deep threat, and Godwin, the YAC phenom. When both went down – an NFL team's worst nightmare - the coaching staff found ways to supplement their production on the gridiron, whether it was tight end Cade Otton running the choice, corner and wheel routes that Godwin traditionally does, or getting Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard involved downfield, Tampa Bay's offense continued to excel under Mayfield's leadership. All that and I have not even mentioned the prowess of rookie running back Bucky Irving, who resurrected the team's ground game. His lateral cuts, vision and short-area quickness rejuvenated the squad, sparking 'BUC-KY' chants in Raymond James Stadium. Irving almost never came down on first contact and his sensational rookie season engenders excitement for the encore in 2025.
This time around in 2025, the sky is the limit. A big reason for the team's confidence in contention in No. 6 and I concur. In 2025, the Buccaneers will be the top offensive powerhouse that defenses fear!
