This week, the last one before the start of the regular season, we are taking a look at some "X-Factors" that could swing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 2024 fortunes one way or another. These are not the top-line considerations, such as the continued strong play of Baker Mayfield or the ability to create turnovers on defense. These are less obvious elements of the Bucs' current situation, such as a young player stepping into a bigger role, an underlying statistic that needs to be achieved, a particular unit that has a lingering question mark, and the like.
On Monday, I pointed to the Bucs' defensive red zone touchdown efficiency which may need to be as good as it was last year for the team to limit some of the best offenses in the NFL, and Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix pointed to a stingy run defense. Today, we've got two more X-Factors to highlight, and Bri is going first.
Brianna's X-Factor No. 2: Cade Otton hits the 750-plus receiving yard marker
I actually spoke this into existence in a conversation a few days ago and I am sticking to my conviction. I predict that tight end Cade Otton will accumulate at least 750 receiving yards in 2024. This offseason, Otton had arguably the best camp of any Buccaneer, routinely finding ways to get open whether lined up wide in a 3-by-one set or out of the slot. Last season, Otton played 97% of the team's snaps (1,194) and finished the 2023 campaign with 455 yards on 47 receptions. As the Bucs' primary 'Y' tight end, Otton does it all.
With a reimagined run game with diverse schemes and an increase in misdirection/pre-snap motion to keep defenses at bay, Otton will play a key role in not providing a defensive tell when he is on the field, blocking in-line and flexing out to catch passes. Whether using his frame to box out defenders over the middle of the field or finding a soft spot in coverage, Otton is adept at showing up in critical moments. Named 'Steady Eddie' by the coaching staff for his consistency – amongst other superlatives - Otton certainly proved his worth throughout the offseason workout program. Liam Coen utilized a heavy dose of multiple tight end sets throughout camp and Otton is primed for a breakout year in 2024. It is clear he will play a significant role in the Bucs' 2024 offense. With defenses allocating resources to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Otton provides a safety net for Mayfield. The quarterback knows Otton will be at the right depth and that the large target will move the chains. He can impose his will at all three levels of the field and can adjust to catches without breaking stride. Scott, who is your X-Factor today?
Scott's X-Factor No. 2: Zyon McCollum holds down the outside corner spot as well as Todd Bowles expects.
Head Coach Todd Bowles is probably Zyon McCollum's biggest fan. The third-year cornerback is slated to be a Week One starter for the first time, and Bowles' confidence in him is what allowed the team to pull the trigger on the trade of veteran corner Carlton Davis to the Lions in March. McCollum isn't exactly an unknown commodity; due to injuries to both Davis and Dean, he started nine games last year and actually played the most defensive snaps of any Bucs cornerback (though not all at outside corner, as he also saw action in the slot and at safety).
The Bucs have some scary passing attacks on their slate in 2024, including the ones deployed by the 49ers, Lions and Cowboys. McCollum will be tasked with holding his own against the likes of Brandon Aiyuk, Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb. In 2023, with a frequently shifting lineup due to injuries and one unsettled safety spot, the Buccaneers ranked 29th in passing yards allowed (248.9) despite fielding an Associated Press first-team All-Pro at the other safety position in Antoine Winfield Jr. The team believes it has settled that second safety spot next to Winfield by bringing back Jordan Whitehead, and expects to have one of the NFL's better secondaries in 2024. That won't be possible without a strong campaign from McCollum, making him perhaps the X-Factor for the Bucs' defense this season.
