Statistics can help illuminate the game of football…or they can take us down a misleading path. As Tampa Bay Buccaneers Head Coach Lovie Smith said: "I believe in stats, but it's [which] stats."
Smith, for instance, doesn't pay much attention to the NFL's defensive rankings, since they are based on yards, which he considers a meaningless measure. When he shares defensive stats with his team, he focuses on points allowed, takeaways, scoring on defense and red zone proficiency.
Here on Buccaneers.com, we unabashedly love stats, but we also understand the need to wield them wisely. Sometimes, we can get a better feel for why the team is performing as it is by going a little deeper into the numbers. Other times, we simply want to point out a few numbers we consider interesting, and hope you will find it interesting as well.
That's our goal with Football Geekery. Each week, we're going to give you a sampling of statistical and/or historical analysis, hopefully in a way that is relevant to the Buccaneers' current state of affairs. This week, noting that both Doug Martin and Charles Sims are on pace to surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage this year, we look at the history of such duos and what it has meant for their teams. We also share a surprising stat about the Buccaneers in overtime games on the road and look more closely at the team's recent domination in the turnover department. Let's get started.
1. Four-Digit Duo
The Buccaneers rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards per game and are close to cracking the top 10 in the overall offensive rankings in large part because they've gotten great production out of the running back tandem of Doug Martin and Charles Sims. Martin has three 100-yard rushing games already and is running with the power and moves that made him a Pro Bowler as a rookie in 2012. Sims, whose rookie season was largely washed out by an ankle injury, has emerged in his second season as the exact sort of backfield complement the Bucs thought he could be when they spent a third-round pick on him in 2014.
With 748 yards from scrimmage through seven games, Martin ranks sixth in the NFL in that category and is on pace to finish the season with 1,709. Sims has added 440 yards from scrimmage, split almost evenly down the middle between rushing and receiving, and that puts him on pace to get to 1,006 by season's end.
If Martin and Sims both surpass 1,000 yards from scrimmage, it would be the first time a Tampa Bay running back duo has done that since 1999. The "Thunder & Lightning" pairing of Mike Alstott (1,188) and Warrick Dunn (1,205) helped power that '99 Buccaneers team all the way to the NFC Championship Game. They are the only pair of Buccaneer running backs ever to accomplish that dual feat.
That's not terribly surprising, because the 1,000-yard double-dip may not be as common as you think. The only team to do it last season was Cincinnati, with the pairing of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. It's been 25 years since a Chicago Bears duo has done it, 30 since the San Francisco 49ers had such a combo. The Jets, Titans, Ravens, Eagles and Panthers have never had such a pairing, even though you can probably think of a some memorable running back duos in the history of each of those franchises.
From the 1970 AFL-NFL merger through last season, a period of 45 years, there were 60 teams that sported a pair of running backs that each cracked 1,000 yards from scrimmage. That's roughly one-and-a-third teams per season. It was far more common of an occurrence in the '70s, even though the league didn't go from a 14-game schedule to a 16-game schedule until 1978. There were 26 such duos in the 1970s, and another 17 in the 1980s, but only five in the 1990s. There were another six from 2000-09, and there have been another six during the first half of the current decade, which does indicate something of an uptick in frequency of the occurrence. Half of those pairings were during the 2013 season: Buffalo (Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller), Detroit (Reggie Bush and Joique Bell) and San Diego (Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead).
Here are all 60 of those 1,000-yard running back duos since the merger:
Season/Tm |
RB #1 |
Yards |
RB #2 |
Yards |
W |
L |
T |
PL |
1971 DET |
Steve Owens |
1385 |
Altie Taylor |
1006 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
|
1971 GB |
John Brockington |
1203 |
Donny Anderson |
1063 |
4 |
8 |
2 |
|
1971 MIA |
Larry Csonka |
1164 |
Jim Kiick |
1076 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
Y |
1971 SF |
Vic Washington |
1128 |
Ken Willard |
1057 |
9 |
5 |
0 |
Y |
1972 ATL |
Art Malone |
1383 |
Dave Hampton |
1239 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
|
1972 DAL |
Calvin Hill |
1400 |
Walt Garrison |
1174 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1972 GB |
John Brockington |
1270 |
MacArthur Lane |
1106 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1972 MIA |
Mercury Morris |
1168 |
Larry Csonka |
1165 |
14 |
0 |
0 |
Y |
1972 OAK |
Marv Hubbard |
1203 |
Charlie Smith |
1039 |
10 |
3 |
1 |
Y |
1972 SD |
Mike Garrett |
1276 |
Cid Edwards |
1236 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
|
1973 CIN |
Essex Johnson |
1353 |
Boobie Clark |
1335 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1973 DEN |
Floyd Little |
1402 |
Joe Dawkins |
1035 |
7 |
5 |
2 |
|
1973 LAN |
Lawrence McCutcheon |
1386 |
Jim Bertelsen |
1121 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
Y |
1973 MIA |
Larry Csonka |
1025 |
Mercury Morris |
1005 |
12 |
2 |
0 |
Y |
1974 NE |
Mack Herron |
1298 |
Sam Cunningham |
1025 |
7 |
7 |
0 |
|
1975 BUF |
O.J. Simpson |
2243 |
Jim Braxton |
1105 |
8 |
6 |
0 |
|
1975 STL |
Terry Metcalf |
1194 |
Jim Otis |
1145 |
11 |
3 |
0 |
Y |
1976 NE |
Sam Cunningham |
1123 |
Andy Johnson |
1042 |
11 |
3 |
0 |
Y |
1976 PIT |
Rocky Bleier |
1330 |
Franco Harris |
1279 |
10 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1976 SF |
Delvin Williams |
1486 |
Wilbur Jackson |
1116 |
8 |
6 |
0 |
|
1977 CLE |
Greg Pruitt |
1557 |
Cleo Miller |
1047 |
6 |
8 |
0 |
|
1978 CHI |
Walter Payton |
1875 |
Roland Harper |
1332 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
1978 DET |
Dexter Bussey |
1199 |
Horace King |
1056 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
1978 MIN |
Chuck Foreman |
1145 |
Rickey Young |
1121 |
8 |
7 |
1 |
Y |
1979 CIN |
Archie Griffin |
1105 |
Pete Johnson |
1019 |
4 |
12 |
0 |
|
1979 NO |
Chuck Muncie |
1506 |
Tony Galbreath |
1192 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
1980 ATL |
William Andrews |
1764 |
Lynn Cain |
1137 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1980 DET |
Billy Sims |
1924 |
Dexter Bussey |
1084 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
1980 GB |
Eddie Lee Ivery |
1312 |
Gerry Ellis |
1041 |
5 |
10 |
1 |
|
1981 BAL |
Curtis Dickey |
1198 |
Randy McMillan |
1063 |
2 |
14 |
0 |
|
1983 CHI |
Walter Payton |
2028 |
Matt Suhey |
1110 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
1983 DAL |
Tony Dorsett |
1608 |
Ron Springs |
1130 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1983 SF |
Roger Craig |
1152 |
Wendell Tyler |
1141 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
Y |
1983 WAS |
John Riggins |
1376 |
Joe Washington |
1226 |
14 |
2 |
0 |
Y |
1984 SF |
Wendell Tyler |
1492 |
Roger Craig |
1324 |
15 |
1 |
0 |
Y |
1985 CLE |
Earnest Byner |
1462 |
Kevin Mack |
1401 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
Y |
1985 NE |
Craig James |
1587 |
Tony Collins |
1206 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
Y |
1985 PIT |
Frank Pollard |
1241 |
Walter Abercrombie |
1060 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
1985 SF |
Roger Craig |
2066 |
Wendell Tyler |
1021 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
Y |
1986 DAL |
Herschel Walker |
1574 |
Tony Dorsett |
1015 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
1986 PIT |
Walter Abercrombie |
1272 |
Earnest Jackson |
1079 |
6 |
10 |
0 |
|
1988 CIN |
Ickey Woods |
1265 |
James Brooks |
1218 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
1988 SEA |
John L. Williams |
1528 |
Curt Warner |
1179 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
Y |
1990 CHI |
Neal Anderson |
1562 |
Brad Muster |
1116 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
Y |
1990 SEA |
John L. Williams |
1413 |
Derrick Fenner |
1002 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
|
1995 AZ |
Garrison Hearst |
1313 |
Larry Centers |
1216 |
4 |
12 |
0 |
|
1995 MIA |
Bernie Parmalee |
1223 |
Terry Kirby |
1032 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
Y |
1999 TB |
Warrick Dunn |
1205 |
Mike Alstott |
1188 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
Y |
2005 DEN |
Mike Anderson |
1226 |
Tatum Bell |
1025 |
13 |
3 |
0 |
Y |
2006 JAX |
Fred Taylor |
1388 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
1377 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
2007 JAX |
Fred Taylor |
1260 |
Maurice Jones-Drew |
1175 |
11 |
5 |
0 |
Y |
2007 MIN |
Adrian Peterson |
1609 |
Chester Taylor |
1125 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
2008 NYG |
Derrick Ward |
1409 |
Brandon Jacobs |
1125 |
12 |
4 |
0 |
Y |
2009 CAR |
DeAngelo Williams |
1369 |
Jonathan Stewart |
1272 |
8 |
8 |
0 |
|
2010 KC |
Jamaal Charles |
1935 |
Thomas Jones |
1018 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
Y |
2011 HOU |
Arian Foster |
1841 |
Ben Tate |
1040 |
10 |
6 |
0 |
Y |
2013 BUF |
Fred Jackson |
1277 |
C.J. Spiller |
1118 |
6 |
10 |
0 |
|
2013 DET |
Reggie Bush |
1512 |
Joique Bell |
1197 |
7 |
9 |
0 |
|
2013 SD |
Ryan Mathews |
1444 |
Danny Woodhead |
1034 |
9 |
7 |
0 |
Y |
2014 CIN |
Jeremy Hill |
1339 |
Giovani Bernard |
1029 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
Y |
The Bucs' recent run of five wins in seven overtime tries has brought the franchise back to .500 all-time in overtime play. In 33 overtime games, the Bucs are 16-16-1. That includes a 7-5-1 record at home and a 9-11 mark on the road.
3. Dominating TO Ratio
Photos of the Bucs vs. the Giants over the years.
The Buccaneers are essentially one late-game defensive stop in Washington from being on a three-game winning streak, having sandwiched that 31-30 defeat in Week Seven between wins over Jacksonville and Atlanta. The single most important factor in that run has been the turnover ratio.
Remarkably, the Buccaneers have taken the ball away seven times in the last three games while giving it away just once…and that lone turnover was a desperation pitch by Sims on the Bucs' final play from scrimmage in Washington. Even more remarkably, the Buccaneers have scored after every single one of those takeaways, while Sims' fumble was essentially the end of that game against the Redskins.
Overall, the Buccaneers have scored 41 points off turnovers in the last three games and allowed none. Neither one of those things is a common occurrence for the team. Here are the last times either one of those things has happened…
Scored 40 or more points off turnovers in a three game span: Sept. 14-28, 2008.
Photos from the Bucs' practice on Wednesday, November 4th, at One Buccaneer Place in Tampa.
During a three-game winning streak during the opening month of the '08 campaign, the Buccaneers dispatched of Atlanta by a 24-9 score in Week Two, won in overtime at Chicago by a 27-24 margin and took down the Packers in Tampa, 30-21. The team forced a total of eight turnovers over the course of those three weeks, turning five of them into touchdowns and two into field goals for a total of 41 points. Two of the five touchdowns were return scores by the defense.
That's almost identical to the Bucs' current streak, in which they've turned seven takeaways into five touchdowns, two on defensive returns, and two field goals. The only difference is an extra takeaway in 2008 that did not result in any points.
Allowed zero points off turnovers during a three-game stretch: Nov. 6-20, 2011
This was a home-and-away pair of games against the Saints with a visit from Chicago in the middle. The Bucs did not turn the ball over in either game against the Saints. They did suffer four giveaways against the Bears, but none of them resulted in points for Chicago (one was immediately followed by a scoring play, but to the Buccaneers' benefit since it was a safety when Ronde Barber tackled Matt Forte in the end zone).
This particular streak didn't work out as well, as the Buccaneers lost all three. And they made up for that scoreless streak by allowing 13 touchdowns and three field goals off turnovers in the next eight contests to close out the season.
Scored 40 or more points off turnovers AND allowed zero points off turnovers in the same three game span: Nov. 4-25, 2007
The Buccaneers were four and four at the midpoint of the 2007 season, but a four-game winning streak would follow to help them make a run to the NFC South division title. The first three games of that run were comprised of a 17-10 home win over Arizona, a 31-7 drubbing of Atlanta on the road and a 19-13 victory over Washington at Raymond James Stadium.
The Buccaneers' only two turnovers in that span were a pair of fumbles in Atlanta, but neither one resulted in points for the opposing team. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay's defense took the ball away from the Cardinals, Redskins and Falcons a combined 12 times and turned eight of them into scores. Specifically, they scored four touchdowns (one on a defensive return) and four field goals for a total of 40 points.