The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the Washington Commanders on Sunday night in the Wild Card round of the 2024 NFC playoffs. The Buccaneers won the NFC South with a 10-7 record and earned the third seed in the conference and a home game to start the postseason. It is their fifth straight playoff appearance. The Commanders grabbed a Wild Card spot with a 12-5 record and are the sixth seed, making a remarkable turnaround from last year's 4-13 finish.
Who will have the upper hand when Washington's offense is on the field? Let's take a closer look.
Overall, Washington finished seventh in the NFL's yardage ranking with 369.6 yards per game and scored the fifth most points with 28.5 per game. The Buccaneers' defense allowed 341.8 yards per game (18th) and 22.6 points per game (16th). The Commanders ran the ball better than they threw it, ranking third in the former category and 17th in the latter, but that's largely because their excellent rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, was just as dangerous on the run as when throwing the ball. Daniels led the Commanders, in fact, with 891 rushing yards while also throwing 25 touchdown passes against nine interceptions for a passer rating of 100.1.
On paper, Washington's ground game against the Buccaneers' rush defense should be one of the best strength-on-strength matchups of the game. Washington averaged 154.1 rushing yards and 4.98 yards per carry (4th in the NFL). Tampa Bay allowed 97.8 rushing yards per game (4th) and 4.28 yards per carry (10th). In the last seven games of the season, after reemphasizing run defense during some bye week self-scouting, the Buccaneers have allowed a measly 58.7 rushing yards per game, lowest in the NFL in that span. Brian Robinson had a fine season, with 799 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, with 4.3 yards per carry, and Austin Ekeler was activated from injured reserve on Saturday, but the Bucs' defense should be a good match for the Washington running backs.
However, Daniels complicates matters. He had 584 yards on scrambles in the regular season, the most in the NFL and 167 more than potential MVP Lamar Jackson. He (and to a small extent Marcus Mariota) scrambled on 12.5% of their dropbacks, easily the highest average in the league. The league average scramble rate for teams was 5.5%. In his NFL debut in Tampa in Week One, Daniels ran 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
Expect the Buccaneers to be aggressive around the line of scrimmage. This season, the Bucs' defense created a loaded box (more defenders than blockers) on 57.1% of their snaps, which was the highest rate in the league. The Bucs' average number of defenders in the box was 7.16, the second-highest mark in the NFL. Washington's running backs struggled against such looks in 2024, with Robinson averaging 1.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes and Ekeler averaging 2.4.
Ideally, when Daniels does take off out of the pocket, Buccaneer defenders will at least be able to keep him from crossing the line of scrimmage. As dangerous as the rookie is on the run, he's done a lot more damage when he's given up on the pass and just taken off. When throwing on the run this season he was 32 of 56 for 449 yards, three touchdowns and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 78.6.
Washington restocked its offensive line during the offseason as part of an extensive roster overhaul. A third-round draft pick was used on TCU's Brandon Coleman, who took over as the left tackle in Week Five, and the team poached starting center Tyler Biadasz from the division-rival Cowboys. Nick Allegretti, a part-time starter in Kansas City for five years, came onboard and has started every game at left guard. Washington allowed a sack rate of 9.52% to rank 26th in the league, but it's fair to wonder if the wandering tendencies of their rookie quarterback contributed to that.
The Buccaneers' defense was in the middle of the NFL pack in sack rate, ranking 16th with a mark of 7.30%. The team did not have a double-digit sack producer – interior defensive lineman Calijah Kancey led the way with 7.5 – but it sought to bring pressure in waves. Six different Buccaneer defenders had at least four sacks in the regular season, tied for the most for any team in 2024. Nose tackle Vita Vea made the Pro Bowl and finished with a career-high 7.0 sacks. Outside linebacker Yaya Diaby topped out at 4.5 sacks but had a team-leading 20 quarterback hits and 56 quarterback pressures.
The Buccaneers also continued to blitz at a high rate, as they have done throughout Todd Bowles' six-year tenure as the play-caller. This year, Bowles dialed up the aggressiveness down the stretch; the Bucs blitzed on 35.3% of opposing dropbacks through the first 10 games but, after the Week 11 bye, blitzed on 48.6% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL in that span.
While Tampa Bay's blitz rate might have been lower in the first half of the season, that wasn't the case in Week One against Washington and Daniels. The Buccaneers blitzed the rookie on 47.1% of his dropbacks and it was an effective strategy as he was just five of nine for 45 yards with two sacks on those plays. However, handling the blitz has not been a problem overall for the young passer, and he can be expected to handle it better in the rematch. On the season, he is sixth in the NFL against the blitz in passing yards (1,282) and seventh in touchdown passes (12). He has only thrown one interception while being blitzed.
The Buccaneers have relied on zone coverage at a very high rate in 2024, perhaps because a litany of injuries have led to a revolving door in the secondary. That group could be getting some reinforcements this week, however, as All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. could return from a four-game absence due to a knee injury. In addition, starting cornerback Jamel Dean could be back in play after missing a game and a half with a knee issue, and veteran reserve Troy Hill has a chance to be activated from injured reserve.
Washington's biggest weapon in the passing game is sixth-year wideout Terry McLaurin, who may have had his best season yet in 2024. McLaurin hauled in 82 passes for 1,096 yards and a career-high 13 touchdowns and averaged 13.4 yards per grab. He was the only Washington pass-catcher to average 13 or more yards per reception. McLaurin is a great asset for a rookie quarterback trying to assimilate to the league because he can make plays in traffic and with defenders all over him. McLaurin led the NFL on tight-window throws (less than a yard of separation from the nearest defender) in catches (19), yards (244) and touchdowns (seven).
Daniels has also benefited from the team's offseason addition of a rejuvenated Zach Ertz, who emerged as the team's starting tight end even after it used a second-round draft pick on Ben Sinnott. Ertz caught 66 passes and scored seven touchdowns, including the one in overtime in Week 17 against Atlanta that propelled the Buccaneers into first place in the NFC South. Tampa Bay's defense, which gave up 122 yards to Saints tight ends last Sunday, has had some trouble with that position in 2014. The Bucs allowed an average of 67.3 receiving yards per game to tight ends; only the Chiefs, at 70.1, gave up more.
The poise displayed by Daniels in big moments has helped the Commanders excel in two specific game situations that often decide games. Washington is sixth in both third-down conversion rate (45.6%) and red zone touchdown percentage (63.4%). Tmapa Bay's defense is roughly middle of the pack in both of those categories.
Finally, Washington has done a pretty good job of protecting the football on offense. Their 16 giveaways come out to less than one per game and are tied for the eighth fewest in the league this year. Though he has thrown nine picks, Daniels has not lost a fumble all season. The Buccaneers' defense, well impressively stingy during the team's 6-1 season-ending run, did not force a lot of turnovers. The 11 fumble recoveries did rank sixth in the league but the team only secured seven interceptions. The Bucs had just six takeaways in their last seven games, and none in the final three.
