Lovie Smith and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers coaches and players will spend one more week focusing on the 2014 season, with the goal to go out strong with a win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.

Smith and company won't turn their attention to matters of 2015 until next week, but what occurs on the final Sunday of this season will have an effect on one of the most significant matters of the upcoming offseason: the order for the 2015 NFL draft.

We know the Buccaneers will be slotted very high in that order; let's take a look at the potential scenarios for how the top five picks will play out.

Important note: Draft order is determined by just one factor: the teams' win-loss records the previous year. Obviously, that will lead to some ties in the order, and only one other factor is used to break those ties: strength of schedule (SOS). SOS is determined by adding up the wins and losses for all of a given team's opponents that year and calculating the combined winning percentage. Among tied teams, the club with the lowest SOS picks earlier, under the reasoning that, say, a 4-12 record against a weaker schedule indicates a worse team than a 4-12 record against a stronger schedule. Any ties that remain after that tiebreaker is implemented are determined by a coin flip later in the spring.

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The Buccaneers will be on the clock not long after the 2015 NFL Draft begins

SCENARIO #1: BUCS LOSE IN WEEK 17 AND PICK 1ST OVERALL

How this can happen: The Bucs lose to New Orleans in Week 17.

Yes, it's as simple as that, though there's a scenario in which the Titans get achingly close.

If the Buccaneers lose and the Titans win at home against Indianapolis, then it's simple, as Tampa Bay would have the league's worst record at 2-14. While projecting the 2-13 Titans to beat the 10-5 Colts might seem like a stretch, it's possible that Indy will choose to rest some of their starters. They have already won the NFC South and cannot win a first-round bye, so the only issue at stake is whether they finish with the third or fourth seed. Either way, they'll be playing at home during the first round of the payoffs.

If both the Buccaneers and Titans lose, they would be tied at 2-14, and then strength of schedule would come into play. This is where it become a little more complicated, though the paring down of the remaining NFL schedule to one week helps quite a bit. Even more so, the fact that every team plays an intra-division opponent in Week 17 reduces the number of possible outcomes (more on that below).

After 15 weeks, the Buccaneers have a worse SOS than Tennessee. Here are the combined records of the opponents for each team and the winning percentage it produces (note that the Cincinnati-Denver Monday Night game is not included, but it is irrelevant as both the Bucs and Titans played Cincinnati but did not play Denver):

Team	W	L	T	SOS
Tampa Bay	114	122	3	.483
Tennessee	118	120	1	.496

When calculating the winning percentage from win-loss-tie numbers, always count a tie as a half-win.  So, to make this a little simpler to understand, let's convert two of those ties in the Bucs row into one win. Then you have this matchup of SOS numbers:

Team	W	L	T	SOS
Tampa Bay	115	122	1	.483
Tennessee	118	120	1	.496

Why make that change? Because it will make what follows a little easier to understand. Basically, when trying to figure out if the Titans could "catch" the Buccaneers in SOS next week, you need to see if they can close the gap in that Wins column. In the end, both teams SOS lines will have a total of 256 games; that's the denominator in the eventual division problem. If Tennessee's combined opponents cannot finish the season with more wins (remembering that two ties equals one win) than the Buccaneers, the Titans cannot finish with a worse SOS.

That's why the fact that every team plays an opponent within its own division in Week 17 is important. For the Buccaneers and Titans, any game in which both teams are on their list of opponents this week is irrelevant. Such a game will produce one more win for the Bucs or Titans SOS total (or, conceivably, two ties, which would equally one win). For the Buccaneers, any game next week between two division mates in the NFC South, NFC North or AFC North will be irrelevant. For the Titans, any game between two division mates in the AFC South, AFC North or NFC East will be irrelevant.

That leaves only two games each for the Buccaneers and Titans that can make a difference. For the Bucs, that's Dallas at Washington and St. Louis at Seattle. For the Titans it's San Diego at Kansas City and the New York Jets at Miami. The best-case scenario for the Titans is that Washington and St. Louis win while Kansas City and the Jets lose. That would two wins to the Buccaneers' final total and none to the Titans' final total.

Two wins. That's the key. If all that happens, here's what the final SOS comparison will look like (for the first chart, we're assuming a Denver win on Monday night:

Team	W	L	T	SOS
Tampa Bay	124	129	3	.490
Tennessee	126	129	1	.494

If Cincinnati beats Denver but the rest of that scenario plays out in the best possible way for Tennessee, the final SOS comparison would be:

Team	W	L	T	SOS
Tampa Bay	125	128	3	.494
Tennessee	127	128	1	.498

There simply is no way for the Titans' strength of schedule to end up worse than that of the Buccaneers, so a loss by Tampa Bay in Week 17 would be disappointing for a team trying to end the season on a strong note but it would also lock up the #1 overall pick for Tampa Bay for the first time since 1987.

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SCENARIO #2: BUCS WIN IN WEEK 17 AND PICK 1ST OVERALL

How this can happen: The Titans also win in Week 17, against Indianapolis.

There is really very little difference in this scenario and the one above except that, in this case, the Buccaneers would need the Titans to also win in their season-capper against the Colts. Again, Indy's lineup decisions based on what they have still to gain could play a role in this.

The tiebreaker issues between the Bucs and Titans would not change in this scenario. However, it would bring the three 3-12 teams into play. Those three are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who play at Houston in Week 17; the New York Jets, who play at Miami; and the Oakland Raiders, who play at Denver. All three of those teams will likely be considered underdogs, which means this scenario has a chance to produce a five-way tie for the worst record in the league.

Still, that doesn't change the math for the Buccaneers. The current SOS marks for the Jaguars, Jets and Raiders is too strong to come down to where the Bucs' number is in just week, especially considering the way Week 17 is structured. The Jaguars (.521 SOS), Jets (.556) and Raiders (.576) are already out of the running for that top pick.

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SCENARIO #3: BUCS WIN IN WEEK 17 AND PICK 2ND OVERALL

How this can happen: Titans lose to Indianapolis.

This is even simpler. If Tampa Bay beats the Saints and the Titans lose to Indianapolis, Tennessee will get the first overall pick thanks to the league's worst record. The Buccaneers would still pick second based on the SOS tiebreaker against any of the other potential 3-13 squads.