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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs' 2024 X-Factors, Part 1: Red Zone Stinginess, Rush D

The Bucs' defense was very stout in the red zone in 2023 and kept opposing ground games in check, and repeating both efforts could be key to the team's playoff hopes in 2024

Xfactor

One of the main reasons the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defied outside expectations and advanced to the Divisional Round of the playoffs in 2023 was the resurgence of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who was good enough to earn his first Pro Bowl invitation. That led to a lucrative multi-year deal in the offseason, and the Buccaneers are hoping he will be even better in 2024.

It's safe to say that the Bucs hopes for a fourth straight division title, and more, will be tied to how well Mayfield performs in his second season as the team's starter. And he won't be able to reach his peak if a new-look interior offensive line doesn't come together as expected. The defense will have to generate turnovers and pressure on the quarterback and the kicking game needs to at least be solid, as it was in 2023.

These things are obvious, but we want to dig a little deeper this week, the last one before the regular season begins and we start to get some answers. What we're looking for this week is "X-Factors," less obvious things on which the Bucs' 2024 season could turn. Each day, Staff Writer/Reporter Brianna Dix and I will trade ideas on what those X-Factors may be. So without further ado, I'll take the first shot today and Brianna will add her thoughts.

View photos of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers competing with the Miami Dolphins during joint practices on Wednesday, August 21, 2024.

Scott's X-Factor No. 1: The Bucs' red zone defense is as effective as it was in 2023.

Tampa Bay's defense was good in 2023, ranking in the league's top half in DVOA, as it has every season that Todd Bowles has been with the team. There was an interesting disparity for that unit, however, between the number of yards allowed and the (more important) number of points allowed. The Bucs ranked 23rd in yards allowed per game (344.2) but seventh in points allowed per game (19.1).

One main reason for this was an excellent showing by that defense when opponents managed to breach the red zone. The Bucs allowed touchdowns on just 42.6% of such drives, the third best mark in the NFL. They even turned away nine of those drives without giving up any points at all. The most memorable was against Atlanta in Week Seven, when Antoine Winfield Jr. somehow poked the ball out of the hands of Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder an instant before Ridder crossed the goal line for what would have been a game-clinching touchdown. (A similar play by Winfield in Carolina in Week 18 wasn't technically a red zone stop because D.J. Chark had run 42 yards before reaching the edge of the goal line.)

The Buccaneers will be facing some of the most potent offenses in the league in 2024, including San Francisco, Kansas City, Detroit, Baltimore, Dallas, Philadelphia and the L.A. Chargers. The division-rival Falcons have the makings of a higher-scoring offense, too, with the arrival of quarterback Kirk Cousins. It's likely unavoidable that the Bucs will be unable to keep all of those offenses from moving the ball. They key could be how well they defend the goal line.

Brianna's X-Factor No. 1: Run defense continues its reign of terror in the NFL like last season.

The Bucs' run defense, regarded as the team's calling card in recent years, once again finished atop the league's hierarchy in 2023. Tampa Bay allowed the fourth fewest rushing yards during last year's campaign and forced opponents to rely on an aerial attack. Although offensive weapons may often monopolize headlines in a pass-centric world, 'defenses win championships,' or so the adage goes. Three of the top Super Bowl contenders a year ago – Ravens, Chiefs, 49ers – allowed the fewest points per game. The Ravens fielded a dominant defense, arguably their best since the Ray Lewis and Ed Reed era.

Forcing the opposition to become one-dimensional in 2024 will play a critical role in the Bucs' success down the stretch. The Buccaneers' schedule includes three teams that finished in the top five in rushing a year ago: Ravens (2,661), 49ers (2,389) and Lions (2,311). They also face the Eagles, who came in at eighth-best (2,190), and the Falcons (ninth, 2,159). The Ravens responded well to first-year coordinator Todd Monken in 2023 and led the NFL in rushing for the third-consecutive year. Lamar Jackson, one of the most heralded dual threats in the game, cemented his place among the league's elite in 2023, earning a second MVP award. The Ravens acquired bruiser back Derrick Henry this offseason to bolster the running back room and he will create a steep task for the Bucs on Monday Night Football in Week Seven.

The 49ers primarily use a zone running scheme that relies on movement by the offensive line and players getting to the second level to block linebackers. With a variety of positionless players serving as eye candy pre-snap, including tight end George Kittle, hybrid Deebo Samuel, do-it-all phenom Christian McCaffrey and fullback Kyle Juszcyk, the 49ers will be a litmus test for the defensive unit in Week 10. Tampa Bay is forced to face some of the NFL's strongest remaining run-first teams and the key could very well be how well the unit holds up against the run.

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