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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

A Career Year? | S.S. Mailbag

This week, Buccaneers fans have questions about Baker Mayfield's best season, Rachaad White's continuing production, fantasy football, roster health and more

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The fan voting portion of the NFL's Pro Bowl selection process has been underway since November 27 but it will end on Christmas Day, meaning there are only four days left to make your voice heard. I'm bringing this up in my mailbag intro solely as an excuse to share the link to cast your votes. I set up that specific link to give you a little hint of someone for whom you absolutely should vote, but you can use the pulldown menu in the upper right to see all the options at each position.

Okay, so now that I've dropped my shameless plug, I guess we can just enjoy some random Buccaneers-related Pro Bowl facts. Such as:

- Hall of Fame linebacker Derrick Brooks was named the MVP of the Pro Bowl after the 2005 season (before they started naming Offensive and Defensive MVPs in 2013). At the time, he was the first defensive player to take sole possession of Pro Bowl MVP honors in 16 years, since Rams safety Jerry Gray did so after the 1989 season. His big moment in the game was a 59-yard pick-six that gave the NFC a 17-10 lead in the third quarter, in a game they would go on to win, 23-17.

- Brooks also returned another interception 20 yards for a touchdown in the Pro Bowl following the 1999 season, helping the NFC to a ridiculous 51-31 victory. He and former Patriots and Jets cornerback Ty Law are the only two players in Pro Bowl history to record two pick-sixes.

- Brooks has the most Pro Bowl appearances of any Buccaneer, with 11, as he went every year from 1997 to 2006 and then again in 2008. That's tied for the 16th most Pro Bowl selections in league history. Tom Brady holds the record with 15 selections.

- Defensive end Lee Roy Selmon, the Buccaneers' first Hall of Famer, also won a share of the MVP award in the Pro Bowl after the 1981 season, sharing it with Chargers tight end Kellen Winslow. Selmon's NFC squad lost, 16-13, but Selmon had four sacks.

- Fullback Mike Alstott set a still-standing Pro Bowl record in the all-star game after the 2000 season by scoring three rushing touchdowns. That's only one rushing touchdown shy of the career Pro Bowl record, which former Vikings star Adrian Peterson holds.

- Alstott went to six Pro Bowls, the most in Bucs history by an offensive player. Mike Evans could catch him, as he has four Pro Bowl selections and seems like a strong choice for this year's game (or games, such as it is).

- The most players the Bucs have had selected for a Pro Bowl in any season is nine, which they've done twice. The first time was after the 2000 season, when Alstott, Brooks, cornerback Donnie Abraham, center Jeff Christy, running back Warrick Dunn, kicker Martin Gramatica, safety John Lynch, guard Randall McDaniel and defensive tackle Warren Sapp all made it. That feat was matched by the 2021 team, whose nine selections were Brady, Evans, outside linebacker Shaquil Barrett, center Ryan Jensen, guard Ali Marpet, defensive tackle Vita Vea, linebacker Devin White, safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and tackle Tristan Wirfs were all named all-stars.

- Ironically, before that huge Pro Bowl haul in 2021, the Buccaneers only sent one player to the Pro Bowl in 2020, that being outside linebacker Jason Pierre-Paul. You may recall that 2020 team winning the Super Bowl. That matched the 2007 Giants for the fewest Pro Bowl selections for a team that went on to win the Super Bowl.

- After breaking the franchise's 15-year playoff drought in 1997, that Buccaneers team sent eight players to the Pro Bowl (Alstott, Brooks, Dunn, Lynch, Sapp, quarterback Trent Dilfer, center Tony Mayberry and linebacker Hardy Nickerson). That exceeded by one the total number of Pro Bowl selections Tampa Bay had had over the previous 13 seasons combined. It matched the number of different Buccaneers players who made the Pro Bowl over the previous 16 seasons combined.

Okay, enough about the Pro Bowl. Let's refocus on the games that matter right now. On to your questions.

A reminder that you can send questions to me any time you want on Twitter (@ScottSBucs) and they're easier to find if you include the hashtag #SSMailbagBucs. We are also now soliciting questions each week on our Instagram page; look for that story on Wednesdays. As always, if you want to get a longer question into the mailbag and would prefer to email your question, you can do so to tbbsocial@buccaneers.nfl.com.

Is this the best Baker has looked in his career?

- @marcuspierre__ (via Instagram)

In the end, Marcus, I think that's going to be defined by whether or not the Buccaneers make the playoffs, and what they accomplish when they get there if they do. I'm willing to be that's how Mayfield would judge it. Right now, we'd probably still have to consider his best season so far to be 2020, when the led the Browns to an 11-5 record and then threw three touchdown passes in a 48-37 drubbing of the Steelers in the first round of the playoffs.

Statistically, though, it's going to be close, again in comparison to that 2020 campaign, and it's going to hinge on what he does over the next three games. Here's Mayfield's stat line from 2020, when he started all 16 games:

- 305 completions in 486 attempts (62.8%) for 3,563 yards, 26 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a career best passer rating of 95.9

Here's Mayfield's line through 14 starts this season:

- 296 completions in 466 attempts (63.5%) for 3,315 yards, 24 touchdowns, eight interceptions and a passer rating of 94.7

So the 2020 campaign was superior, statistically, in terms of passer rating, yards per attempt (7.3 to 7.1), touchdown percentage (5.3 to 5.2) and interception percentage (1.6 to 1.7), but all of those are awfully close. The 2023 season (so far) has been superior in completion percentage and yards per game (236.8 to 222.7), but again it's close.

And, as I noted, there are still three games to go. In terms of counting statistics, it seems likely that Mayfield will end up with more touchdown passes this year than he did in 2020. That said, since he's already matched his interception total from 2020 in 2023, we have to be realistic and figure he'll probably have more of those this season. Maybe, maybe not. He hasn't thrown a pick in the last two games.

So if we ask this question again three weeks from now, I think it's probably going to be very close between those two seasons. And you know what? That's awesome! When Tampa Bay signed Mayfield to rather mixed reviews from the national media this offseason, I made the argument that the Bucs could reasonably expect to get playoff-caliber football from Mayfield because we've seen it before. He has already played at that level for one entire season; why was it crazy to think he couldn't do it again. Given that the general assessment of the Bucs' chances in 2023 – they were given a projected wins total of six by the oddsmakers – was based on the idea that they still had a talented roster and a defense that could play very well but they didn't have the quarterback to get It done. So I said, what if the Bucs do have that quarterback? If Mayfield plays like he did just three years ago, doesn't that mean the team overall has what it takes to be playoff contenders?

And that's what has happened. Don't get me wrong, I know that a 7-7 record is anything to crow about, and there have been ups and downs, but the Bucs are undeniably legitimate playoff contenders. And if they win out, which is certainly possible the way they are playing right now, they would have a perfectly respectable 10-7 record.

Are y'all going to keep feeding Rachaad?

- @Iaw_rozay (via Instagram)

It would seem kind of silly not to, right?

I think it took Rachaad White and Offensive Coordinator Dave Canales a little while to figure out all the best ways to use the second-year running back, the types of running plays he does best, the routes he runs well. Now they seem to have found that sweet spot and, on a week to week basis, White has become one of the most productive backs in the league. Now that White and Canales – and an improving offensive line – are in that groove, I assume they will stick with it.

Here's what Canales had to say on the situation on Thursday:

"For me, it's about becoming who our guys are. Rachaad has taught us a lot about who he is in the run game, who he is in the pass game. He's just a really reliable target. He's a weapon, he really is. His body control to the catch – that's a big one there. Of course, you talked about his hands. His consistent production…I know we didn't have the rush yards for him earlier in the season, but as we've gotten the run game going, then he always throws in his 50+ yards of receiving on it. It really does put him in the top echelon of backs as far as being that multi-faceted, multi-purpose back."

If you're a fantasy football player (more on that in a minute) and you have any stake in White, you know what I mean. He's the best kind of fantasy back because, one way or another, he gets it done for you, particularly in the second half of the season. In his last nine games, White has surpassed 100 yards from scrimmage six times, and two other times he hit 99 and 98. He had a game this year in which he had 39 rushing yards and 70 receiving yards. He had another one in which he ran for 102 and added 33 receiving yards. One way or another. And he has scored seven times in the last seven games, with only one game in which he did not find the end zone.

White is also one of the few backs in the league who you can count on to get the lion's share of the backfield touches. He has accounted for 76% of the handoffs to running backs for the Bucs and 76% of the targets. And there's no reason to stop throwing it to him because he has been both productive and remarkably efficient in that part of the game. His 50 receptions have come on just 55 targets. If anything, the Bucs might start throwing it to him more.

Since White got hot in Week Seven, there has only been one player in the entire NFL who has produced more yards from scrimmage than his 973. That would be the 49ers' superstar back, Christian McCaffrey, with 1,071. So, yeah, I think the Bucs will continue to "feed" him.

Please help me, I am in my fantasy playoffs and have Rachaad, Mike, and Chris—how do you see each of them doing this week?

- @g_crews22 (via Instagram)

Like I said just above, if you have Rachaad White on your fantasy team this year, you are a happy manager. You're probably in the playoffs, like this Bucs fan, who really played the homer in his or her draft. White has been great, Mike Evans has probably out-produced his draft slot by a wide margin, and even Chris Godwin is getting hot just in time for the playoffs.

Based on everything I wrote above, you absolutely have to have White in your starting lineup, and you're almost sure to be rewarded. In full PPR leagues, he has averaged 17.3 points per game over the last nine weeks. The Bucs are playing the Jaguars, who have a pretty decent run defense but White could hurt their 29th-ranked pass defense. In fantasy terms, the Jaguars are tied for the 11th-best defense against running backs, at 13.86 points allowed per game, so that's not great, but again, you should still feel confidence in White.

Now, the good news is that the Jaguars defense ranks 23rd in points allowed to receivers. The hard part here is that you may have trouble trusting both Evans and Godwin to score big in the same game, since they haven't done that often this year. Last week was a very nice exception, with Godwin catching 10 passes for 155 yards and Evans grabbing five for 57 yards and a touchdown. Maybe this is the start of a new trend as the offense as a whole figures things out, but I don't think we can assume that until we've had a few more games of evidence.

If you're just asking how I think each guy will do and you're starting both of them regardless, I'd say you should feel cautiously optimistic based on the Jaguars' defensive numbers. However, if you're trying to decide between the two of them which one to start, the safer bet has to be Mike Evans. Godwin's big fantasy day in Green Bay was due to volume, but he was not one of four players who caught a touchdown pass. Evans was, and he is now second in the league in touchdown receptions behind Tyreek Hill. If you were betting which Buc was going to catch a touchdown pass in Sunday's game, you would probably go with Evans.

What is our all time record vs the Jags

- @dan_the_freaking_man _ (via Instagram)

The Jaguars lead the series, 4-3, but the Bucs are 2-1 against them in Tampa. If you want more details on the all-time series and a bunch of other information about this Sunday's contest, check out my Game Preview article.

If we lose to the Saints does winning this game even matter?

- @kendallh815 (via Instagram)

Oh, definitely, there are various scenarios involving the Buccaneers losing their Week 17 game against New Orleans but winning the other two to finish 9-8 and still win the division or grab a Wild Card berth. There is even a scenario in which the Bucs lose two of their last three and still win the division, but it requires a lot of things to break the right way and it's not worth worrying about that yet.

Here's one simple scenario: The Buccaneers beat the Jaguars and the Saints lose to the Rams this week. (I'm writing this on Thursday before the Saints-Rams game, so this may be moot by the time you're reading it.) Let's say Atlanta also wins against Indianapolis to keep from being too greedy. That would the Bucs at 8-7, the Saints at 7-8 and the Falcons at 7-8. Then the Saints beat the Bucs in Week 17 so both of those two teams are back to 8-8. Atlanta plays at Chicago, and for this scenario let's say they lose to fall to 7-8. That would leave one week left and the Bucs could win outright if they beat the last-place Panthers and the Saints lose to the Falcons. Even if the Bucs and Saints end up tied at 9-8, Tampa Bay would end up with the tiebreaker based on a better record in common games.

So, yes, this game against the Jaguars matters. A lot. All of them do.

Are we one of the healthiest teams in the league right now?

- @bigg_jerm_ (via Instagram)

That's a little bit of a subjective question and I won't claim I have my finger on the pulse of all 32 teams when it comes to their roster health. For just this week's matchup with the Jaguars I would say the Bucs are in a more fortunate position in terms of health simply because there's a good chance quarterback Trevor Lawrence won't play and wide receiver Christian Kirk is on injured reserve.

In fact, when it comes to quarterbacks, I would say the Bucs are better off on their injury report than the Bengals, Browns, Colts, Chargers, Vikings, Giants, Jets and Steelers simply because their opening-day starter isn't out for the season. C.J. Stroud may miss another game for the Texans and Kenny Pickett is out again for the Steelers this week.

Also, the Buccaneers only have four players on injured reserve and one of them, rookie wideout Rakim Jarrett is practicing with the team and could return to the roster at any time. None of the other three were opening day starters, though center Ryan Jensen would have been if he had made it back from his knee injury and wide receiver Russell Gage would probably be the primary third receiver. According to Spotrac, only the Rams (3) and the Bears (2) have fewer players on injured reserve. The league average is 9.5. The Texans have 17 players on I.R.; the Panthers and Cardinals have 15 each.

Also, every player on the 53-man roster is practicing this week, and all but Godwin (rest day) and defensive lineman Will Gholston were not full participants on Thursday. I don't have the full league injury report for Thursday as of this writing, but I scrolled through Wednesday's report and there wasn't a single other team that had an empty line under the "DID NOT PARTICIPATE IN PRACTICE" header. (The Dolphins, Cowboys and Seahawks hadn't practiced yet but I know Miami has a lot of injury issues right now.)

So, yes, it sure seems like the Bucs' health is trending in the right direction right now, especially when compared to a lot of other teams. Knock on wood.

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