The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns employ a few players each who have put up dominating fantasy performances in the past. This season, however, all of those stars and high-round picks are struggling with the same issue when it comes to fantasy production: consistency.
For instance, Browns' RB Ben Tate showed signs of fantasy stardom over the last few seasons in relief of Arian Foster, but has yet to find a rhythm in 2014. In Week Five, he had his only 100-yard game of the season and followed that with a two touchdown performance against Pittsburgh. However, in his three other games played this season, he has combined for just 103 yards, one TD and 15 fantasy points.
WR Andrew Hawkins has been the most consistent of the receivers for the Browns in terms of targets and receptions, but has found the end zone only one time, which is crucial to being a fantasy-relevant receiver. With only eight receiving touchdowns for the entire team (three of them coming to 0.8%-owned Travis Benjamin) it is hard to consider Hawkins a must-start if you own him, simply because he's put up just one six-pointer all season.
The Buccaneers suffer the same issue, but with even bigger past firepower. WR Vincent Jackson has posted 1,000+ yards and at least seven touchdowns in each of his last five complete seasons, making him one of the most fantasy productive receivers in that span. This year, he's averaging 51 yards per game with two touchdowns, with only one 10+-point fantasy performance.
Consistency is an issue all over the board. Mike Evan's last five games have seen these fantasy point totals: 4, 5, 12, 11, 7. Louis Murphy followed up a 13-point game with a one-pointer. And with just two RB rushing touchdowns on the year for the Buccaneers, that position raises question marks in the eyes' of owners as well.
So, with a troubling lack of regularity in the back of our heads on both sides of the ball, who can we deem trustworthy enough to throw in our lineups this week? We know that points will be scored, but from where can we expect them to come?* For the Cleveland Browns
No skill position player for the Browns (or Bucs) ranks in the top 20 at his position. However, the Browns are still putting up 23.3 actual points per game this season, making it a constant game of, "Which player might find the end zone this week?" Fortunately for Browns' fantasy owners, the Buccaneers have been surrendering above-average fantasy points to all positions so far this year.
Get familiar with the key players on the Browns before the Buccaneers face off with Cleveland on Sunday.
QB Bryan Hoyer averages 13.1 points per game. While he has just two interceptions this year, he counters that with only eight touchdown passes in seven games. The Bucs have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, which has Hoyer's owners smiling (he is owned in 29.8% of leagues, having been picked up in 13.2% just this week, specifically as a bye-week fill in with a promising matchup). Dig a little deeper, however, and you will find that the NFL average in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs is 16.1 and that the Buccaneers have held three opposing quarterbacks (STL's Davis, NO's Brees and MIN's Bridgewater) under that average. The Bucs defense has given up their QB points in large chunks, and looking at Hoyer's eight TDs, it looks like a long shot for him to break 16.
The previously mentioned Ben Tate has scored three times in his last three games, but has just 62 yards on 31 carries over the last two weeks against the Oakland and Jacksonville defenses. He is the most-owned Brown and should be started Sunday considering the Bucs allow the ninth-most points to opposing RBs. Cleveland runs the ball on 49% of its plays so far this year and Tate has seen the lion's share of the touches. He is backed up by Terrence West and Isaiah Crowell who each have a few big games this season, but the duo has combined for just 19 fantasy points over the last four games and are anything but sure things.
The Bucs have given up the most fantasy points in the league to WRs, nearly 30 per game to go around. We talked about the sit/start frustration of Andrew Hawkins, but he should be played this week in all formats. The Bucs have given up 12 receiving TDs to opposing receivers, and according to Football Outsiders, 98 yards per game have gone to a team's #1 receiver. WR Miles Austin (another name with some previous fantasy glory) looked like he was on pace for a strong comeback season with 24 fantasy points over the first three weeks, but he has just nine receptions since. He and the other Cleveland WRs are longshots and shouldn't be started outside of deep leagues.
The Bucs have been burned by tight ends in the yardage category, but have only allowed two TDs to the position, with the lack of passing points in the Browns' offense and their number one tight end missing the game due to injury, I don't expect to see Jim Dray or Gary Barnidge gracing many lineups.* For the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns have been a stingy defense against quarterbacks this season. While they're allowing the 13th-most passing yards per game, their 10 touchdowns surrendered is the fourth-best. They have been under that NFL average 16.1 fantasy points allowed per game in six of their seven contests. Put up a fantasy average defense against a fantasy average quarterback, and on paper, you have a performance that might be a bit predictable. Mike Glennon has 15 fantasy points per game in his four starts. He's thrown a pick in each of those games, but has seven TD passes. Against this stout passing defense, don't expect him to break his season-high 18 fantasy points, but he should stay near that number, as he pretty much always does.
Pro Bowl DT Gerald McCoy will likely be lined up against a rookie quite a bit on Sunday, but Cleveland's Joel Bitonio happens to be one of the NFL's top-performing guards this season
Buccaneers Starting LT vs. OLB Paul KrugerUsual starter Anthony Collins is listed as doubtful for the game with a foot injury. Oniel Cousins or Kevin Pamphile could fill the spot. It would be rookie Pamphile's first career start, or the first start of the season for Oniel Cousins, who opened four games last year for Sunday's home team, the Browns. Whoever lines up to protect Glennon's blind side will likely see a lot of Browns' leading sack artist Paul Kruger, who has five QB takedowns on the season, including three last week in a win over the Oakland Raiders.
LB Lavonte David vs. RB Ben TateLavonte David leads the NFL in tackles per game, averaging nearly 11.5 in each contest and posting 14 tackles in each of his last three games. The Cleveland Browns average just 3.8 yards per rush (24th in the NFL) but run the ball on 49% of their snaps, the third highest percentage in the league. Because of their commitment to the run, they are 12th in the rushing yards, with nine TDs on the ground. Ben Tate leads the way with 84 carries for 305 yards in five games. Beyond the ground game, David and the Buccaneers have been solid in defending the pass against running backs, ranking 13th in the league in that category. The Browns have rarely thrown to their backs, who have just 14 combined receptions through seven games.
DT Gerald McCoy vs. G Joel BitonioMcCoy has picked up right where he left off last season, proving to be an absolute headache for opposing linemen and quarterbacks. According to Pro Football Focus, McCoy is the highest rated DT, with three sacks, seven QB hits and 12 hurries on the year. He should line up across from rookie guard Joel Bitonio who is having a fine season of his own so far as PFF's fourth-ranked guard, having allowed no sacks and just one QB hit. McCoy could also see help coming from Browns' center Nick McDonald, who is filling in for injured two-time Pro Bowler Alex Mack.
RB Bobby Rainey vs. MLB Karlos DansbyDoug Martin is also listed as doubtful for the game in Cleveland, which should mean significant playing time for Rainey. Rainey started at running back twice this season during Martin's previous injury and rushed for 185 yards while also catching 10 passes for 94 yards in those two games. He faces the rush defense giving up the third most yards per game in the league this season, led by Dansby who has registered 56 tackles, three sacks and an interception.
WRs Vincent Jackson & Mike Evans vs. CBs Buster Skrine & Joe HadenComing off a Pro Bowl 2013 season, Haden, has yet to register an interception in his seven games this season. Fellow starting cornerback Skrine has two INTs, but according to Pro Football Focus has allowed five touchdowns thrown in his direction. Jackson and Evans have 51 catches, 693 yards and four touchdowns between them. The Bucs have struggled over the last two weeks to get things moving through the air. QB Mike Glennon could try to establish a connection with both receivers early to build a rhythm and bring the passing game back to life.
CB Alterraun Verner vs. QB Brian HoyerHoyer has thrown just eight touchdowns on the season, but still boasts a 91.0 passer rating, thanks to 245 yards per game and only two interceptions, tied with Tom Brady for the fewest among quarterbacks with at least five starts. WR Andrew Hawkins, the Browns' leading receiver and likely the man lined up against Verner the most in this game, has been targeted 62 times this season, 28.3% of Hoyer's passes. Verner is looking for his second interception of the season and should see a lot of chances thrown his way, but by one of the leagues hardest-to-intercept quarterbacks.
The biggest Buccaneers fantasy news this week comes at running back where starting RB Doug Martin is listed as doubtful for tomorrow's game. Should he miss the game Bobby Rainey should see most of the work against a Browns defense ranked 25th vs RBs. Cleveland has allowed 119+ rushing yards in five of their games this year and at least 20 RB fantasy points in four of them. The Bucs in general have had issues on the ground, but Rainey does have the Bucs only 100-yard game, putting up 144 on 22 carries in his start against the Rams. He has sleeper potential this week and is a strong Flex option, especially on a week seeing six teams on bye. If Doug Martin can't go, Rainey should be plugged in your lineup.
Like the Bucs, Cleveland is at the bottom of the pack when it comes to yardage allowed to opposing #1 receivers, 81.8 yards per game. This could spell an end to Jackson's two-game fantasy drought. Jackson has just one game with more than four receptions and two games with more than 60 yards. According to the matchup, he should top those numbers in this game.
Mike Evans could be a solid bye-week contributor. He has at least four receptions in each game played. Last week was his best yardage output with 78. He also has two touchdowns on the season. The matchup looks good, but Evans's fantasy output is TD-dependent, meaning he's unlikely to post more than six points unless he crosses the goal line.
