After a rousing win in Detroit that signaled them as serious playoff candidates, the 2-0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers return home in Week Three to take on the 0-2 Denver Broncos. The two teams will clash at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday, September 22, with kickoff scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Buccaneers held onto a 20-16 decision at Ford Field, turning back three Lions drives deep into their territory in the last half of the fourth quarter. The offense struggled to keep Aidan Hutchinson away from Baker Mayfield, but the Bucs quarterback still threw a 41-yard touchdown pass to Chris Godwin and ran another one in himself for the game-winning score.
Denver tried to mount its own comeback at home in Week Two against Pittsburgh, kicking a pair of fourth-quarter field goals after going down 13-0. Will Lutz's second three-pointer came with 1:56 left in regulation and the Broncos elected not to try an onside kick in favor of going for a defensive stop and getting one more shot on offense. Unfortunately, even after succeeding with a three-and-out on defense, Bo Nix and the Broncos offense had only nine seconds to work with after getting the ball back on their own 19-yard line. Nix threw his fourth interception of the season two plays later.
While the Broncos offense has struggled with the 12th-overall pick at the helm, scoring just 26 points through two games, the Denver defense has kept them in both games so far. Denver has allowed the 11th fewest points per game (19.5) and 10th fewest yards per game (277.5) and has been particularly stingy against the pass. The Buccaneers will counter with a passing attack that ranks 13th in the league and an offense that has averaged 28.5 points per game.
The Buccaneers are seeking their first 3-0 start since 2005, while the Broncos are trying to avoid a second straight 0-3 opening. Here are four major storylines and four head-to-head player battles to keep an eye on as the Bucs get ready for a visit from the Broncos in Week Three.
TOP STORYLINES
Seeking 3-0 – As noted above, the Buccaneers have gone nearly two decades since their last 3-0 start, but they have an opportunity to end that drought on Sunday. Tampa Bay has started four previous seasons with three consecutive wins (1979, 1997, 2000 and 2005) and all four have ended in playoff appearances. According to the NFL Football Operations website, teams that start a season 3-0 can expect to make the playoffs approximately 76% of the time, as compared to 55% of the time after a 2-1 start. Perhaps more to the point, the New Orleans Saints have also rushed out to a 2-0 start, suggesting that the NFC South is going to be hotly contested as the Buccaneers go for their fourth straight division title. The Saints' next assignment is a home game on Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles, who just lost to another NFC South team, Atlanta, on Monday night. There are eight teams sitting at 2-0 after two weeks across the NFL, and only the Bucs' division and the AFC West (Kansas City, L.A. Chargers) have a pair of them. There are two games in Week Three that feature a pair of 2-0 opponents (Texans-Vikings, Chargers-Steelers), so there will be at most six teams that make it to 3-0. The only time in Buccaneers franchise history that Tampa Bay was the last undefeated team in the league was 1979, when the team started 5-0.
Sitting Dead Red – The Buccaneers won in Detroit despite surrendering 463 yards of offense to the Lions, and they are just the second team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win a game in which they were outgained by 200-plus yards and had a sack different of -5 or worse. How did they do it? By clamping down in the red zone. Detroit took seven drives inside the Buccaneers' 20-yard line but only scored a touchdown on one of them. Through two games, the Bucs have allowed touchdowns on 40% of their opponents drives into the red zone, and given last year's results, this does not appear to be a fluky outcome. In 2023, Tampa Bay's defense ranked third in red zone defense, allowing touchdowns 42.6% of the time. "We emphasize the red zone," said safety Christian Izien, who had an interception at the Bucs' nine-yard line on Sunday. "I think last year we were like top five in red zone defense as well. [It's] something that's important to us and bending not breaking, so making teams attempt to kick threes is the most important thing for us. We know if they don't score then we win most games, so just having a good idea of the concepts down there and playing fast on them." Denver's offense is dead last in the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage at 14.29%. All of these are small sample sizes, of course, but if the Bucs can consistently give up three points instead of seven – or, occasionally, no points at all – they will have a better chance to win against Denver and as the season progresses.
Another Rookie Quarterback – There were a record six quarterbacks selected in the first 12 picks of the 2024 draft, and the Buccaneers are getting acquainted with some of them right away. In Week One, the Tampa Bay defense had difficulty containing second-overall pick Jayden Daniels when he elected to run, which was often, but otherwise stifled the Washington offense. Week Three brings another one of those rookies to town, as Nix was the 12th player selected overall. Nix has good mobility – he leads the Broncos with 60 rushing yards on nine carries – but he's not the same caliber of runner as Daniels is. Nix's calling card at Oregon was his accuracy, as he set an FBS record in 2023 with a 77.4% completion percentage, exceeding 71% in every single game. He is indeed an accurate passer, but those numbers were also aided by Oregon's quick passing game, as 66.2% of his passes were completed within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Very early in his NFL career, he is commanding an offense with similar tendencies: His average air yards per completion is 3.9, sixth lowest among all quarterbacks with at least 20 passes this season. In Denver's Week Two loss to Pittsburgh, Nix attempted 12 passes that went more than 10 yards downfield and completed three of them for 90 yards while being intercepted twice. Tampa Bay's defense will need to be prepared to face the quick game and stop Broncos pass-catchers before they can add on yards after the catch.
Heavyweight Battle in the Secondary – Back in May, the Buccaneers signed Antoine Winfield Jr. to a new four-year contract that made him not only the highest-paid safety in the league but also the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history. He didn't get to wear that second crown for long, because the Broncos topped it with the new deal they gave fourth-year cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the ninth-overall pick in the 2021 draft. The Broncos were eager to lock Surtain in because he has ranked among the NFL's elite cornerbacks almost since the first game of his rookie season, during which he had four interceptions and 14 passes defensed. He went to make the Pro Bowl in each of the next two seasons and was an Associated Press first-team All-Pro in 2022. Through the first two gams of the season, the Broncos have used Surtain to shadow their opponents' top receivers. He covered Seattle's DK Metcalf on 24 of Metcalf's 25 routes in Week One and locked on to Pittsburgh's George Pickens on 11 of his 17 routes last Sunday. Since Chris Godwin, the Bucs' current leading receiver, is running the majority of his routes out of the slot, the Broncos are likely to assign Surtain to Mike Evans on the outside. Surtain used press coverage on about 37% of his coverage snaps against Metcalf and Pickens but may want to think otherwise against Evans. Evans has amassed the third-most yards (3,039) and the most touchdowns (38) against press coverage since 2016.
KEY MATCHUPS
- Broncos WR Josh Reynolds vs. Buccaneers CB Zyon McCollum
The Buccaneers traded starting cornerback Carlton Davis to the Lions in March in part because they believed third-year man Zyon McCollum was ready to step into an every-down role. So far, he has proven his supporters – chief among them Bucs Head Coach Todd Bowles – right. McCollum is coming off his best game as a pro, as he racked up four passes defense and an interception in the win over Detroit. McCollum was targeted five times by Jared Goff and only gave up one reception for four yards. A Scouting Combine star in 2022, McCollum is freakishly athletic, and at 6-2 he has the wide wingspan that Bowles prizes in his cornerback, and his game has grown as he has improved his grasp of the system and his down-to-down consistency. Denver overhauled its receiving corps in the offseason, trading Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland, releasing Tim Patrick and drafting two pass-catchers in April. The Broncos also signed former Lion Josh Reynolds, and he has emerged as the team's most productive receiver so far. While Courtland Sutton has more targets (16 to 13), Reynolds leads the team in catches (nine) and yards (138). Last year, Reynolds was a good complement to Amon-Ra St. Brown in Detroit, catching 40 passes for 608 yards and five touchdowns and averaging 15.2 yards per grab. He's similar in size to McCollum at 6-3 and 192 pounds and should be another good test for the Bucs' emerging cornerback.
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving vs. Broncos LB Alex Singleton
The Buccaneers struggled to run the ball in Detroit but were productive on the ground in the Week One win over Washington and clearly want to keep the offense balanced. Through two games, the Bucs have thrown 49 passes and have run the ball 53 times, which includes seven scrambles by Mayfield, so it's been close to a 50-50 approach so far. Rachaad White remains the starter and will get the lion's share of the work, but Irving currently leads the team with 84 rushing yards. He has been given 16 handoffs to 25 for White. Irving is a sudden and decisive runner who likes to make one cut before accelerating upfield. Singleton is the Broncos' leading tackler through two games with 20 stops, and 16 of those have come on running plays. Singleton finished third in the entire NFL last year with 175 tackles, so he clearly has a nose for the football. He has also already snagged an interception this season and has a hit on the quarterback, so he could be an issue for Irving in pass coverage and pass protection this Sunday.
- Broncos QB Bo Nix vs. Buccaneers S Christian Izien
Limiting the damage an opposing quarterback can cause isn't really a one-on-one matchup; it takes an entire defense. Still, unlike the Bucs' cornerbacks, Izien can always have his eyes on Nix on Sunday, and he'll be tasked with reading the quarterback's intentions and acting on them quickly. As noted above, Nix is a good runner and is almost certain to take off a handful of times on Sunday, particularly if the Buccaneers' pass rush can get near him early in his progressions. Izien snared his first interception of the season and the third of his career in Detroit, and is likely to be called on again in Week Three at free safety while Winfield continues his recovery from a foot injury. Izien is an instinctive player who can handle multiple positions and likes to play with extreme aggression. The book on Nix, as described above, is that he's an accurate passer who doesn't create a lot of turnovers, through he has been picked off four times through two games. The Broncos believe Nix has a very bright future as their long-term answer at the game's most important position, but almost every rookie quarterback has some ups and downs in his first season. The Bucs will try to make Sunday's game a learning experience for Nix.
- Buccaneers T Luke Goedeke (or Justin Skule) vs. Broncos OLB Jonathon Cooper
Goedeke missed the Buccaneers' Week Two game in Detroit due to a concussion, which was diagnosed on Wednesday. He did not clear the league's concussion protocol by the end of the week, but the Bucs will be hopeful that he can make it back into the lineup on Sunday. If not, Skule will start a second game at right tackle and will have to engage in some intense battles with Cooper, who leads Denver with 2.0 sacks. Goedeke began his NFL career playing left guard in 2022 but has been a revelation since moving back to tackle, his college position. While the Lions' Aidan Hutchinson proved practically unstoppable in Detroit, Goedeke and the Bucs' line did a great job of keeping Mayfield clean against Washington in Week One. Goedeke is an athletic lineman who can block on the run, and his competitive streak is inspiring to the rest of the offense. Cooper has 11 tackles, two tackles for loss and four quarterback hits to go with his pair of sacks, and he was credited with five quarterback pressures last weekend against Pittsburgh's Justin Fields. Originally a seventh-round pick in 2021, Cooper had a breakout season last year as a full-time starter, recording 8.5 sacks and 13 quarterback hits. He generally rushes from the left side of Denver's defensive front, so whether it's Goedeke or Skule the Bucs' right tackle will have his hands full on Sunday.
Another Key Storyline this week is our Moffitt Stories of Courage special guest, Jeff Foley. In the midst of an arduous transition from New York to Florida, Jeff's life took another unexpected turn when his wife noticed a peculiar mole on his back. At first, the mole was nothing more than a minor nuisance and amidst the chaos of moving and new job responsibilities, it became a distant worry. But in December '22, just days before Christmas, Jeff received the crushing diagnosis that that mole had become stage 3 melanoma. The battle that followed was grueling: four surgeries, twelve rounds of immunotherapy, and additional health challenges. Yet, through it all, Jeff embraced his mantra of "living while I'm alive." He continued to find joy in life's simple pleasures—sports, family outings, and shared moments with his wife and three children. His strength and unwavering faith guided him through this tough journey. Now months in remission, he reflects on his journey with a renewed purpose. His story is now a beacon of hope in his book, "Healed on the Inside," which stands as a testament to his resilience! We are honored to host Jeff and his wife at this week's game.
